Super Bowl 58 Player Prop Bets: Best Isiah Pacheco Odds For Chiefs Vs. 49ers

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Written By Jeffrey Schreiber | Last Updated
isiah pacheco props

The Super Bowl 58 matchup is set as the San Francisco 49ers will face the Kansas City Chiefs for the NFL’s Vince Lombardi Trophy. Super Bowl 58 betting odds are available now across betting sites. An extreme array of player props (literally hundreds) are being offered across sportsbooks. Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco props are certainly popular amongst football bettors this week. Do his odds hold any potential value?

Below, you will find all available Isiah Pacheco props for Super Bowl 58. Keep reading for an in-depth analysis & breakdown on which props are worthy of going over/under in this matchup.

Isiah Pacheco Player props: Best Available odds

Scroll through the table to find the best odds for each player prop, and click to bet now.

Pacheco Over or Under Rushing Yards?

The 49ers have struggled to stop the run this season, ranking 24th in rushing success rate and 26th in EPA, allowing 4.33 yards per carry. San Francisco’s weakness to opposing running games nearly cost them twice in the playoffs. The Packers and Lions demolished the 49ers on the ground, rushing for 111 yards (4.62 yards per carry) and 182 yards on 29 carries (6.27 yards per carry).

Like the 49ers offense, the Chiefs skew towards zone running concepts. The 49ers’ run defense has allowed 4.45 yards per carry and a 53.7% success rate (31st) on zone concept runs. The Chiefs have also run out of shotgun on nearly 70% of carries this season, averaging 4.92 yards per carry. The 49ers have been about league average at defending runs from that formation but still allow 4.6 yards per carry and are below average in stuff rate. They also have allowed a lot of yards after contact at 2.74 per attempt. This doesn’t bode well for them against the violent-running Pacheco, averaging 2.77 yards after contact per carry.

It’s worth noting that the one area of run defense that the 49ers excel at is on runs “guard-to-guard” on the interior. Defending those runs, San Francisco has allowed 3.9 YPC (12th) to running backs, allowing 0.92 yards before contact (third in the league). The Chiefs need to emphasize drawing Pacheco away from these runs if they want to have success on the ground.

Pacheco has eclipsed 68 rushing yards in four straight games. So, there are several reasons why betting on his over here makes sense.

Pacheco Over or Under  Rushing attempts?

PrizePicks Promo: Pacheco Higher Than 49.5 Rush Yards ($100 Bonus With Code THELINES)

Pacheco has been dominating the backfield work over the last several games. Since the Bengals game in Week 17, Pacheco has handled 89% of the running back carries for the Chiefs and topped 16.5 attempts in three of his last four games. His one under during that span came against Buffalo when he rushed 15 times in a game in which the Chiefs only ran 47 plays on offense. Given the success both Green Bay and Detroit had on the ground against this defense, it makes sense for the Chiefs to attack the 49ers with the running game, which should mean many attempts for Pacheco.

Feeding Pacheco the rock in this game shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. Pacheco topped 200 carries during the regular season, which is something a Chiefs RB has never done in the Patrick Mahomes era.

Pacheco Over or Under Receiving Yards

Pacheco has not exceeded 17 receiving yards in any postseason game. He has hit 14 yards once, and had minus-1 yard in the wild-card round. He’s averaging two catches per game in the playoffs. Add all of this to a potential return of pass-catching specialist RB Jerick McKinnon, and it makes me cautious to bet the over here.

Pacheco Over or Under Receptions

Underdog Picks: Higher or Lower Than 3.0 Receptions ($100 Deposit Match With Promo Code THELINES)

This prop is the one to attack when it comes to Pacheco’s receiving props. Although Pacheco’s receptions haven’t gone for many yards, he has been getting passes thrown his way. Pacheco caught four passes last week and finished the 2023 regular season with four consecutive games of three or more receptions. It doesn’t hurt that the 49ers allowed the sixth-most receptions to opposing RBs this season.

Will Isiah Pacheco Score An Anytime Touchdown?

When betting on any player to score a TD, we need opportunity data to make a strong case for that player. Pacheco enters Super Bowl Sunday with 20 or more touches in six of his last eight games. Scoring TDs has been a common occurrence for the second-year RB, scoring eight total TDs over his last seven games.

With the 49ers struggling to stop the run paired with Pacheco’s bell cow role, it shouldn’t be surprising to see the Rutgers product crossing the goal line in the Super Bowl.

Best of luck betting Isiah Pacheco odds this Sunday!

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