Best Euro 2024 Bets: Turkey vs. Netherlands, England vs. Switzerland Saturday
The Euro 2024 quarterfinals conclude Saturday, and after a decent few weeks of betting tips, I’ve picked out the best Euro 2024 bets for Turkey vs. Netherlands and England vs. Portugal, using Expected Goals (xG) to highlight teams and best bets I expect to win. England vs. Switzerland kicks off first, followed by the Turkiye vs. Netherlands match, but Turkey’s Man of the Match from its Round of 16 win is suspended by UEFA.
I have bet one unit on each of the following selections unless stated otherwise on these Euro 2024 odds.
Click on the odds below to bet now. For more betting markets for today’s games, go to our England vs. Switzerland odds and Netherlands vs. Turkey odds posts. Sports betting enthusiasts can claim big Euro 2024 sportsbook promos, too, including a new one at Fanatics Sportsbook.
Best Euro 2024 Bets: England vs. Switzerland
England To Win
Matchday 2 of the quarterfinals sees the weaker side of the draw take to the field. Arguably, the best four teams at the tournament so far were in the other two quarters – none of France, Spain, Germany, or Netherlands had lost on xG entering this round of play.
As for this side of the draw, England are the best of the four and were pre-tournament favourites. However, they haven’t quite reached the heights expected of them and find themselves odds against to beat Switzerland in the 90 and progress to the semifinals without the need of extra time or a penalty shootout.
Despite England’s stuttering start to the competition, I believe there’s value in backing them in this game. England’s xG difference throughout Euro 2024 is +0.83(xG) compared to Switzerland’s -0.01(xG).
The Swiss have had a strange four games. They excelled in their opener against Hungary and in the Round of 16 against Italy, but struggled to break down a poor Scotland team and got thoroughly outplayed by Germany. Yes, Germany needed a stoppage time goal to salvage a point, but Switzerland only cobbled together 33% possession and four shots to the Germans’ 18, losing corners 9-2.
I expect England to click into gear and, as such, will be backing them in this match.
Over 2.5 Total Goals (+163)
Yes, you read correctly. No, that is not a typo.
Having correctly tipped Under 2.5 Goals in every England game so far, I am now backing Over 2.5 in their quarterfinal against Switzerland. Let me explain why.
Firstly, the price has shifted massively since the first few games of the tournament. Over 2.5 Goals was an odds-on shot in most of the previous games, but the price of +163 offers value.
Secondly, there were signs against Slovakia that England had opened up and played a slightly more risk-taking style of football. Indeed, that game saw both sides create 2.62(xG) between them. If the same happens in this game, then suddenly the odds look very favourable indeed.
Moreover, the nature of the Knockout Stage in football is such that a trailing team is likely to throw players forward, like Romania did against the Netherlands, meaning goals can come late in games.
This tip might come back to haunt me, but I’m backing Over 2.5 in England vs. Switzerland.
Best Euro 2024 Bets: Turkey vs. Netherlands
Over Total Goals (-125)
My final tip on the second matchday of the quarterfinals is also an Over 2.5 Goals bet, this time in Netherlands v Turkey.
I expect the Dutch to win this tie comfortably. They have an impressive +2.77 xG difference after their first four games, and really seemed to hit their stride in a convincing win (and xG win) against Romania on Wednesday.
Turkey, on the other hand, are the worst-performing team left in the tournament. The only game they’ve won so far on xG was against Georgia (the worst-rated team) in the opening game. Moreover, they conceded 9.06(xG) at Euro 2024—only the aforementioned Georgia have conceded more.
Turkey defender Merih Demiral has also been suspended for two games by UEFA after he celebrated a goal at Euro 2024 by displaying a hand sign associated with an ultranationalist group. Demiral scored both goals in the Round of 16 win against Austria.
I expect a big Netherlands win here and will be backing Over 2.5 Goals at favourable odds.
Best of luck with your Euro 2024 bets.
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Euro 2024 Teams
Looking for futures or Group Odds for Euro 2024? Click on the team profiles below to find them.
| Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D | Group E | Group F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | Spain | England | France | Belgium | Portugal |
| Switzerland | Italy | Denmark | Netherlands | Ukraine | Turkey |
| Hungary | Croatia | Serbia | Austria | Romania | Czech Republic |
| Scotland | Albania | Slovenia | Poland | Slovakia | Georgia |
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