Best Euro 2024 Bets For Spain Vs. Germany, France vs. Portugal Friday

Written By The xG Philosophy | Last Updated
best euro 2024 bets

The Euro 2024 quarterfinals are here, and after a decent few weeks of betting tips, we’ve picked out the best Euro 2024 bets for Spain vs. Germany and France vs. Portugal, using Expected Goals (xG) to highlight teams and players who we expect to perform well.

I have bet one unit on each of the following selections unless stated otherwise on these Euro 2024 odds.

Click on the odds below to bet now. For more betting markets for today’s games, go to our Spain vs. Germany odds and France vs. Portugal odds posts. Sports betting enthusiasts can claim big Euro 2024 sportsbook promos, too, including a new one at Fanatics Sportsbook.

Best Euro 2024 Bets: Spain Vs. Germany

Over Total Goals (+108)

The quarterfinals begin with possibly the two best teams at the tournament so far going head to head. Spain and Germany have been arguably the two most impressive teams at this year’s tournament. Both sides have won all four of their matches on xG—two of only four teams to do so.

What’s more, these two teams have created a plethora of chances between them. 

Spain have created 9.14(xG) over their four matches, the most of any team at the tournament. This stat is even more impressive considering they’ve faced tough nations like Italy and Croatia along the way.

Germany have created 9.01(xG) in this competition, second only to Spain’s figure. They’ve also faced relatively difficult opposition in Switzerland and Denmark on their journey so far.

All signals point to this being an open game with two attacking teams who love to create chances. As such, I’ll be backing Over 2.5 goals +105 odds.

Best Euro 2024 Bets: France vs. Portugal

France To Win

The second game of Quarterfinal Matchday 1 is also set up to be an absolute classic, and we’ve got a strong fancy in this one.

I can’t understand why France are such long odds to beat a Portugal side that scraped through the Round of 16 against Slovenia, having previously been beaten 2-0 by Georgia.

France’s Expected Goals Difference (xGD) is +5.00 over their four games, while Portugal’s is +3.86.

At the beginning of the tournament, France were much shorter odds than Portugal to triumph, and their xG performances have been better than their opponents. So, I’m surprised that the odds here aren’t weighed more in France’s favour.

The odds of for France to win this game in the 90 are too good to ignore.

France vs. Portugal Over Goals (+142)

France were billed as pre-tournament favourites by many, but on the surface, it looks like they haven’t caught fire yet. They’ve only scored three goals so far. Two of them were own goals, and one was a penalty.

However, the xG data tells a different story. The French have been creating chances at will but have simply struggled to find the back of the net. They’ve created 7.75(xG), the third most in the entire competition. 

The fact that these shots have only resulted in one goal from their players is a statistical fluke. 

Similarly, Portugal created 2.19(xG) against Slovenia over the 120 minutes without finding the net. The bookies’ price is likely swayed by the lack of goals both sides have been scoring, but in reality, they are a lot more attacking than it appears.

I expect both teams’ chance creation to convert into goals soon. So I am tipping over 2.5 goals in this clash.

Best of luck with your Euro 2024 bets.

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