Best Colts vs. Patriots Player Prop Bets For NFL Week 10 In Germany: Can Jonathan Taylor Rush For 70 Yards?
The NFL international games wrap up Sunday morning as the Indianapolis Colts face the New England Patriots in Frankfurt, Germany. Player props for this game started popping up in the middle of the week, giving NFL fans plenty of time to gauge their favorites. The Colts are a spread favorite, with the Patriots on the moneyline to win the game. The Over in Colts games is 6-3 on the season, so we could see a lot of overs on props. Let’s dig into the Colts-Patriots player props.
COLTS VS. PATRIOTS PLAYER PROPS
Which Colts And Patriots Players Will Score A Touchdown Today?
Colts WR Josh Downs Over Receiving Yards
Please note Josh Downs (knee) was a back-to-back DNP on the injury report Wednesday and Thursday and requires monitoring his status before kickoff. If he plays, it’s a good spot for getting over this yardage total.
With Patriots cornerback JC Jackson not making the trip overseas, Colts receivers may flourish in this game. Since joining New England, Jackson has recorded his best games of the season, most notably against Buffalo in Week 7 and against Washington in Week 9. Conventional wisdom would make us think Michael Pittman’s over would be playable in this scenario. It could still very well hit, but advanced metrics paint a different picture. Even with the turnstile at the cornerback position, the Pats rank second in defensive DVOA against WR1s, only trailing Cleveland. Bill Belichick is known for taking away the number one option. Enter Josh Downs.
For starters, Downs has had some of his best games with Gardner Minshew as the Colts starter. He burned the Browns’ terrific defense for 125 yards in October, and two weeks ago, he notched 72 yards against a stout Saints secondary. Aiding his over is the fact that New England’s defense ranks 27th in DVOA against WR2s this season. Their profile on defense is simple: they limit your best offensive playmaker and get torched by your secondary options.
Patriots WR Demario Douglas Over Receptions
Over the last three weeks, Douglas has quietly emerged as Mac Jones’ favorite target. He’s notched 20 targets during this span, including seven in last week’s loss to the Commanders, where he caught five passes for 55 yards. Since leading receiver Kendrick Bourne tore his ACL against Miami, Douglas has inherited a larger role as an outside receiver.
Last week against the Commanders, 34 of his snaps were from the outside, while only 19 snaps saw him lined up in the slot. Because of his newfound versatility, it’s difficult to project who he’ll line up across from most of the game. However, this season, slot cornerback Kenny Moore II is the Colts’ highest-graded coverage corner. Rotating Douglas to the outside will increase the likelihood he goes over this number.
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor Under Rushing Yards
Despite a slew of injuries on the defensive side of the ball this year, the New England run defense has been particularly stout. With garbage time filtered out, they rank third in rush EPA and 2nd in rush success rate. Belichick’s squad has quietly been one of the best teams against the run this season. They also rank second in yards per carry allowed, giving up a mere 3.5 yards per rush. Although the Colts’ offensive line grades out as the sixth-best run-blocking unit in the NFL (via PFF), I struggle to believe they’ll succeed in this game.
In Week 1, the Patriots faced a similarly tough offensive line in the Eagles and held their top running back to 54 yards on the ground. I’ll gladly take the under here on Taylor, especially with Zack Moss still filtering carries behind him.
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|Offense Ranking OFF RNK||14th||27th|
|Defense Ranking DEF RNK||24th||7th|
|Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG||342.5||291.4|
|Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG||355.3||306.9|
|Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG||226.7||189.5|
|Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG||1.5||1.6|
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