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Expert Picks To Consider For bet365 Promo Code On Sunday
Buffalo vs. Baltimore Preview
Later on Sunday, the surging Bills head south to Baltimore to play the Ravens. The Bills have been dominant the last two weeks, even before Tua got hurt in Week 2. Their demolition of the Jaguars has elevated Josh Allen to 1st in Dropback EPA for the season, and reassured some doubts that the Bills were too run heavy. Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir stepping up helps reassure that the loss of Stefon Diggs hasn’t really mattered.
More importantly, the Bills defense is surviving the talent exodus of this offseason and even thriving. They’re Top 10 in both EPA and Success Rate, and they’ve played three QBs who at least should be good. Arguably, Lamar Jackson is the stiffest test of the three, but it’s not exactly like Lamar is lighting the world on fire this season.
Lamar’s fine so far – 11th by Dropback EPA, 10th by Success Rate – but a lot of that came from the fact that he was hyper effective last week running on the worst rush defense in football. In Weeks 1 and 2 combined, Lamar was 21st in EPA. Last week, he was 3rd, largely because he rushed for 6.2 yards/carry. Whether he can be effective against the Bills, when he’s unlikely to be up the entire game long, is unclear.
Minnesota vs. Green Bay Preview
Minnesota has been one of the best surprises of the season, led by a rejuvenated Sam Darnold. Led by Darnold, the Vikings are 3-0 and absolutely mauled the Texans last week. The Vikings have created a QB friendly offensive scheme that is helping Darnold be 8th in the league in EPA, and the defense is 3rd by EPA and 4th by Success Rate. And they’ve done it against two preseason projected top 10 offenses the last two weeks, too – this isn’t statpadding bad teams.
The problem for the Vikings is that the Packers might have put together their best defense in a decade. 9th by EPA so far, their defense effectively neutralized Indianapolis and Tennessee the last two weeks. It seems plausible to attribute some of the coverage lapses in Brazil to the horrible turf, given how much tighter coverages have been. They’ve just won two games as underdogs with Malik Willis at QB. Now they go back home and have Jordan Love back.
The big test will be whether or not the Packers can stop Justin Jefferson. Yes, the Packers effectively shut down Michael Pittman two weeks ago, but he is a class or two down of receiver than Jefferson. If you believe that the Brazil game has any predictive value – and I cannot stress how much I don’t, given the turf conditions – then Jefferson can probably go off. AJ Brown went for 5 and 119 with a touchdown, which would be crucial for the Vikings if Jefferson can duplicate it. Without a big Jefferson game Green Bay could be on top of the NFC North.
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