On Tuesday night, the major six remaining Democratic presidential hopefuls (sans Michael Bloomberg) took the stage for a debate in Iowa.
News outlets like CNN and tracking sites such as 538 seemed to agree that Sen. Bernie Sanders was not a winner of the debate (that honor goes to Sen. Elizabeth Warren). However, despite his mixed debate performance, Sanders’ 2020 presidential elections odds have surged.
Sanders priced evenly with Joe Biden
Major European sportsbooks now have Sanders even or ahead of former VP Joe Biden. Sanders’ moneyline odds are landing at +500 on average. Biden is priced around +550.
Why the jump in odds? Honestly, 🤷♂️.
Sanders is currently projected for a second-place Iowa finish. If he had a commanding lead in Iowa, a case could be made that he’d ride that wave of momentum through New Hampshire and the remaining primaries. Sanders did surprise in Iowa in 2016, taking 49.59% of the vote to Hillary Clinton’s 49.84%. The state has backed him before and his message still resonates with voters there.
Sanders’ support appears to be coming at the expense of Mayor Pete Buttigieg. While Buttigieg did turn in a solid debate performance, his Iowa numbers have dropped and it’s impacting his presidential odds. Once moving as high as +1100, Mayor Pete’s odds have gone long to the +2200 to +2500 range.
President Trump’s odds keep improving
Maybe because support still hasn’t coalesced around one Democratic contender, or because of his dealings with Iran, or because of unemployment being at an all-time low, ooorrrrrrrrrrr because of his trade deal with China (or a combination of it all), President Trump is witnessing an all-time high for his re-election odds.
Trump is now listed at -143 to win the 2020 election at betway.
Given that his election odds actually improved during the initial impeachment process, his continued momentum should not come as a surprise.
Whoever does win the Democratic primary horse race will have his or her work cut out to unseat the incumbent President.