PGA TOUR Odds: 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship Preview At Port Royal Golf Course
The PGA TOUR’s FedEx Fall Series sets sail for Bermuda, with Port Royal GC next on tap to host the 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Find PGA TOUR golf odds at the best betting sites to increase your potential Butterfield Bermuda Championship payouts. Adam Scott and Lucas Glover project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.
Bermuda, best known for its grass, shorts, and triangles, is the next stop on the “International” swing during the Fall series after stops in Japan and Mexico in the past two weeks. It’ll be a long flight from Cabo to Port Royal Golf Course for players continuing to jockey for position at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
Handicapping PGA TOUR odds in a weaker field will be challenging this week. Despite its beautiful backdrop on the Atlantic Ocean, this tournament has proven to be one of the most weather-impacted of any on TOUR.
When winds are down, this is a short course that has rewarded shorter plodders in the field. But when the winds are up, the bombers can find separation from the field. That, in short, explains how players like Brian Gay & Brendon Todd and Lucas Herbert & Taylor Pendrith have enjoyed similar success at this event despite being opposite player types.
Ahead, we’ll dive further into all the need-to-know details at Port Royal GC before betting golf odds.
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BUTTERFIELD BERMUDA CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: THE FAVORITES
PGA Tour • 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Odds updated November 12th, 2023, at 12:25 pm
BUTTERFIELD BERMUDA CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: FIELD AT A GLANCE
Certainly a bottom-tier event in the FedEx Cup Fall series from a strength-of-field standpoint, the Butterfield Bermuda Championship is at least trending in a better direction compared to 2022. With weather and COVID-related travel complications, last year’s field featured just four players inside the OWGR top 100.
With more significant stakes for players seeking a top-60 FedEx Cup ranking to qualify for 2024 Signature Events or top-125 status to maintain their TOUR cards, we’ll see a more competitive field in 2023. Adam Scott and Lucas Glover headline as the two clear favorites for this week’s event. They’re joined by Brendon Todd, Alex Noren, Lucas Herbert, Alex Smalley, Luke List, Thomas Detry, and Mark Hubbard to represent nine OWGR top-100 players in this week’s field.
Defending champion Seamus Power could not be bothered to make an appearance for his title defense. However, all prior champions of this event (Lucas Herbert, Brendon Todd, and Brian Gay) are back to chase a second title.
INTRODUCTION TO PORT ROYAL GC
Port Royal Golf Course is a Robert Trent Jones-designed public course in Southampton, Bermuda. It has hosted the Bermuda Championship each year since 2020.
The elements will always play a significant factor in determining a winner at the Bermuda Championship. Last year, this event offered little resistance to the field for the first two days but kept scoring relatively in check over the weekend as winds picked up. The year prior, Taylor Pendrith gave up a sizable lead on Sunday, playing through afternoon rain and wind that eventually forced a temporary stoppage. So, while the scorecard yardage and hole layouts may not look intimidating, the ability to fly tee shots and approach through the wind and navigate steep elevation changes are unique skill sets needed at Port Royal GC.
Currently, the forecast looks similar to last year, with moderate wind on Thursday and Friday and greater gusts over the weekend. As always, whenever playing a coastal golf course, it will be key to monitor the weather throughout tournament week.
How It Breaks Down
At 6,828 yards, Port Royal GC is the shortest par-71 on TOUR and the second shortest overall, behind only TPC River Highlands. It has produced consistent results from short-course specialists like Brendon Todd, Brian Gay, and Ryan Armour. With that said, we’ve also seen an advantage to bombers when the elements pick up, given the persistence of headwinds on this highly exposed coastal setup.
In short, this layout has proven to be very forgiving off-the-tee, with intermittent winds and regular elevation changes offering the most significant challenge to players on their approaches. Skilled ball strikers who are experienced in flighting approach shots in windy conditions and those who excel putting on Bermuda greens have gone on to find success historically at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
PORT ROYAL GOLF COURSE SPECS
- Yards: 6,828
- Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
- Greens: Bermuda
- Architect: Robert Trent Jones
- Historical Cut Line: Even
- Comp Courses: PGA National, Pebble Beach, Corales GC, Coco Beach, El Camaleon, Sea Island GC, Waialae CC
- Past Winners: Seamus Power -19 (’23), Lucas Herbert -15 (’22), Brian Gay -15 (’21), Brendon Todd -24 (’20)
- Hole-by-hole Breakdown:
COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS
Brian Gay is the unofficial Mayor of Bermuda, finishing T11, T3, 1st, and T12 in his first four appearances. This is seemingly the only course he can play well on anymore, as a lack of preceding form has not mattered for him entering this event.
After Gay, the rest of the top 10 in Course History at Port Royal GC in this week’s field is rounded out by Brendon Todd, Thomas Detry, Lucas Herbert, Justin Lower, Stewart Cink, Russell Knox, Peter Malnati, Ben Griffin, and Kevin Yu.
I lean towards PGA National, host of the Honda Classic, as the top overall comp to Port Royal GC. Both courses are played on Bermuda greens, exposed to high winds and rain, and reward driving distance despite the lack of overall scorecard yardage.
PGA National aside, Pebble Beach, Corales GC, Coco Beach, El Camaleon, Sea Island GC, and Waialae CC all share coastal layouts, heavily influenced by the wind on similar agronomy and similar field strengths. El Cardonal, host of last week’s WWT Championship, will also be a helpful reference point for players looking to continue their trending form on an easy, coastal, wind-exposed layout.
Combine performance across this list, and the top-10 players in Comp Course History here are Thomas Detry, Adam Scott, Alex Smalley, Mackenzie Hughes, Brendon Todd, Ben Martin, David Lingmerth, Will Gordon, Ryan Palmer, and Andrew Novak.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER BEFORE BETTING PGA TOUR ODDS
- SG: T2G (Recent Form)
- Driving Distance
- Good Drives Gained / Driving Accuracy
- SG: APP / SG: Ball Striking
- SG: ARG
- SG: TOT (High Winds)
- Par-3 Scoring
- SG: P (L36, Bermuda)
- Course & Comp Course History
Reviewing the first four years of play at Port Royal Golf Club, the stats that have proven most predictive of success are immediate form (SG: T2G, L24), SG: APP, SG: TOT (High Winds), Comp Course History, and SG: P (Bermuda). There are just nine players in this week’s field who rank above average in each of these categories: Brendon Todd, Mark Hubbard, Adam Scott, Chad Ramey, Alex Noren, Aaron Baddeley, Chesson Hadley, Justin Lower, and Patton Kizzire.
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Adam Scott
I’m not going out on much of a limb here to say that I like Adam Scott’s chances to contend against a field this devoid of talent or proven winners. But I think that’s the point of handicapping an event like the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. There are only so many players in this field who know how to win a PGA TOUR event, and Scott’s resume stands head and shoulders above the rest in Bermuda.
The newest member of TGL’s Boston Common club, Scott has a reputation to uphold as he braces for a field well beneath him. Currently ranking No. 85 in the FedEx standings, Scott’s commitment to the Butterfield Bermuda Championship indicates that he is making a final push towards the top 60, which would ensure his qualification amongst his peers in the 2024 Signature Events.
Though making his debut at this event, it’s a setup that should play perfectly into his strengths of elite ball striking, wind management, and Bermuda putting. Scott ranks top-2 in Comp Course History, Weighted Putting, Birdies or Better Gained, and SG: TOT (High Winds). And despite Scott’s reputation and long-term form, there’s reason to suspect he will not be the odds-on favorite, considering he has two missed cuts and a T41 finish within his last four international starts.
Last year, Seamus Power won as the highest-ranked player in the field, chasing down rookie Ben Griffin as he faltered under pressure down the closing stretch on Sunday. I can envision a similar path to victory for Scott this year and feel comfortable riding out a tighter card with the Australian veteran at the helm, assuming he’s available at 12-1 odds or longer.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR AT THE 2023 BUTTERFIELD BERMUDA CHAMPIONSHIP
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the PGA TOUR odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.
In my model, I’m emphasizing Course & Comp Course History, SG: T2G, SG: APP, SG: Ball Striking, and SG: P (L36 & Bermuda), followed by a more balanced mix of Good Drives Gained, SG: TOT (High Winds), and SG: ARG.
Winner of the Bermuda Championship’s inaugural event in 2020, it’s Brendon Todd who emerges in the No. 1 spot of my model this week. I like Todd’s chances if the calmer conditions remain, as putting contest conditions like the ones we saw in 2020 would cater best to his strengths. In any case, his consistency in comp courses and elite approach form makes him an intriguing consideration again in 2023.
After Todd, the rest of my model’s top 10 features Mark Hubbard, Adam Scott, Chad Ramey, Alex Noren, Lucas Glover, Alex Smalley, Nate Lashley, Doug Ghim, and Ben Griffin.
When the odds opened on Monday, I bet Adam Scott 18-1 at BetRivers to start a shorter card. I’m also eying longshots like Aaron Baddeley and Cameron Percy, depending on where the odds ultimately go. You can always get immediate notifications when I make a bet in our free Discord.
Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck betting Bermuda Championship odds!
COMPLETE PGA TOUR ODDS: BUTTERFIELD BERMUDA CHAMPIONSHIP
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