Bengals vs. Bills Props: 3 To Consider For NFL Divisional Playoffs

Written By Brett Gibbons on January 22, 2023
Bengals Bills props

The game we’ve been waiting all season to see is on our doorstep. Joe Burrow squares off against Josh Allen with a seat in the AFC Championship on the line. The Cincinnati Bengals visit the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Divisional Round on Sunday at 3:00 p.m. ET. With star-studded skill positions, this game will certainly be one of the most-viewed and most-bet on game in terms of Bengals vs. Bills props this weekend.

Currently, the Bills are favorites at home and the over/under sits at .

Bengals vs. Bills Props

Click the dropdown menu to browse player props for this game and find the best lines and prices across sportsbooks. Click on any of the odds to make a bet now.

Prop Strategy

Despite two high-octane offenses, this game doesn’t feature the weekend’s highest over/under. The Bills continue to see market movement in their favor after this number opened Bills -3.5. The point total, however, has remained the same.

A possible cause? Pessimistic news on the Cincinnati offensive line, which is down three starters. Those injuries are worth monitoring and will undoubtably have an effect on Bengals offensive props in the game.

With a methodical offense and a Bengals’ defense that’s one of the best at halftime adjustments, full game props on passing yards and the likes makes for a dicey prop bet. We’ll visit that below. Let’s look at some other non-obvious routes to take.

Bengals At Bills Props To Target

Joe Burrow Over Rushing Yards

Best available odds: Over/Under /

Luckily for this prop, sacks don’t count against rushing yards in the NFL. Without Jonah Williams at left tackle and Alex Kappa inside, Burrow is going to be taking a lot of sacks. The other thing he’s going to be doing a lot of: running for his life. Jackson Carman stepped in for Williams, who dislocated his knee in the AFC Wild Card game, and had his lunch money taken on every snap. In just 16 pass set snaps, Carman allowed a sack, a pressure, and got called for a penalty.

Burrow nearly set a record for most times sacked through five postseason games last week. Baltimore got to him four times and could have been more if not for Burrow’s top-notch escapability and pocket presence.

The deficiency comes at left tackle, as many QB’s do as it’s their blind side. Gregory Rousseau is the Bills’ primary blindside rusher, lining up there 87.5% of snaps this year. He leads the defensive line with seven sacks and 41 total pressures. In the AFC Wild Card round against the Dolphins, Rousseau logged six pressures.

All of that to say, Burrow is going to be under duress a lot. He’s a strong runner when he needs to be, and this game likely dictates him to run more than usual.

Tyler Boyd Over Receiving Yards

Best available odds: Over/Under / )

First and foremost, FanDuel Sportsbook offers this prop as high as 38.5 (-114). You can find it as low as 36.5 (-110) to get the best number.

Instead of aDOT and targets per route run and the usual indicators of projecting receiving production, I want to look at scheme. The Bills run a lot of Cover 2 (two high safeties) and what’s called “Quarter-Quarter-Half” or “Cover 6.” While it’s a zone concept, oftentimes the cornerback is asked to “ride” the backside receiver, especially a lone receiver in a 3×1 set. So it’s more beneficial to consider performance vs. man coverage when looking at potential isolated receivers like Boyd against this coverage.

In man coverage, Boyd’s target share increases from 23.7% to 29%. He’ll also draw the eyes of the No. 3 corner more often than not thanks to his counterparts Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Building off the assumption that Burrow is going to face a lot of pressure, the ball’s going to need to come out quickly.

Where do you go with quick reads against zone? Quick slants, hot routes, and the likes to the isolated or backside receiver. While Higgins, Chase, and Boyd will all occupy this backside receiver, Boyd has the best chance to break it given his likely matchup.

First Half Over 24 Points

Best available odds:

I alluded to this earlier. Over 24 first half points (+100 at FanDuel Sportsbook) is one of my favorite bets on the board in this game. Finding value in half point totals typically comes from finding asymmetry between the full-game and half over/under. In this instance, it comes from a quick pace of play analysis against the full-game total.

At 48.5 points, 24.5 would be an expected first-half total, but even 23.5 (juiced) exists out there. The odds in this case assume the second half of the game will the higher scoring and, in a playoff game with as much firepower as this, that may be a reasonable assumption. With the Bills now favored by almost a touchdown, the Bengals are expected to play from behind.

As I laid out in my Bengals vs. Bills betting preview, Cincinnati runs the second-slowest pace when trailing by 7+ points (seconds/play). They also run the fourth-slowest offense in second halves. It’s why I decided to bet over 24 first half points, which is less than half of the full-game total. That’s based on an assumption that the second half will be the higher-scoring of the two, which all metrics point to likely not being the case barring overtime.

Perhaps a final flawed way of approaching this: In 6.5 minutes of play in Week 17, the two teams combined for 10 points and the Bengals were again driving.

Best of luck betting Bengals vs. Bills props and the rest of the NFL Playoffs.

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Brett Gibbons Avatar
Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons