Benfica Vs. Inter: 2022-23 Champions League Quarterfinal Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey | Last Updated April 11, 2023

Benfica and Inter kick off the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals on Tuesday, April 11. The match begins at 3 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on streaming platforms including fuboTV, Paramount+ and Univision. The winner will have the edge before the second leg, which takes place April 19 in Italy. As part of TheLines‘ soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match.

Benfica Vs. Inter Champions League Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

If the aggregate-goal score after two legs is tied, there will be two 15-minute periods of extra time. However, it’s possible for a Champions League match to go to extra time with a Leg 2 score that was not tied. In this case, three-way moneyline bets for Leg 2 are graded for the team that leads after 90 minutes.

If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out on the team to move on to the next round, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

Benfica Team Preview

Benfica has certainly impressed in this season’s edition of the Champions League. Qualifying out of a group that also included both PSG and Juventus is no mean feat. Finishing top of the table is even more impressive.

That continued in the round of 16 showing against Club Brugge. A routine 2-0 win in Belgium at the end of the first leg was subsequently followed by a 5-1 home mauling in the second. The 7-1 aggregate win has certainly made the soccer fraternity sit up and take notice. Admittedly, the opposition represented the weakest of those round of 16 teams. But, you can only beat what’s in front of you.

They certainly did that and they did it rather comfortably. Gaining safe passage to this season’s last eight, many will consider Benfica as the true dark horse left in the competition.

Not only that, but the draw has certainly proven rather favorable to Roger Schmidt’s men. A pairing with Inter in the quarterfinals is winnable, and a potential meeting with either Napoli or AC Milan in the semis would make for interesting viewing as well.

With the tournament bracket putting all the giants on one side of the draw and the relative minnows on the other, we will see one surprise name in the final. The question is whether or not it will be Benfica.

Inter Team Preview

After edging past Portuguese opposition in the round of 16, Inter now has to do it all over again at the quarterfinal stage. Porto may have been disposed, but now the progression curve has got slightly steeper.

Because now Benfica awaits Simone Inzaghi’s men. And although the task in hand has got tougher, it is hardly insurmountable at the same time. The beauty of each of the four upcoming Champions League ties is that they all seem rather evenly poised.

Like Benfica, Inter will have been absolutely delighted at how the draw for this round and the semis has panned out. The blue and black half of Milan may not get a better chance of reaching their first final since 2010 and are fully aware of their situation.

This is why manager Inzaghi and his players are unwilling to spurn such an opportunity over the next couple of weeks. And if they can clear the hurdle of Benfica, an all-Italian semi will await.

However, if this is to be the case, the San Siro outfit must improve on its recent domestic form. At the time of writing, Inter has lost four of its last six Serie A outings and a top-four finish is in the balance.

The defeat to Juventus was not the biggest recent shock, but the defeat to relegation-threatened Spezia certainly was. Add reverses to both Bologna and Fiorentina into the mix and it has been a tough few weeks for Inter. Can they find respite on their travels?

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Image via UEFA Champions League official site

Benfica vs. Inter Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Team	MP	GF	GA	GD	xG	xGA	xGD
Benfica	8	23	8	+15	16.9	8.4	+8.5
Inter	8	11	7	+4	10.7	10.4	+0.3

Matchup History

There is not necessarily a storied rivalry between Benfica and Inter. They have only met on one previous occasion. An occasion that happened all the way back in 1965 and the European Cup final (the precursor to the current Champions League tournament).

Fifty-eight years ago, Inter lifted the trophy after getting the better of Benfica at the San Siro. Can the Portuguese outfit finally exact revenge across the next couple of weeks?

Benfica vs. Inter Champions League Odds: Bets To Consider

Benfica to win ()

Avid readers will know that I have been taking advantage of Benfica’s progress in the knockout phase. They paid out handsomely for me and hopefully you in the round of 16, but the wins may have to be slightly more modest in just a few days.

Because when looking at the moneyline, it says there is little difference between Benfica and Inter when it comes to who will earn that all-important first-leg advantage. However, there is some difference between the two. And the most important thing to remember is that Benfica can be found at plus odds to win on their own soil. This is something that should never be overlooked.

When looking at the four pairings for this round of the competition, this is arguably the one that has the most balance. If these two teams played this match 100 times, it would be very close to a 50/50 split in terms of the outcome.

Then again, I am just needing Benfica to win once at the Estádio da Luz. When you consider that Inter failed to land a glove on their last set of Portuguese opponents, then I am even more confident of a home win in midweek.

Diving deeper into how Inter progressed to this stage, it was more due to Porto’s lack of discipline. They finished neither of the two matches with 11 men on the field of play. And with a lack of Italian prowess on show, I am backing Benfica to the hilt in this one.

Benfica 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 (+240)

While building on my first offering, I am also going to predict the correct score. Or at least I am going to offer up three potential correct scores and although Benfica scored five in their last Champions League outing, I do not see them being as prolific this time.

However, I do not envisage a scenario where Inter finds a goal in Lisbon. They only edged past Porto at the San Siro, after the visitors were reduced to 10 men and they also failed to score in the second leg with the same on-field numerical superiority.

Therefore, if I am backing Benfica to win, then I also see a clean sheet being added to the equation. I could have backed a home win to nil, but this does not give me enough coverage in terms of the eventual outcome.

This is where the multiple correct score market comes into play. A 1-0, 2-0 or even 3-0 home win will see odds of +240 converted into winnings. As long as Inter does not score, half the battle is won. If Benfica then scores, we could be in the money once again.

Roger Schmdit’s men proved more than a match for Club Brugge in the round of 16. Although Inter will bring a higher class of opponent, Inter’s poor domestic form does not have me racing to back them.

The Estádio da Luz has been shown to be a tough place to visit – especially in this season’s Champions League. PSG and Juventus have already struggled here at the start of the campaign and I can see Inter doing the same in midweek.