Benfica Vs. Club Brugge: 2022-23 Champions League Round Of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on March 7, 2023
Champions League odds

The UEFA Champions League round of 16 continues on Tuesday, March 7 with Benfica vs. Club Brugge. Bettors can catch the broadcast at 3 p.m. EST on various streaming platforms like fuboTV, Paramount+ and Univision. Ahead 2-0 after the first leg, Benfica have the edge heading into the finale. As part of TheLines‘ soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match.

Benfica Vs. Club Brugge Champions League Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. 

If the aggregate-goal score after two legs is tied, there will be two 15-minute periods of extra time. However, it’s possible for a Champions League match to go to extra time with a Leg 2 score that was not tied. In this case, three-way moneyline bets for Leg 2 are graded for the team that leads after 90 minutes. 

If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out on the team to move on to the next round, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

Benfica Team Preview

With Benfica possessing a comfortable gap at the top of Portugal’s Liga NOS, they can already afford to attack the Champions League with both barrels. No concerns about what happens back home, because matters will take care of themselves.

While even though they find themselves at home on Tuesday night, their clash with Club Brugge is on the European frontier. With a 2-0 first-leg lead already in their possession, Benfica will already feel that they have one foot in this season’s quarterfinals.

Now though, Roger Schmidt’s men will look to complete the task at hand. And it is fair to say that they will not simply go through the motions in Lisbon. If anything, they will want to turn the screw even further. Something that this Benfica side is more than capable of, and especially when you consider the attacking prowess of Goncalo Ramos. The forward is certainly on the radar of some of Europe’s biggest clubs. He will now look to place himself further in the spotlight.

Whether Benfica can keep Ramos at the end of the season remains to be seen. And perhaps privately they have already admitted that his departure from the club will be not that far away. However, there is still plenty of time in this campaign for him to do some damage.

To the point where should Benfica advance to the last eight as expected, they may want to be the team that nobody wants to face. Unfortunately for one European powerhouse, this team will be unavoidable. 

Club Brugge Team Preview

There is no doubt that Club Brugge has had an exceptional run in this season’s Champions League and the Belgian outfit will certainly be able to take many memories from the first half of the season.

However, you do also get the feeling that the road is about to end for Scott Parker’s men. Although the former Bournemouth and Fulham manager took the reins only recently, his presence may not be enough to halt their impending exit.

Of course, the fact that the Belgian outfit reached the round of 16 should certainly be considered an achievement in itself. Add the fact that they qualified out of a group that included both Bayer Leverkusen and Atletico Madrid and it should be celebrated even further.

Then again, those same celebrations would certainly have been dampened by the end of the first leg just a couple of weeks ago. A 1-0 defeat might offer some hope with a trip to Portugal looming. The same cannot be said for a deficit that is double the size. 

With David Neres’ late strike managing to put Benfica 2-0 up in Brugge, the hope that was there before kick-off would have dissipated for good. This Belgian outfit does not have any hope at all, but they are not far away from such a status either. 

With surprise results already recorded in this season’s group stage, Club Brugge can dig deep when they really need to. The big question is whether they can really get themselves out of such a sizable hole.

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Since the UCL draws for new matchups after the round of 16, there’s no set bracket for fans to follow just yet.

Benfica Vs. Club Brugge Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Club Brugge776+17.213.7-6.5

Matchup History

With no previous history to report before last month’s first leg, the only current skirmish between the two saw Benfica earn a 2-0 win in Belgium. More of the same at home and they will be firmly in this season’s Champions League quarterfinals. 

Benfica Vs. Club Brugge Champions League Odds: Bets To Consider

Benfica And Over 3.5: +225

After recording a 2-0 win in Brugge a fortnight or so ago, Benfica will already believe that they have more than one foot in this season’s Champions League quarterfinals and will be more than confident of completing the task on Tuesday.

With a first-leg win in the back pocket, Roger Schmidt’s side now gains home advantage. And with the Estádio da Luz being nothing less than a fortress for the Portuguese giants, I can see them reigning supreme once more.

After two goals in the opening encounter, I am backing at least four in total as the Belgian outfit is put to the sword. A 3-1 win would work here, and a 4-0 home victory would work just as well.

Even with Enzo Fernandez now playing in Chelsea’s blue colors, the Liga NOS leaders have not missed a beat in Europe.

Something that Club Brugge has learned the hard way. After failing to use home advantage, their impressive run in European club soccer’s most valuable competition looks like it will soon end. 

Whether they can get a consolation goal, I am not too sure. But at the same time, I have factored this into the equation. Do not be surprised if Benfica does all the heavy lifting in front of goal.

Goal Bands — Benfica 3: +165

To build on my first tip in a bit more detail, I am backing Benfica to move quickly out of the blocks. And if the game needs a total goal count of at least four, I believe the hosts will score two or more before half-time.

However, this bet is not as simple as backing over 2.5 Benfica goals. Instead, this market is a little more complex and offers three separate goal outcomes to potentially back.

Here, we are dealing with what is known as goal bands. The bands range from zero to three or more. You can either back no or one Benfica goal at full-time, you can back just two or you can back at least a trio.

In this instance, I believe the hosts will be good for at least three goals in the regulation 90 minutes and perhaps more importantly, we may need at least three home goals for the first tip to come good.

If the score ends up being 3-0 after 45 minutes, this bet would be a winner. Not only that, but it would still allow Club Brugge to chime in with a consolation goal and help our opening cause even further. 

Without that, Benfica would only need one more effort on the scoresheet, and in fairness to the Portuguese outfit, you would not put it past them either. Let us all hope that Goncalo Ramos and his teammates bring their shooting boots.

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