Baylor vs Villanova March Madness Odds — Sweet 16 2021

Written By Staff on March 22, 2021 - Last Updated on March 25, 2021

A Sweet 16 battle features the No. 1 seed Baylor Bears (22-2) and the No. 5 seed Villanova Wildcats (16-6) playing with a spot in the South Region bracket final up for grabs on Saturday at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Baylor is a  favorite in the NCAA Tournament matchup, which starts Saturday, March 27 at 5:15 PM ET.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 22, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting Odds

Baylor vs. Villanova Game Matchup

It’s admirable Jay Wright and Villanova have reached another Sweet 16 without injured star guard Collin Gillespie. Beating Baylor now might be asking too much. The Wildcats have only had to face 12-seed Winthrop and 13-seed North Texas to get here.

Teams that rank as poorly as Villanova on defense typically do not go far in March. The Wildcats rank 141st in overall defensive efficiency and 71st in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Cats may be a top-10 offense in adjusted efficiency, but you know some other teams that fit this mold? Iowa, Ohio State, and West Virginia. All highly seeded. All top-12 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. But all outside the top 140 in overall defensive efficiency. And all bounced from the tournament before the second weekend.

Villanova had a soft draw, but the bell tolls for thee, Cats. Baylor is a brutal matchup. The Bears are first in the nation in three-point shooting percentage, third in adjusted offensive efficiency and sixth in offensive rebounding percentage. Nova? 221st in effective field-goal percentage defense and 237th in three-point percentage defense.

Baylor does struggle with preventing offensive rebounds (244th), but Villanova struggles getting them (219th). A Wildcats upset would be pretty stunning.

Baylor Betting Information

  • The Bears have covered the spread more often than not this season, earning a record ATS of 15-9-1.
  • The Bears have a winning record against the spread when favored by 6.5 points or more, going 10-8-1 this season.
  • In 60% of their games this season (15/25), the Bears and their opponents have outscored the set over/under.
  • The Bears defeated Wisconsin 76-63 and covered the spread as 6.5-point favorites, while hitting the over on the 136.5 point total in their last outing on Sunday. Matthew Mayer totaled a team-high 17 points in the victory.

Against the Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Baylor Players to Watch

Jared Butler 26 16.9 3.3 4.8 2.1 0.4 2.5
MaCio Teague 26 16.0 4.1 1.6 0.8 0.2 2.1
Davion Mitchell 26 14.2 2.7 5.4 2.0 0.3 2.3
Adam Flagler 24 8.7 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.0 1.6
Matthew Mayer 26 8.3 3.8 1.0 1.2 0.3 1.0
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Villanova Betting Information

  • Villanova has consistently covered the spread this season with a record ATS of 13-8.
  • As at least a 6.5-point underdog, the Wildcats frequently cover the spread with a 7-6 record against the spread.
  • 47.6% of Villanova’s 21 games this season have topped the over/under.
  • The Wildcats defeated North Texas 84-61 in their last outing on Sunday. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl scored a team-high 18 points to lead the team to the victory. They were favored by 6 points and covered the spread, and the teams combined to hit the over on the 126 point total.

Against the Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Villanova Players to Watch

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 24 16.0 8.3 2.2 1.0 0.6 1.0
Collin Gillespie 20 14.0 3.3 4.6 1.0 0.0 2.1
Justin Moore 24 12.8 4.1 3.0 0.7 0.4 1.6
Jermaine Samuels 24 11.9 6.5 2.5 0.6 0.3 1.1
Caleb Daniels 24 9.9 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 1.8

Total Facts

  • Baylor’s games this year have resulted in a higher total score than Saturday’s matchup total (140 points) in 69.2% of opportunities (18 out of 26 matchups).
  • In 58.3% of Villanova’s games this season (14 of 24), the total points scored was more than Saturday’s 140-point over/under.
  • Together, the two teams combine for 159.6 points per game, 19.6 points more than the total of 140 for this matchup.
  • These two teams give up a combined 132.5 points per game, 7.5 points less than this contest’s over/under.
  • On average, the Bears have seen a 149.7 over/under in their games this season, 9.7 more points than the over/under in this matchup.
  • A difference of 2.5 points separates the average total points bet in Wildcats games (142.5 points) and this matchup’s over/under (140 points).

Head to Head

Date Favorite Home Team Spread Total Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Game Type Result
11/24/2019 Villanova Neutral Court -1.5 138.5 -126 +103 Regular Season 87-78 BAYLOR

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