Baylor vs Houston Final Four Odds — NCAA Tournament 2021

Posted By Staff on April 1, 2021

The Baylor Bears (22-2) and Houston Cougars (24-3) meet in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday with a chance to play in the championship game on the line. Oddsmakers have installed Baylor as  favorites for the contest, at which begins at a time to be announced (airing on CBS).

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 30, 2021, 2:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting Odds

Baylor vs. Houston Game Matchup

Baylor’s offensive firepower has carried the Big 12’s finest all season. The Bears are first in the nation in three-point shooting percentage, third in adjusted offensive efficiency and seventh in offensive rebounding percentage.

Baylor will meet its match though on the offensive glass in the Final Four. Houston is even better at generating second-chance opportunities, ranking second in Division I. That is the one area where Baylor does not match up well statistically when Houston has the ball. The Bears are outside the top 250 in allowing offensive rebounds on a per play basis. Baylor is a small team. According to KenPom, it ranks outside the top 200 in average height.

If Houston can exploit that area again in the national semifinal, the Cougars could keep it inside the number as underdogs.

Houston’s defense also matches up pretty well, at least on paper, with Baylor. The Cougars rank top 10 in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense, defensive efficiency, two-point percentage defense and block percentage. Plus, Houston ranks 11th in three-point percentage defense.

Is it enough to slow down Baylor’s top-three offense? That will determine who plays for a national championship.

Baylor Betting Information

  • Baylor has a 17-9-1 record ATS this year.
  • The Bears have a winning record against the spread when favored by 4.5 points or more, going 14-8-1 this season.
  • 16 of 27 Baylor games this season (59.3%) resulted in a total greater than the contest’s over/under.
  • The Bears knocked off Arkansas 81-72 in their last contest on Monday. MaCio Teague racked up a team-high 22 points to lead the team to the victory. They were favored by 8 points and covered the spread, and the teams combined to hit the over on the 147.5 point total.

Against the Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Baylor Players to Watch

Jared Butler 28 16.5 3.3 4.8 2.0 0.4 2.5
MaCio Teague 28 15.9 4.1 1.6 0.8 0.4 2.0
Davion Mitchell 28 14.1 2.6 5.3 2.0 0.4 2.1
Adam Flagler 26 9.0 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.0 1.6
Matthew Mayer 28 8.2 3.8 1.0 1.3 0.3 1.0
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Houston Betting Information

  • Houston has routinely covered the spread this season with a record ATS of 20-9.
  • As at least a 4.5-point underdog, the Cougars often meet expectations with an 18-9 record against the spread.
  • The Cougars and their opponents have regularly not covered the total points bet this season, only reaching the over in 48.3% (14) of their 29 games played.
  • The Cougars beat Oregon State 67-61 in their last game on Monday. Marcus Sasser racked up a team-high 20 points to lead the team to the victory. They were favored by 8 points and didn’t cover the spread, and the teams combined to fall short of the 130 point total.

Against the Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Houston Players to Watch

Quentin Grimes 29 18.0 5.8 2.0 1.4 0.3 3.4
Marcus Sasser 28 13.5 2.6 2.3 1.4 0.0 2.6
Dejon Jarreau 30 10.8 5.5 4.4 1.3 0.6 1.0
Justin Gorham 30 8.5 8.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.6
Tramon Mark 31 8.0 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.6

Total Facts

  • Baylor’s games this season have gone over the point total for Saturday’s matchup (135.5 points) in 22 out of 28 opportunities (78.6% of matchups).
  • In Houston’s games this season, the competing teams combined for a higher point total than Saturday’s matchup total in 13 out of 31 matchups (41.9%).
  • Together, the two teams combine for 159.6 points per game, 24.1 points more than the total of 135.5 for this game.
  • The 123.1 points per game these two teams surrender to opponents on average this season are 12.4 fewer than the 135.5 over/under in this contest.
  • This season, the average total for Bears games is 148.5 points, 13.0 more than the over/under of 135.5 points for this contest.
  • A difference of 1.3 points separates this matchup’s over/under (135.5 points) and the average total points bet in Cougars games (134.2 points) this season.

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