Baylor vs Arkansas March Madness Odds — Elite 8 2021

Written By Staff on March 28, 2021 - Last Updated on March 29, 2021

An Elite 8 matchup features the No. 1 seed Baylor Bears (22-2) playing as favorites against the No. 3 seed Arkansas Razorbacks (22-6) on Monday at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 28, 2021, 12:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting Odds

Baylor vs. Arkansas Game Matchup

Baylor’s offensive firepower has carried them all season. The Bears are second in the nation in three-point shooting percentage, third in adjusted offensive efficiency and sixth in offensive rebounding percentage. Arkansas presents a strong defensive challenge, ranking 23rd in overall defensive efficiency and 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, the Razorbacks rank outside the top 100 in offensive rebounding percentage allowed (per KenPom) and three-point-percentage defense.

In a one-game elimination format, keep an eye on Baylor’s three-point shooting in particular. The Big XII regular season champion’s long-range prowess is probably the biggest reason why they are a heavy on the moneyline. Despite the fact that Baylor has been prolific from beyond the arc, that has not been the case in the NCAA Tournament. The Bears are shooting just 32 percent in the dance from three, down significantly from 41 percent on the season.

When Arkansas has the ball, the Razorbacks have an opportunity to keep it close against Baylor by rebounding their misses at a high rate. Arkansas ranks top 50 in offensive rebounding percentage. Baylor is only 264th in offensive rebounding percentage. Arkansas must also protect the ball to have a chance. Baylor has thrived off of forcing turnovers, ranking top five in the nation in opponent turnover percentage. Arkansas has held its own protecting the ball, ranking top 80 in turnovers per game, but this area will be especially emphasized in the Elite 8.

Baylor Betting Information

  • The Bears have put together a 16-9-1 record against the spread this season.
  • The Bears have a winning record against the spread when favored by 7 points or more, going 10-8-1 this season.
  • In 57.7% of their games this season (15/26), the Bears and their opponents have outscored the set over/under.
  • In their last game, the Bears got a team-high 16 points from Adam Flagler on the way to a 62-51 win over Villanova on Saturday. They were favored by 8.5 points and covered the spread, and the teams combined to score 113 points to go under the 142 point total.

Against the Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Baylor Players to Watch

Jared Butler 27 16.6 3.3 4.7 2.1 0.4 2.5
MaCio Teague 27 15.6 4.1 1.6 0.9 0.3 2.0
Davion Mitchell 27 14.2 2.6 5.3 2.0 0.4 2.2
Adam Flagler 25 9.0 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.0 1.6
Matthew Mayer 27 8.2 3.8 1.0 1.2 0.3 1.0
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Arkansas Betting Information

  • With a 20-10 record ATS this season, Arkansas has outperformed expectations.
  • For the 14th time this season, the Razorbacks are at least a 7-point underdog, where they have a record of 9-4 against the spread.
  • The Razorbacks have hit the over in 15 games this season, 50% of the 30 games they have played this season.
  • In their last game, the Razorbacks got a team-high 22 points from Jalen Tate on the way to a 72-70 victory over Oral Roberts on Saturday. They were favored by 11 points and failed to covered the spread, and the teams combined to score 142 points to fall short of the 157 point total.

Against the Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Arkansas Players to Watch

Moses Moody 31 17.0 5.8 1.6 1.0 0.6 1.9
Justin Smith 27 13.8 7.3 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.2
JD Notae 31 12.8 3.2 1.9 1.5 0.3 1.7
Jalen Tate 31 10.9 3.8 3.9 1.1 0.4 0.8
Davonte Davis 29 8.3 4.4 2.1 1.2 0.1 0.1

Total Facts

  • In Baylor’s matchups this season, the Bears and their opponents have eclipsed Monday’s over/under of 149 points 13 times (48.1% of opportunities).
  • In 19 out of Arkansas’ 31 games this year (61.3%), the competing teams scored more points than the point total in Monday’s matchup.
  • The point total for the game of 149 is 15.7 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Bears (83 points per game) and the Razorbacks (81.7 points per game).
  • This game’s total is 13.3 more points than the 135.7 these two teams combine to allow per game in 2020-21.
  • On average, the over/under in Bears games is 0.7 points fewer than the over/under of 149 points in this matchup.
  • A difference of 3.1 points separates the average total points bet in Razorbacks games (152.1 points) and this matchup’s over/under (149 points).

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