Bayern Munich Vs. PSG: 2022-23 Champions League Round Of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on March 8, 2023
Champions league odds

The UEFA Champions League round of 16 continues on Wednesday, March 8 with Bayern Munich vs. Paris St-Germain. Bettors can catch the broadcast at 3 p.m. EST on various streaming platforms like fuboTV, Paramount+ and Univision. Bayern has the edge after winning 1-0 on the road in the first leg. As part of TheLines‘ soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match.

Bayern Munich Vs. PSG Champions League Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. 

If the aggregate-goal score after two legs is tied, there will be two 15-minute periods of extra time. However, it’s possible for a Champions League match to go to extra time with a Leg 2 score that was not tied. In this case, three-way moneyline bets for Leg 2 are graded for the team that leads after 90 minutes. 

If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out on the team to move on to the next round, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

Bayern Munich Team Preview

After an early-season wobble, Bayern Munich has gotten busy reminding everyone who is boss back home. Now, they will look to assert their dominance in continental matters as well.

With a 1-0 lead to protect from their recent trip to Paris, Julian Nagelsmann’s men will be in no mood to simply set out a defensive stall. When Bayern has the opportunity to punish teams, a blitzkrieg attack seems to be their preferred way.

They certainly deployed this tactic during the first leg of this Champions League encounter. Luckily for the team from the French capital, the damage imposed wound up fairly limited.  Wasted chances may come back to haunt Bayern on Wednesday night.

Then again, you can expect them to create a further quantity when they welcome PSG to the Allianz Arena. With the pre-World Cup stutters now a thing of the past, this German juggernaut is now revving through the gears at quite a pace. With the likes of Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane in attack, they have two players who can cause problems at rapid speed.

Of course, you could also say the same about the other 10 outfield players in the starting lineup. And with the attack serving as the best form of defense, expect Joao Cancelo to receive license to roam forward at will.

PSG Team Preview

It would be unfair to say that PSG is blowing hot and cold this season. It is more a case of different levels of warmth. When firing on all cylinders, they are still a team to be feared. However, a cylinder or two has gone missing in recent weeks.

In fairness, this team still looks almost guaranteed to win the current edition of Ligue 1. Then again, that may owe more to none of the hopeful contenders finding the consistency to truly challenge the Paris all-stars.

While another league title is in the bag in just a few months’ time, it is the Champions League that the club’s Qatari owners are desperate to land. And PSG’s status in this tie borders on desperate.

Yes, they only have a one-goal deficit to claw back. But, they must enter the lion’s den otherwise known as the Allianz Arena and thwart a team that usually gives nothing up on their home ground.

The plus point will be the fact that there is no cloud of mystery surrounding the fitness of Kylian Mbappe this time. If manager Christophe Galtier tried to play mind games before the first leg, his ploy backfired.

Now he will look to play his strongest hand in Munich. That will include the triumvirate of Mbappe, Lionel Messi and Neymar. That trio has the ability to cause any opposition defense damage, and this sets up Wednesday’s clash rather nicely.

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Since the UCL draws for new matchups after the round of 16, there’s no set bracket for fans to follow just yet.

Bayern Munich Vs. PSG Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Bayern Munich6192+1714.46.8+7.6

Matchup History

Before PSG and Bayern Munich took to the field last month, they had 11 previous Champions League encounters. The former held the edge with six wins to the latter’s five.

Now though, the record stands at six wins each. With Wednesday offering up fixture No. 13, it could prove unlucky for one of these true European powerhouses.

Bayern Munich Vs. PSG Champions League Odds: Bets To Consider

Bayern Munich Win And Over 2.5 Goals: +145

With the first-leg being a fixture that just about bordered on the anti-climactic, the second leg provide a more entertaining affair. Especially as PSG must ensure they have a lead after 90 minutes.

A 1-0 win for Christophe Galtier’s men at the Allianz Arena and all things will be equal, resulting in 30 minutes of additional time. Any win by a two-goal margin and the French outfit will advance.

However, I do not see this happening for PSG. After already getting their noses in front in Paris on Valentine’s Day, I believe Bayern will reinforce their dominance in Munich. To the point where I am not only backing them to win, but for the teams to net three or more total goals. Therefore, a 2-1 win for the hosts would be the ideal result to get us into the winner’s circle.

As the first leg showed, two ultra-attacking teams can have a habit of sometimes canceling each other out. This time, PSG will have Mbappe ready from the start. This will only add to the attacking output on the field.

With that being said, I still cannot envisage a scenario where the visitors come out on top in 90 minutes. They may well score themselves. They could even score twice or more. But, I still see Bayern winning both legs of this heavyweight clash.

Bayern Munich Winning Score 3-2, 4-2, 4-3 or 5-1: +800

If my first pick leaned towards somewhat conservative, I can’t say the same for my second. Because this time I am going for a Bayern win and plenty of goals to alongside it.

At the same time, I do expect PSG to potentially play their part. Thus, I have opted for a multi-score bet, and one where at least five total goals will be shared between these two European powerhouses. Having four separate scores bundled into one single bet allows Bayern to breach PSG’s net on multiple occasions. If they get three or four goals of their own but forget to shut the back door, then this is exactly the scenario that comes to fruition.

Even though their opening skirmish proved rather quiet, we all know these two teams can put opposing teams to the sword.

This is why I moved away from the low-scoring multi-score bets offered in the past. This time, I am strapping myself in for some Champions League chaos at the Allianz Arena.

While a 5-1 home win may seem unlikely, you can never rule it out when you consider Bayern’s lightning-fast attack. Should that come to pass, PSG manager Christophe Galtier will surely be looking for a new job at the end of the season.

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