MLB Playoffs Betting Guide: NLDS & ALDS Odds, Picks, Baseball Parlays
Saturday signals the start of each NLDS and ALDS as the playoffs progress into the best-of-five series. The remaining eight teams will vie for the four spots in the ALCS and NLCS before the finalists meet in the World Series. Each of TheLines.com’s lead baseball writers has examined MLB odds and picked out their favorite bets for Saturday. Utilize these MLB picks, or combine them for baseball parlays using sportsbook promos like odds boosts.
This option for baseball parlays is equivalent to +494 odds (bet $10 to win $49.40) if you combine Eli Hershkovich and Mo Nuwwarah’s picks.
MLB Playoff Odds: NLDS & ALDS Series Prices
Discover the best prices below for each of the division series. If you can’t access legal betting apps in your area, check out the best baseball DFS sites. Click on the odds to bet on which teams will win their series.
Teams
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Tigers Over Guardians
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Guardians Over Tigers
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Mets Over Phillies
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Phillies Over Mets
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Royals Over Yankees
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Yankees Over Royals
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Padres Over Dodgers
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Dodgers Over Padres
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Mo’s Baseball Picks For Potential Parlays: Royals +170 (Game 1)
I don’t have Michael Wacha and Gerrit Cole rated all that far apart.
That’s a wild thing to say, but Cole has lost a tick off his fastball, and his ERA estimators were worse this year than last. He’s been below the league average on whiff rate each of the past two years, so this is probably just who he is now: a good pitcher and no longer a great one.
Wacha, meanwhile, is on his third straight season of well above-average play despite just decent peripherals. We can safely say he has a true talent for beating those numbers. Even after building in some regression, I have less than half a run of ERA between these two.
Kansas City’s bats have gotten some reinforcements as well. Vinnie Pasquantino is back, and this offense was lost without him. He’ll provide a significant boost, especially against the right-handed Cole.
The Yankees have a significant edge with their lineup. That will be true in each game of this series, but I like that Wacha will have plentiful lefties backing up in the pen. That’s significant against a weaker lineup against southpaws (107 wRC+ vs. 120 on the other side).
Wacha has also controlled the long ball, a key attribute in pitching against a potent offense at Yankee Stadium. In particular, he’s on his second straight season of above-average home-run suppression. Wacha’s Statcast rankings in hard-hit rate (92nd percentile) and average exit velocity (89th percentile) are elite.
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Eli’s Baseball Picks For Potential Parlays: Padres +120 (Game 1)
Although I won’t have a series wager on the Padres in my sportsbook account because I’m already invested in their World Series futures, I’ve bet on them to win Game 1.
Led by Shohei Ohtani’s recording-breaking 50-50 season, the Dodgers find themselves atop MLB in wRC+. However, Padres starter Dylan Cease (3.47 ERA, 3.10 FIP) has the arsenal to slow them down.
Los Angeles has scuffled most against sliders, which Cease employs nearly as often as his four-seam fastball. But in his second regular-season outing against the Dodgers, he overcooked his slider to a season-high 54.6% usage rate. That could have correlated with his inefficient outing, allowing three earned runs in five innings.
Backed by an elite bullpen, Cease should rebound if he refines his pitch mix. Conversely, the durability of the opposing starter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is unknown.
Yamamoto failed to reach 80 pitches in any of his four starts after returning from a shoulder injury in mid-September. To boot, one of his premier pitches is the splitter. Manny Machado and Co. boast the second-highest wOBA against this pitch type.
Bettors should not read too much into Yamamoto’s first major-league outing in South Korea, where San Diego ambushed him for five earned runs in the first inning. It’s only a one-game sample size. Nevertheless, Yamamoto’s floor is lower than Cease’s, given their experience and injury history.
Update: Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman is a game-time decision with an ankle injury.