Baltimore Orioles Odds: MLB Win Totals, Projections, Over/Under Bets
Welcome to TheLines' 2024 MLB odds preview series. Here, we'll preview every team's 2024 season with a focus on MLB win totals and World Series odds. For each team, we'll evaluate their roster and see if there are any wagers worth considering. Today, we'll look at Baltimore Orioles odds.
The Orioles finished 101-61 in a banner season. They won the division and earned the No. 1 seed in the American League. Unfortunately, the playoff excitement was quickly snuffed in a 3-0 sweep at the hands of the eventual champion Texas Rangers.
Can the Orioles break through in 2024 as their young players take a step forward and with the team adding a legitimate ace in Corbin Burnes?
Orioles Odds: An Overview And What The Projections Say
First, let's compare the market on Orioles odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2023 wins: 101
- Market wins: /
- FG wins: 84.5
- BP wins: 86.3
The market is higher on the Orioles than the computers. Last year, the Orioles significantly outperformed their expected runs. With neutral sequencing, they "should have" won 89 games, so they were among the most fortunate teams in MLB. The bullpen did an incredible job holding late leads.
So, significant regression is expected, but that's somewhat mitigated by what should be a higher talent level.
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Evaluating The Orioles' Roster
Bats And Defense
Baltimore had an above-average offense in 2023, and it should be even better in 2024. Their best players -- Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman -- are on the right side of the aging curve and should be down-ballot MVP odds candidates.
Even better, Jackson Holliday is expected to join the crew. He's close to the consensus top prospect in baseball. The young shortstop -- Matt's son -- could provide a plus bat and average defense. FanGraphs' projections have him as an above-average player right now, before even turning 21. He'll be among the favorites for AL Rookie of the Year odds.
While the infield looks tremendous, the outfield is more middling. Cedric Mullins has swiftly descended from his peak as an MVP candidate in 2021. Austin Hays has a good bat but mediocre glove, rendering him about average. Anthony Santander should be solid.
The team's defense looks about average. Rutschman and Henderson lead the way here, but the overall metrics were about average. Statcast didn't like the Orioles' glovework, and relegating Jorge Mateo to a bench role in favor of Holiday may hurt. However, Mateo's putrid bat (67 wRC+) belongs there.
Pitching
As mentioned, last year's Orioles got a ton of mileage from their bullpen. Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano were arguably the best 1-2 punch in the game at the back end. They shouldered big workloads, combining for more than 130 innings, and their combined ERAs barely cracked 3.5.
The Os will be hard-pressed to get anything in the ballpark of that production this year. Cano came completely out of nowhere at age 29. The projections aren't sold he can repeat that, expecting an ERA around 3.7 despite Statcast suggesting his production was legitimate (3.25 xERA).
Bautista won't pitch after October Tommy John, and the team has replaced him with the mercurial Craig Kimbrel. Expect another roller-coaster season there, and the depth isn't great.
The rotation, however, has been fortified considerably by the addition of Burnes. Despite some struggles last season, he projects as one of the top arms in the game. Backed by the promising Grayson Rodriguez and solid back-end arms Tyler Wells and Dean Kremer, this should have been an above-average group.
Unfortunately, bad news has already begun brewing. Ostensible No. 2 Kyle Bradish and crafty lefty John Means will begin the season on the IL with elbow injuries. Means was already a major question mark after pitching just 23 2/3 innings last season with an 11.4 K% in his abbreviated return from Tommy John.
Possible Bets On Orioles Odds
I was the lowest on Earth on the Orioles last year, and my wager on their season win total under did not go well. Coming into this season, I was again lower than the consensus on the Os, but I was planning to pass on another season-long torture session of watching them outperform their peripherals again.
Well, the injuries to the rotation have pushed me to accept more pain.
The offense should be very good again and possibly even elite if Holiday becomes a star immediately. But I don't trust this bullpen at all, and the rotation looks very shaky without Means and especially Bradish. They're already scraping what should have been the bottom of their depth there, with Cole Irvin projected into the rotation. He's a replacement-level arm.
Playing in a tough division where three other teams have legitimate World Series aspirations, the Orioles could have a tough season ahead. I agree with the projections and made a wager on Under 90.5 wins (+100) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Naturally, I don't like their prices in futures markets either. The team does have significant upside, and the wild card here could be dealing more prospects for win-now help. We're totally in the dark here on how the new ownership group will operate. But there's a lot of room between the projections and the market here, and I like the projections' side.
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