The Weekend In Bad Beats: A (Near) Mississippi Whitewash And A Missed XP

Written By Thomas Casale on September 17, 2018
Bad Beats

Each week, TheLines will take a look back at some of the worst sports betting “bad beats” from the weekend of college and pro football. These incredible moments caused a swing in money at sportsbooks, resulting in jubilation — and plenty of pain — for bettors everywhere.

Alabama 62, Ole Miss 7

Total: 71

What if I told you one team will score a touchdown on the first play of the game. The other team will score 62 points. The total is 71. Would you like your chances of cashing the OVER?

The worst beat on Saturday took place in the Alabama/Ole Miss game. Over bettors couldn’t have asked for a better start. The Rebels scored on the first play just 11 seconds into the game. Then Alabama answered with seven straight touchdowns to take a 49-7 halftime lead. That’s 56 points in the first half. If you bet the OVER, the money is already spent. I mean, 17 second-half points is nothing, right?

As thrilling as the first half was for OVER bettors, the second half was just as devastating. One non-offensive touchdown and two field goals by Alabama. Not a point from Ole Miss. Not even a measly, “Let’s kick a meaningless field goal down by 50” to help OVER bettors. Nothing.

Alabama kicked a field goal with 12:16 left in the game to go up 62-7. OVER bettors needed just two more points that never came. The worst part for many bettors is the line opened at 66.5 but went up quickly. The books were a big winner with 69 percent of the bets and 75 percent of the money wagered on the OVER, according to Sports Insights.

Some beats stick with gamblers forever. They tell stories about them for years. This is one of those beats for OVER bettors.

Dolphins 20, Jets 0 (Halftime)

First Half Total: 21

The first half total in the Jets/Dolphins’ game was 21. Unfortunately for OVER bettors, that was one point too many.

Miami led 14-0 late in the second quarter. At this point, OVER bettors will take one more touchdown and a push. Anything else would be gravy. Then, with 42 seconds left in the half, they got it when Ryan Tannehill threw a touchdown pass to tight end A.J. Derby.

That was a close one. Just need the extra point now. Most Sundays, bettors don’t have to sweat every single extra point but this was no normal Sunday for NFL kickers. Jason Sanders missed the extra point, keeping the game UNDER the total. That alone is a bad beat — but there’s even more to the story.

Sam Darnold led the Jets down the field in the final 42 seconds of the first half, giving OVER bettors one last chance to cash. With 10 seconds remaining, Darnold hit receiver Chris Herndon at the 2-yard-line. Herndon fumbled, picked it up but was tackled at the one.

Hurry call time out! Wait, the Jets are out of timeouts. OVER bettors were forced to watch the final seconds click off the clock, one yard and one point away from victory.

Vikings 29, Packers 29

Line: Vikings -2.5

This game was two bad beats in one. The line didn’t get released at many sports books until Sunday because of the uncertainty surrounding Aaron Rodgers’ status. The Westgate SuperContest make the Vikings -7 earlier in the week but when it was announced Rodgers would start, Minnesota closed between a 1.5 and 2-5-point favorite.

Green Bay led this game 23-14 with 7:35 left in the fourth quarter. Minnesota cut the lead to 23-21 just 17 seconds later when Kirk Cousins hit Stefon Diggs for a 75-yard touchdown. Two Mason Crosby field goals gave Green Bay an eight-point lead with 1:45 remaining.

The fourth quarter madness continued when Cousins hit Adam Thielen for the tying touchdown in the final minute. Vikings backers needed the two-point conversation, then a field goal to cover. They got the two-point conversion. The field goal? Well…

It wasn’t a good day for kickers and this game was no different. Crosby missed a 52-yard field goal as time expired to send the game into overtime and keep Minnesota backers alive.

Vikings bettors finally got their shot at a cover in overtime. If Daniel Carlson connects on a 49-yard field goal, it would cap off a comeback that saw Minnesota score 22 points in the fourth quarter and give Vikings bettors a half-point cover.

However, as we already mentioned, this wasn’t the day to rely on a kicker.

Carlson missed his field goal attempt, securing a tie and Packers cover. The 31 fourth-quarter points also put the game OVER 45. It was a big win for sportsbooks, as 77 percent of the dollars wagered were on the Vikings and 67 percent on the UNDER, according to Sports Insights.


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Thomas Casale

Thomas Casale has been following the sports betting industry for 25 years. He's contributed to The Linemakers and is currently an editor at BetChicago. Thomas has also provided fantasy sports analysis for multiple websites and print publications, while also covering the NFL, college football, college basketball and MMA for different media outlets.

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