Formula 1 Racing: Azerbaijan Grand Prix Odds
F1 is back this week, heading east to Azerbaijan for the first of two street tracks in two weeks. With Lando Norris’ title hopes not getting the boost expected despite Max Verstappen’s P6 finish, this race could decide whether F1 sees a title fight or not. The Red Bull likely won’t go well around here, but can Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari find favor again? Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds are fascinating.
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Azerbaijan Grand Prix Odds
All other drivers not listed 11-1 or longer odds. Click on the odds to navigate to the sportsbook and see the full board.
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Driver
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Lando Norris
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Max Verstappen
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Charles LeClerc
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Baku
A street circuit in the middle of Baku, this track is very similar to Montreal. Slow corners and tight track lead the first two sectors, before a third sector that is almost entirely flat out. Baku holds the record for fastest ever top speed in Formula 1 down the long straight into Turn 1.
The Red Bull cannot turn well, as Max Verstappen keeps telling us, so it’s unlikely the car is gonna find pace this week. Max was nearly 7 tenths off of pole last week, but more concerningly a half second off of P6. The Red Bull is a disaster waiting to happen because the slow corners and the castle section are gonna be a disaster for that car.
Mercedes probably aren’t going to go well around here – George’s P3 in Qualifying last time out in Monza has validated my theory that the Mercedes traded slow corner speed for fast corners, which hurts here.
This is probably the same race as Monza ended up with, with Charles Leclerc fighting the two McLarens. The nature of Baku should make McLaren the favorites, but their lead driver and alleged title contender is also on FraudWatch, so, you know, that’s fun.
Azerbaijan Grand Prix Odds Qualifying
Charles Leclerc had 3 straight poles and a sprint pole last year. He’s had the fastest car precisely once in those four sessions. Leclerc has to be considered the favorite for pole this weekend, even if there’s reason not to buy the Monza hype. The Ferrari is going from a place where it generally goes well to one where it really shouldn’t, but Leclerc is incredible here. I’m high on him over one lap and will bet him to get the pole and a Qualifying Top 3 bet as well.
The two McLarens really ought to be up there as well. Their car is so much faster than everybody else’s that they locked out the front row at Monza, which wasn’t suited to their car in the slightest. Now, at a track that should be much more favorable, they should, at minimum, get 2nd and 3rd.
Best Of The Quali Rest
The odds are banking on the straight line pace of the Williams and the Haas to put those cars in good shape, and it makes sense. Alex Albon ended up in the points here last year. It’s a reasonable bet. But I’m not betting on the top drivers.
Because of Kevin Magnussen’s race ban, Ollie Bearman is making his Haas debut early. Bearman qualified 11th in Saudi in a Ferrari earlier this year, but that was with one practice session. Now, he’s had a handful of practice sessions in the Haas and will have 3 more before Qualifying. Bearman Q3 odds are something I’m looking for, and I’ll be looking to bet Bearman against Ocon, Ricciardo, and Tsunoda in Qualifying Head To Heads.
Franco Colapinto showed well in the race on Sunday in Monza, and the end of Q1 in Monza was a bit of a chaotic mess. Colapinto will need to have his car under control better this week, but he should make Q2 this week. At least, I’m betting on him to.
Azerbaijan Grand Prix Odds Race
I know I sound like a broken record, but if Lando Norris doesn’t win this race, he is the most fraudulent driver in modern F1 history. He has the by far fastest car on the grid, and he has 2 wins in a season he should have 6. He is 0-7 in his career at leading after Lap 1 when starting from pole position. Somehow, he even forgot to defend Oscar Piastri in Monza, allowing him to lose two places because he wrongly assumed he didn’t have to close the door on a move. As someone who didn’t watch him lose to George Russell in F2 in 2018, watching him wilt in a title fight, now I understand how George boatraced him.
His fraudulent ass might be saved by McLaren instituting team orders, a lifeline nothing in his performance dictates worthy, but at the end of the day, Lando’s failures are his to solve. He needs to learn how to do a race start without getting passed. He needs to know what pace won’t burn out his tires and force a two-stop when the one-stop is optimal. At some point, he just needs to be fine in that very British “I really expected better, but it’s fine” sense. If he can’t be that, McLaren should fire him and run open auditions for his seat until Abu Dhabi.
The rest of the podium should be Oscar and Charles. The Ferrari is comparatively faster than last year’s race and Charles managed a third place here. Oscar is inconsistent, but he has a rocket ship, and there are really no other serious contenders for the spot. (Sorry, Carlos.)
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Max Verstappen
Max is screwed, completely and utterly screwed. The Red Bull will be lucky for a third-row start. Even with the long straight, Max won’t be able to catch the McLarens or Ferraris. Maybe he can scratch out a P5, but I think the Mercedes might be faster this week! Max is a full-on bet against this week. Carlos, Lewis, and George are all head-to-head. I’m looking to pick on Max with.
Best Of The Rest
Pierre Gasly came 5th here two years ago. Gasly’s never priced where he should be, so I’m going to continue going with him.
Colapinto beating Bearman head-to-head also excites me. Colapinto’s raw race pace from Monza feels like it could be an underrated market inefficiency.
Best of luck with the Azerbaijan Grand Prix Odds!
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