Sports bettors are piling on additional bets at this time of the year during the NFL playoffs. Proposition bets (props) are offered by many sportsbooks with many player props and yardage totals to bet. They will become especially popular during the Super Bowl with nearly 50% of many sportsbooks total handle taken from prop bets alone.

But in the NFC Championship Sunday at New Orleans, many prop bettors took a hard hit when Rams running back CJ Anderson was tackled for a 3-yard loss in overtime just plays before Greg “The Leg” Zuerlein booted the longest game-winning kick in playoff history when his 57-yard field goal sailed well beyond the uprights to send the Rams to Super Bowl Llll.

How it happened

Anderson became a popular player to target as he rushed for 167, 132 and 123 yards for the Rams after being acquired by Los Angeles in mid-December. At FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey, Anderson’s rushing yards prop against the Saints was over/under 53.5 yards as of late as Saturday night. Anderson ‘under’ bets became popular at many sportsbooks and his rushing yards prop closed between 44.5-46.5 yards at many locations by kickoff on Sunday. Anderson’s workload was expected to drop further against the Saints with RB Todd Gurley back healthy after he ripped off 116 rushing yards against Dallas while sharing the rushing load with Anderson the previous week.

Against the Saints, Anderson became the Rams’ primary ball carrier when Gurley struggled and played less than 50% of the Rams’ offensive snaps. Gurley had just four carries for 10 yards and a turnover on a pass deflection he should have caught deep in Rams territory early in the game as the Saints built a 13-0 lead.

On the Rams early fourth quarter drive, Anderson carried the ball three times, for 5, 2 and 1 yards, the last yard from the Saints 2-yard line when he was stopped one yard short of the goal line. But that last yard gave Anderson 47 rushing yards for the game. Bettors who played over his rushing total at the most widely available numbers were happy and no longer sweating the result.

So it seemed. The Rams passed the ball eight straight times on their final drive in regulation when Zuerlein kicked a 48-yard field goal to send the game into overtime. Over bettors were still winning the Anderson rushing prop.

When the game went to overtime and the Rams intercepted Saints QB Drew Brees on the opening drive, Los Angeles took over near midfield. After a 12-yard pass completion on the first play, Anderson took an inside handoff and was tackled for a 3-yard loss. His rushing total dropped to 44 yards. Three plays later without another rushing attempt for Anderson, Zuerlein kicked the game-winning 57-yard field goal.

Tough break. Bad beat. Unfortunate luck, unless you had bet the under!

Anderson finished with 44 rushing yards on 16 carries with a long of 8 yards. He’ll be another popular target when the Super Bowl props are released this week.

ALSO READ: Bad Beats: Todd Gurley Doesn’t Care About Your Bet Slips Or Fantasy Teams

 

Editor’s note: Initial projections of single-digit temperatures in Kansas City on Sunday may be a little harsh. But with wind chill temps falling and rain and snow mix developing Friday evening, the fluctuating weather could make the AFC Championship Sunday evening more eventful.

It’s going to be cold in Kansas City for the AFC Championship game between the Chiefs and Patriots. Not cold like the  subzero temperatures in Minneapolis during the 2016 wild-card game that saw the Seahawks escape over the Vikings 10-9 on a missed chip-shot field goal.

But the cold and severe weather impacts games in many ways, including the sportsbooks adjusting the over/under odds for the AFC Championship game early this week with more betting activity initially supporting under the total.

Then, as we get closer to the Sunday evening kickoff, the “Arctic blast” threats that had drawn bettors to the under started to dissipate.

Updated 'Artic Blast' conditions for Patriots-Chiefs: 22 degrees, zero rain, treacherous 6 mph winds: https://t.co/2YZSxFnxIE

— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) January 17, 2019

So, now what?

The line and total adjustments

The Chiefs are a three-point favorite across the board. After the total opened as high as 57.5 at New Jersey books like DraftKings, the current total sits at 56 or 56.5.

However, FanDuel Sportsbook dropped the AFC Championship total to 54.5 on Wednesday as the fluctuating forecast shows even more severe weather over the weekend in Kansas City. That looks like the low point as other sportsbooks in New Jersey and Nevada have the total at 55.5 after opening as high as 58 at some sportsbooks.

Severe cold weather can greatly impact the play on the field and the betting total as witnessed in the 2016 Vikings Seahawks wild-card playoff game. The total opened 42.5 and closed 39.5. The temperature was minus 6 degrees, and the wind chill was minus 25 at kickoff.

In the midst of the December 2017 game at Buffalo, who could forget the cold, snow-covered field and heavy fog during the Bills 13-7 overtime win over the Colts?

Blizzard conditions and a foot of snow left the media and fans unable to see the scoreboard or lines on the field. Temperatures in Buffalo were in the low 20s — like the forecast in Kansas City on Sunday — and the total dropped from 40 to 36.5. Under the total bettors had fun watching that game.

Lions, Eagles in snow

The snow was insane in Philadelphia for the December 2013 game between the Lions and Eagles. It was not as cold with temperatures in the high 20s, but Detroit had four fumbles in the first quarter alone.

Last year’s Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles was in the midst of his sick season passing for 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions. One of his interceptions was in that weather-impacted game. Detroit led 14-6 after three quarters, but the Eagles erupted for 28 points to win 34-20 and send the game over the closing total of 51; down from the opener of 54.5.

Weather impact can be difficult to determine, but wagering usually supports less scoring, and you want to have a good idea of the weather conditions at game time and anticipate what will happen in the betting market to get favorable betting numbers.

Explosive offenses present problems for under bettors

Kansas City’s offense led the league in scoring this season at 35.1 points per game with a league-high 426 yards per game. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes will win MVP honors, and his 50 touchdown passes and mobility combined with multiple motions and offensive sets make the Chiefs the most difficult team to defend.

The Patriots average 27.2 points per game and 393 yards per game and have the NFL’s greatest postseason quarterback leading the charge in Tom Brady.

Neither team has an above average defense. Thus, betting the under is more difficult, especially with the Patriots’ 43-40 last-second win over the Chiefs on Oct. 14 looming in bettors’ minds. The Patriots had 500 yards offense that game and the Chiefs had 446 yards on limited possessions and plays.

So the weather will be a determining factor in the play-calling, execution and scoring in the AFC Championship. The biggest bets will come during the weekend, and a majority of the bets will be made Sunday as kickoff approaches at 6:40 EST.

The Chiefs scored 31 points and the Patriots 41 points in last week’s playoff win to set up the showdown for AFC Super Bowl representative. The dilemma for sports bettors continues until kickoff, and in-game wagering will be worth watching and betting on as the possessions and weather changes.

The NFL’s wild-card weekend should produce some intriguing games and results, as three of the contests have home teams with less than three-point favorites.

Take this advice; there is no sure side despite market moves and sharp action. The betting activity on the NFL playoffs is increasing as the games near kick off, and the injury reports are nearing finalization.

Wagering activity and betting support on teams vary across the country at various sportsbooks. Which teams can be counted on to win, cover and advance to the divisional round of next week’s playoffs?

Recent wild-card round history

Last year’s wild-card round results were a dog lover’s delight.

Underdogs went 4-0 ATS with two outright winners as the Atlanta Falcons flew past the Los Angeles Rams 26-13, and the Tennessee Titans shocked the Kansas City Chiefs 22-21.

Recall that all four home favorites were laying at least six points.

The prior playoff season, the wild-card-round favorites went 4-0 SU/ATS with each winning by double-digits. Three of them were laying at least six points.

So where is the edge with this year’s wild-card games with all four games lined at 6.5 points or less and three of the home favorites laying three points or less?

NFL playoff betting activity and market moves

	DraftKings	BetStars	FanDuel	888sport	SugarHouse
Indianapolis Houston	48.5 -1	48 -1	48 -1	48.5 -1	48.5 -1
Seattle Dallas	43 -2	43 -2	42.5 -2.5	43 -2	43 -2
LA Chargers Baltimore	42 -2.5	41.5 -3	42 -3	42 -2.5	42 -2.5
Philadelphia Chicago	41 -6.5	41.5 -6.5	41.5 -6.5	41 -6.5	41 -6.5

The two games on Saturday are expected to be close and also feature rematches from earlier season meetups.

Indianapolis at Houston (-1)

Houston Texans host this game as the AFC South champs.

These two teams met twice during the regular season with each team winning on the road by three points.

The betting activity on the side is nearly even on each team at a consensus of seven of the biggest online sportsbooks as tracked by Sports Insights.

The line has dropped slightly from the opener. FanDuel Sportsbook had Houston as a one-point favorite with added vigorish (-115) as of Friday afternoon.

The Colts started the season 1-5 but finished winning nine of their last 10 games. Indianapolis was only an underdog one time during that stretch, and they won outright at Houston  24-21.

The Texans started 0-3 this season and then went on a nine-game winning streak that began with a 37-34 overtime victory at Indianapolis.

According to John Murray, director of the SuperBook at the Westgate in Las Vegas, said there is “good two-way action and we did take a $30,000 bet on the Texans. There’s been a lot of moneyline action on Houston.”

Seattle at Dallas (-2)

Both teams finished 10-6. Dallas Cowboys hosts the game as NFC East champs.

FanDuel was the only sportsbook showing Dallas -3 (+100 vig) as of Friday. Similar to the AFC‘s wild-card game, Sports Insights betting activity tracker shows a 51-49 percent split on the side for each team.

“Another game with very good two-way handle,” Murray said. “We did take a bet for $20,000 on the Cowboys -2. It will be a very high-handle game between two high-profile teams in primetime.”

When the Cowboys and Seahawks met in Seattle in Week 3, the Seahawks prevailed 24-13. The yards were nearly even and both teams near 300 total yards offense. The Seahawks were just a one-point home favorite, and three Dallas turnovers were the difference in defeat.

Sunday’s wild-card games will likely draw even more wagering activity — especially the late primetime game.

The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles snagged a wild card by winning five of their last six games and now travel to the Windy City against the upstart Chicago Bears and their dominant defense.

LA Chargers at Baltimore (-2.5)

The Baltimore Ravens (10-6) host this wild-card game Sunday as AFC North champs after holding on last week against Cleveland.

Baltimore finished the season on a 6-1 run after rookie QB Lamar Jackson was inserted as the starting quarterback and the Ravens went to a run-heavy approach on offense to compliment their No. 1 defense.

The Chargers (12-4) couldn’t get by the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West but are tied for the second-best record in the NFL this season.

This game is -2.5 across the board at Las Vegas sportsbooks, but -3 (+100) at FanDuel on Friday. Major online sportsbooks are split between 2.5-3, favoriting the Ravens. However, a playoff-high 72 percent of the bets are on the LA Chargers, according to Sports Insights.

“So far, most of the larger bets have come in on the Ravens and pushed the number to Ravens -2.5 (-120),” Murray said.

Philadelphia at Chicago (-6.5)

The Chicago Bears (12-4) host the Eagles (9-7) as NFC North champs.

The Bears, like the Houston Texans, went from worst to first after finishing last in the division a season ago. As the sun sets near halftime of this primetime game, it will be near freezing temperatures in the mid-30s with winds 10-20 MPH.

Quarterback Nick Foles will try to lead the Eagles on another magical playoff run. Foles was a full participant at practice Thursday after suffering injured ribs during the Week 17 win at Washington.

Foles and the Eagles offense will have to play their best to pull out a victory, as the Bears were dominant with their defense at Soldier Field this season going 7-1 SU/ATS including 6-0 SU/ATS as favorite.

Chicago also closed the season on a 9-1 SU/ATS run.

The Bears are a six-point favorite across most of Las Vegas, but the major online sportsbooks in New Jersey have the Bears at -6.5. According to Sports Insights’ bet tracker,

Chicago is taking 53 percent of the bets while the Eagles are getting 62 percent of the moneyline bets.

“We took a $20,000 bet on the Eagles +6 and moved to 5.5, but we are back up to Bears -6, as the majority of the bets have come in on the Bears,” Murray said.

“Historically speaking, the fourth and final game of each playoff weekend is a high-handle game with big liability to the book, as all the moneyline parlays and teasers that are alive will be going to that game.”

Take teaser bets into consideration as the lines are set and moved at playoff time.

With tight lines and close contests expected, professional bettors are taking a stance with some underdogs this week, crossing over the key numbers of 3, 4, 6 and 7 to get +7.5 or more on six-point teasers supporting three underdogs on the Colts, Seahawks and Chargers.

The FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey and the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas release NFL advance look-ahead lines, and Week 17 is usually filled with much uncertainty. That’s the case 11 days in advance of the games with the difference in point spreads by the two sportsbooks providing look-ahead lines.

There are no Thursday or Saturday games and no Sunday night game in Week 17. Every game in Week 17 a division game. The motivational and situational angles will change based on Week 16 results and playoff potential of teams. Same with other teams that will have nothing to play for and some coaches preparing their teams for a final regular season game knowing they too will be given a pink slip the following week.

Many sportsbooks will hold off releasing betting odds on selected Week 17 games until more information is available. Review the NFL Week 17 look-ahead lines below but understand there will be more to consider as the Week 16 results come in along with other information throughout next week.

Adjusting to market moves

Last week, two road favorites went down in defeat as New England lost at Pittsburgh 17-10 and Seattle fell in overtime at San Francisco 26-23. The Patriots were an underdog on the advance look-ahead line, and then became the short favorite leading into Week 15 action. Sharp money came in on San Francisco, and also on the Tennessee Titans, who went from a 2.5-point underdog to a 2.5-point favorite on game day and in their road win against the New York Giants.

Over the last three weeks, road favorites are just 9-11 SU and 7-12-1 ATS. Teams that took the highest percentage of bets in Week 15 and lost ATS were road favorites New Orleans, New England and Seattle with the Patriots and Seahawks losing outright. The other big bet team was the Texans, who closed a 7-point road favorite on Saturday and were losing 22-19 with less than 3 minutes remaining before a miraculous ATS push or even a win for early Houston bettors in a 29-22 win against the NY Jets.

There are plenty of market moves and adjustments for Week 16, and the market will move and adjust faster in Week 17 with more information and situations to consider.

NFL Week 17 look-ahead betting lines

All 16 games are division contests in Week 17. Key games likely still impacting playoff positions includes Chicago at Minnesota with a line that reflects the Bears will likely be resting starters and a slim chance to improve their No. 3 NFC playoff seeding. Minnesota will likely need a win to make the playoffs. Philadelphia at Washington could be a key game for the final NFC wild card pending Week 16 results. Same with Indianapolis at Tennessee in the AFC.

Much to look forward to as the final two weeks play out. Stay tuned.

Game	Westgate Line	FanDuel Line
Dallas at NY Giants	NYG -2.5	NYG -1
Oakland at Kansas City	KC -13	KC -14.5
Carolina at New Orleans	NO -5.5	NO -9.5
NY Jets at New England	NE -13	NE -12.5
Philadelphia at Washington	PHI -5.5	PHI -5.5
Detroit at Green Bay	OFF	GB -4
Jacksonville at Houston	HOU -7.5	HOU -7.5
Cleveland at Baltimore	BAL -4.5	BAL -6
Atlanta at Tampa Bay	ATL -3	TB -1
Miami at Buffalo	BUF -3	BUF -1
Indianapolis at Tennessee	IND -2.5	TEN -1
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh	PIT -13	PIT -10.5
Chicago at Minnesota	MIN -6.5	MIN -1.5
LA Chargers at Denver	LAC -5.5	LAC -4.5
Arizona at Seattle	SEA -10.5	SEA -10
San Francisco at LA Rams	LAR -9	LAR -9.5