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FairwayJay

FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

NFL Week 12 Look-Ahead Lines And Betting Market Moves For Week 11

FairwayJay November 15, 2018
Week 12 look ahead lines

The FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey and the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas in release NFL advance look-ahead lines, and Week 12 brings the much anticipated Thanksgiving slate of games. Three games will kick off the turkey day treat, with the two annual games in Detroit and Dallas, plus the added game in New Orleans. All three contests are division games with the Bears tackling the Lions, Redskins’ rivalry rematch against the Cowboys, followed by the late game Falcons and Saints.

Minnesota will play a second straight Sunday night prime time division game in Week 12 as the Vikings and Packers settle the score from a Week 2 tie in Green Bay. The NFL has backloaded the second half of the regular season schedule with more meaningful division games, and the Monday night game is another key contest that could be for first place pending Week 11 results as the Houston Texans host the Tennessee Titans. Houston looks to even the score after the Titans won the Week 2 matchup 20-17.

Adjusting to market moves

Following the public’s big results in Week 9 when the top six favorites won and covered to bury the sportsbooks in the worst week of the year for the house, many of those bettors gave back some money in Week 10. The sportsbooks reacted to the Week 9 results and recent run by favorites by ‘teasing’ bettors with some road favorites of less than a touchdown against the bottom teams.

The lines were even bet up on those favorites by game day, but the Titans (+7) pounded the Patriots at home 34-10 and the Browns (+6) did the same to the Falcons as a home underdog beating Atlanta 28-16. When the Bills (+7) upset the Jets in New York with a one-sided rout 41-10 and the Redskins (+3) beat the Bucs in Tampa 16-3, the early afternoon damage was done. Many bettors did cash in big on the Saints (-6), who buried the Bengals 51-10 in Cincinnati. The Packers (-12) were also bet up hard from -10 and Green Bay sunk the Dolphins 31-12.

But the sportsbooks beat most bettors again on the two primetime games to finish Week 10 when the Cowboys (+8) upset the Eagles in Philadelphia with a flood of money pouring in on the Eagles, and then on Monday night the NY Giants (+3) scored a late touchdown to beat the 49ers in San Francisco 27-23.

With many bettors and the public following the market moves and adjustments from the Week 10 look-ahead lines to the current lines, it turned out to be a losing week for most bettors.

Despite some of the lessons learned from the contrary nature and often surprising results in the NFL, many bettors will continue to bet on the winning teams and against the losing teams the rest of the season.

If it were only that easy.

Week 11 look-ahead lines and major moves

With many bettors reacting to recent results and unwilling to bet on bad teams, these teams will take the fewest bets and least betting action in Week 11: Lions (+4), Bengals (+3.5), Redskins (+3), Broncos (+7) and Jaguars (+5).

For the Week 11 games on Sunday, Nov. 18, these are the games where there was at least a 2-point difference from the look-ahead line in Las Vegas or New Jersey and current line:

  • Carolina at Detroit (-1.5, FanDuel) – Current line Panthers -3.5 (-115)
  • Houston at Washington (PK, SuperBook) – Current line Texans -3
  • Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (-3, SuperBook) – Current line Steelers -5.5
  • Washington at Tampa Bay (PK, SuperBook) – Current line Buccaneers -3

There will be no shortage or betting action on the most anticipated Monday night game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams on November 19. The change of venue from Mexico City to Los Angeles impacted the betting and odds, and the sportsbooks had to void and refund a majority of the initial bets on the game with the venue change but re-opened the action with the Rams a 3.5-point favorite at most locations and an over/under of 63.5 points – still an NFL record after the total initially opened at 64 with the game scheduled in Mexico. The game has been moved from Mexico City to Los Angeles, but the Rams are practicing all week in Colorado Springs with the wildfires in LA and surrounding communities causing much disruption, displacement, and devastation to so many people and properties.

NFL Week 12 look-ahead betting lines

Thanksgiving week is always one of the most fun and festive weeks of the season, as families and friends enjoy their holiday time together while feasting on fantastic food and watching football. Expanded coverage includes three NFL games on Thanksgiving Day. Friday and Saturday is more football with some of the biggest college football rivalry games of the year and another big betting event on Friday, Nov. 23 when Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods tee it up at Shadow Creek Golf Course in Las Vegas in a winner-take-all $9 million 18-hole match play event. Unfortunately, it’s pay-per-view TV on Turner Sports, and more prop bets would enhance the betting and handle. Woods is a -210 favorite to beat Mickelson (+175).

More pro football follows on Sunday and Monday. The Week 12 NFL look ahead-lines show some key games of interest.

GameWestgate LineFanDuel Line
Chicago at Detroit (Thurs)CHI -3.5CHI -4
Washington at Dallas (Thurs)DAL -5DAL -4.5
Atlanta at New Orleans (Thurs)NO -10.5NO -7.5
Cleveland at CincinnatiCIN -3.5CIN -4.5
San Francisco at Tampa BayTB -5TB -4.5
Jacksonville at BuffaloJAX -4JAX -3
Oakland at BaltimoreOFFOFF
Seattle at CarolinaCAR -4.5CAR -3.5
New England at NY JetsNE -8NE -7
NY Giants at PhiladelphiaPHI -9.5PHI -7
Arizona at LA ChargersLAC -13 LAC -10.5
Miami at IndianapolisOFFIND -5.5
Pittsburgh at DenverPIT -6PIT -3.5
Green Bay at Minnesota MIN -4MIN -3.5
Tennessee at Houston (Mon)HOU -4HOU -3

How The Move From Mexico City Impacts Betting Odds And Tickets For Rams vs. Chiefs

FairwayJay November 14, 2018
Rams Chiefs Betting

What a mess in Mexico. The field at Estadio Azteca is apparently unplayable since it was torn up nine days ago by a concert. On Tuesday, the National Football League made the decision to move the Nov. 19 Monday night game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams to LA.

The players and teams had voiced their concerns about the field and safety, and you can hardly blame them looking at the pictures and videos.

“It’s not fair to risk our health,” a prominent player told ESPN’s NFL insider Adam Schefter on Tuesday.

Booking the bets

In what is expected to be one of the biggest betting games of the NFL season, the Rams opened as a 2.5-point favorite over the Chiefs at many sportsbooks across Nevada, New Jersey and the rest of the U.S. A record total of 64 points was initially posted at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas on the expected shootout before settling at 63 at a majority of the sportsbooks.

As a result of the move, bets placed at sportsbooks are now void at a majority of locations, per house rules.

House rules from the South Point in Las Vegas state:

IF GAME SITE CHANGES OR DATE OF THE EVENT CHANGES, ALL BETS PLACED AT THE FIRST GAME SITE OR FIRST DATE OF THE EVENT HAVE NO ACTION AND WILL BE REFUNDED.

Bettors may simply ask for a refund at the South Point sportsbook and other books where the bet is void.

However, at the Golden Nugget, sportsbook director Tony Miller said,  “tickets are action because the game is still being played on the date it was scheduled.”

The online screens at the sportsbooks went blank following the news, and then a number of books quickly reopened action on the game. Westgate SuperBook and South Point in Las Vegas posted Rams -3.5. William Hill reopened the Rams a 4-point favorite with a total of 64. In New Jersey, FanDuel Sportsbook voided all bets and then set a new line at Rams -3.5. Other sportsbooks have since followed with most at Rams -3.5.

The over/under is 63.5 or 64 total points.

“We already wrote a lot of money on the over,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “I just know come Monday night, we’re going to need the under.”

Cashing tickets

For bettors already in action on the game before the location change, many will get a full refund. No harm no foul from the upheaval. Some bettors, like that who got a ticket at the Golden Nugget, are locked in at Rams -2.5 or Chiefs +2.5.

But you’ll want to check with your sportsbook about their house rules on venue changes.

The disturbance and disorder caused by the venue change to the Coliseum won’t affect most bettors, who can still cash in. Betting early on the reposted line and total may benefit Rams and OVER the total bettors as the money flows in on the favorite in an expected shootout.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams will play Monday, Nov. 19 at Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles with kickoff is at 8:15 ET and 5:15 local Pacific time. It will be the first Monday Night Football game at the Coliseum in Los Angeles since Oct. 28, 1985, when the Los Angeles Raiders beat the San Diego Chargers 34-21.

ALSO READ: MNF Betting Preview For Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams

Record Betting Total (64) Set For Week 11 Rams Vs. Chiefs MNF Showdown

FairwayJay November 12, 2018
Rams Chiefs Total

Editor’s note: This game was moved to Los Angeles  due to poor field conditions in Mexico City.

One of the most anticipated games of the NFL season is set in Week 11, as the Los Angeles Rams (9-1) and Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) matchup features the two teams with the best records in the league.

The advance Week 11 look ahead lines had the Rams a -1.5-point favorite at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas and a 3-point favorite at the FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey.

Following the Week 10 games on Sunday, Nov. 11, the Rams are a 2.5-point favorite at many leading sportsbooks for the Monday, Nov. 19 showdown in Mexico City. The SuperBook has the Rams as 2-point favorites.

Record total for Rams vs. Chiefs

The buzz surrounding this showdown is the over/under, which was posted as a 64 total at the SuperBook.

With Monday’s 49ers-Giants game pending, teams have scored 7,070 points through 10 weeks of 2018 NFL action covering 147 games.

The scoring average is 48.1 points per game.

The Saints (36.7) now lead the league in scoring following their 51-14 blowout of the Bengals in Week 10. But the Chiefs (35.3) and Rams (33.5) are the next highest scoring teams in the league.

The total of 64 is the highest posted total for a regular season game in NFL history.

The previous highest total in ESPN’s Stats and Information database dating back to 1986 was the 2009 contest between the St. Louis Rams and San Francisco 49ers. The total was 62 and the Rams won 34-24.

Preparation, stats, and high-scoring offenses

This will be the third straight season the NFL has played a regular season game in Mexico City. The Raiders beat the Texans 27-20 in 2016 and the Patriots beat the Raiders 33-8 in 2017.

Azteca Stadium in Mexico City has an elevation of 7,300 feet, and the Rams are preparing for the high-altitude by practicing this week in Colorado Springs at the Air Force Academy practice facilities. Both the Rams and Chiefs played at Mile High Stadium in Denver in October, and both teams beat the Broncos in close contests but failed to cover the point spread. Broncos Stadium at Mile High is 5,280 feet above sea level.

Prior to the season, both the Chiefs and Rams made requests to play in Denver the week prior to their game in Mexico City, but each was denied by the league so either team would not be provided an advantage with the acclimation to altitude.

The Chiefs are a league-best 8-2 ATS this season. The Rams are now 4-6 ATS this season after starting 3-0 ATS. Eight Chiefs contests have had a betting total of at least 50 points, including Kansas City’s only loss of the season at New England (43-40) when the posted total hit 59.5.  Five Chiefs games have gone over the total this year.

On Nov. 4, the Rams suffered their only loss of the season in a 45-35 shootout at New Orleans. That total hit 60 and was actually bet down to 57 at game time as those under bettors watched their money fly away in the Saints’ shootout victory. Rams games have gone over in 5 of 10 contests, including the last two weeks with 80 and 67 points scored.

Those results, combined with the Chiefs and Rams scoring and ranking No. 1 and No. 3 in points per play on offense, and each top 5 in passing yards per game with quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes (9.13) and Jared Goff (9.44) also top 3 in yards per pass attempt, have the sportsbooks prepared for another shootout.

Five quarterbacks are on pace to pass for at least 5,000 yards this season, including Mahomes (3,150) and Goff (3,134), who are the two leaders in passing yards through 10 weeks.

Will either defense slow down these two high-scoring, creative offenses? The Rams defense allows 355 yards per game and the Chiefs allow 410. Both teams have allowed 6.0 yards per play.

Despite record scoring this season with more passing and flying footballs, the Chiefs (17th) and Rams (28th) both rank in the bottom half of the league in passing play percentage with the Chiefs passing the ball 59.44% of its plays and the Rams 54.48%.

Whatever the result, the leadup to the Chiefs and Rams game is going to attract tons of sports talk, betting and totals action.

You can bet on it.

NFL Week 11 Look-Ahead Lines And Betting Market Moves For Week 10

FairwayJay November 12, 2018
NFL Week11 Look ahead

The FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey has joined the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas in releasing NFL look-ahead lines, and the Week 11 advance lines are now available for wagering.

The Week 11 primetime games on Sunday and Monday night will feature first-place teams as the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears battle for the NFC North lead in Chicago. On Monday night in Mexico City, the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams will settle the score for the best record as both enter Week 10 at 8-1. Pittsburgh at Jacksonville is a Week 11 rematch from last year’s AFC playoff game, while Philadelphia at New Orleans is another game between two playoff teams from last year that are in position to return to the playoffs again this season.

Adjusting to market moves

The public piled on some big favorites last week and won big as many sportsbooks in Las Vegas and New Jersey suffered their worst Sunday of the season on Nov. 4. The big favorites were also playing losing teams and delivered relatively easy wins and covers as Kansas City (-8) beat Cleveland 37-21; Chicago (-10) buried Buffalo 41-9; Minnesota (-5) dogged Detroit 24-9; and Pittsburgh (+1.5) was bet hard off the key number of 3 and beat Baltimore 23-16 as a slight underdog. Those four results went many bettors way and destroyed the sportsbooks.

The tendency of many bettors is to over (or under) react to games and events they saw most recently, and to also bet against bad or losing teams. Two losing teams that will take little wagering action from the public as home underdogs in Week 10 are Cleveland (+4.5) vs. Atlanta and Oakland (+10) vs. the LA Chargers. The public will also pile on two first place teams that won for them last week as New Orleans (-5.5) travels to Cincinnati with the Bengals off their bye week, and New England (-6.5) travels to Tennessee to tackle the Titans, who won Monday night at Dallas and return home on a short week. Last week’s key victories by the Saints over the previously undefeated Rams and the Patriots Sunday night win over the Packers are two examples of winning teams that will get market support. New Orleans and New England have already seen an uptick of at least two points from the lookahead betting line to the current Week 10 line. More on that in a bit.

While it’s essential to make adjustments in your handicapping and sports betting approach based on information such as impactful injuries, statistical profiles, player performance and personnel changes, and scheduling situations including bye weeks, it’s also important to understand a bookmaker’s approach to setting the lines and its understanding of how bettors react to recent results.

The losing and perceived bad teams will have adjustments in the line, and especially following a poor performance. The Bookmaker knows how the public bettors will react, and if will be difficult to draw bets on those ‘losers’, thus an adjustment in price and the betting line as the bookmaker tries to make the bad teams look more appealing hoping to draw more action on the ugly underdogs. You can also see the adjustment in price on winning teams like New Orleans, New England, Kansas City, Chicago and the LA Chargers this week. Dallas’ dud on Monday night has also impacted the Week 11 line at Philadelphia.

Get A Risk Free Bet Up To $500 At FanDuel Sportsbook

Week 10 look-ahead lines and major moves

For the Week 10 games on Sunday, Nov. 11, these are the games where there was at least a 2-point difference from the look-ahead line in Las Vegas or New Jersey and current line:

  • Carolina at Pittsburgh (-6 at SuperBook) – Current line Steelers -3.5
  • New Orleans (-3.5 at FanDuel) at Cincinnati – Current line Saints -5.5
  • Atlanta (-1 at SuperBook) at Cleveland  – Current line Falcons -4
  • Washington at Tampa Bay (PK at SuperBook) – Current line Buccaneers -3
  • New England (-4 at FanDuel) at Tennessee – Current line Patriots -6.5
  • Miami at Green Bay (-7 at FanDuel) – Current line Packers -9.5
  • Detroit at Chicago (-4 at FanDuel) – Current line Bears -6.5
  • Arizona at Kansas City (-13 at FanDuel) – Current line Chiefs -16.5
  • LA Chargers (-6.5 at FanDuel) at Oakland – Current line Chargers -10
  • Dallas at Philadelphia (-5.5 at FanDuel) – Current line Eagles -7.5

Week 11 look-ahead lines

GameWestgate LineFanDuel Line
Green Bay at SeattleSEA -3SEA -2.5
Carolina at DetroitCAR -3CAR -1.5
Cincinnati at BaltimoreBAL -5.5BAL -6.5
Dallas at AtlantaATL -4.5ATL -3.5
Houston at WashingtonPKHOU -2
Pittsburgh at JacksonvillePIT -3PIT -2.5
Tampa Bay at NY GiantsPKTB -1.5
Tennessee at IndianapolisIND -3IND -3
Denver at LA ChargersLAC -6.5LAC -7
Oakland at ArizonaARI -3ARI -3
Philadelphia at New OrleansNO -6.5OFF
Minnesota at ChicagoCHI -2.5CHI -1
Kansas City vs LA Rams (Mexico)LAR -1.5LAR -3

NFL Week 10 Look-Ahead Lines And Betting Market Moves For Week 9

FairwayJay November 2, 2018
Week 10 Look-Ahead

The FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey has joined the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas in releasing NFL look-ahead lines, and we’ll include both sportsbooks in the Week 10 advance look ahead lines. While there are no big games in Week 10 to match the Week 9 showdown between the Saints and Rams or the Patriots and Packers, there will be plenty of betting as teams pushing for the playoffs the second half of the season.

Following the Raiders’ pitiful performance (again) on Thursday night in a 34-3 drubbing by the 49ers, Oakland’s Week 10 line when released following the Nov. 4 Week 9 games is likely to see the Raiders closer to a double-digit underdog when they host the LA Chargers. Oakland is now 1-7 and losers of 4-straight games all by 14 or more points.

Adjusting to market moves

The tendency of many bettors is to over (or under) react to games and events they saw most recently. That’s especially true on the nationally televised primetime games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night. As scoring continues at a record pace while averaging more than 48 points per game, the high-powered offenses will also influence the betting lines and totals, which are also being set by the linemaker at record highs. Three more games in Week 9 have totals set at 55 or higher, including the Saints and Rams showdown with a total of 60!

While it’s essential to make adjustments in your handicapping and sports betting approach based on information such as impactful injuries, statistical profiles, player performance and personnel changes, and scheduling situations, it’s also important to understand a bookmaker’s approach to setting the lines and its understanding of how bettors react to recent results.

The losing and perceived bad teams will have adjustments in the lines, especially following a poor performance. The bookmaker knows how the public bettors will react, and it will be difficult to draw bets on those ‘losers’, thus an adjustment in price and the betting line as the bookmaker tries to make the bad teams look more appealing on the betting line hoping to draw more action on the ugly underdogs.

Week 9 look-ahead lines and major moves

For the Week 9 games on Sunday, Nov. 4, these are the games where there was at least a two-point difference from the look-ahead line in Las Vegas and current line:

  • Tampa Bay at Carolina (-4.5) – Current line Panthers -6.5
  • Houston (-1.5) at Denver – Current line Broncos -1
  • Green Bay at New England (-7.5) – Current line Patriots -5.5
  • Tennessee at Dallas (-4) – Current line Cowboys -6

The trade deadline passed on Oct. 30, and some key trades will be worth watching as players like WR Demaryius Thomas goes from Denver to Houston, and plays for his new Texans team against the Broncos this week.

There are some of trades worth tracking, and while the impact of a wide receiver or running back has little impact on a betting line (one point at most point in some cases), the emotional impact or lock room effect is worth paying attention to in Week 9 and 10, as well as for those losing teams unloading players and playing out the string the second half of the season. There will be an over-reaction in the betting market, but sometimes there is addition by subtraction as teams also unload players that were not good for the team, like Ty Montgomery in Green Bay. For FanDuel players that bet at its new sportsbook app, and involved in fantasy football and the FanDuel contests, the player trades may have more of an effect on fantasy lineups and who to sit or start as teams move to new teams.

Week 10 look-ahead betting lines

GameWestgate LineFanDuel NJ Line
Carolina at PittsburghPIT -6PIT -3.5
New Orleans at CincinnatiNO -4NO -3.5
Atlanta at ClevelandATL -1ATL -3
Detroit at ChicagoCHI -4CHI -4
Arizona at Kansas CityKC -14.5KC -13
New England at TennesseeNE -6NE -4
Washington at Tampa BayPKTB -1.5
Buffalo at NY JetsNYJ -7NYJ -7.5
Jacksonville at IndianapolisIND -2.5IND -1.5
LA Chargers at OaklandLAC -7.5LAC -6.5
Seattle at LA RamsLAR -8LAR -9.5
Miami at Green BayOFFGB -7
Dallas at PhiladelphiaPHI -6PHI -5.5
NY Giants at San FranciscoSF -2.5SF -1.5

Expanded 2018 Breeders’ Cup Betting Menu Will Include Head-To-Head Matchups

FairwayJay October 29, 2018
Breeders Cup Betting

I’m making my first-ever trip to Churchill Downs this week for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships on Nov. 2-3. My coverage of this event goes beyond the beauty and pageantry of racing’s biggest event of the year. I’m a sports handicapper and analyst and provide some coverage for Twinspires and Churchill Downs on betting the races and sports. And like sports betting, finding value and betting it will provide more profit when playing the ponies.

The Breeders’ Cup consists of 14 races with prize pools from $1 to $6 million totaling more than $30 million. Full fields of 14 horses in all but one of the races provides the opportunity for more winners at bigger prices and odds. And this year, the expanded menu will include head-to-head matchups and increased betting opportunities which should prove to be very popular.

Future Stars Friday

A record 221 horses were pre-entered for this year’s  Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The final entrants, post positions and odds were determined on Monday. All of the races on the Breeders’ Cup card each year play a critical role in determining year-end champions in the respective divisions.

For the first time in Breeders’ Cup history, the championships will have all the 2-year-old races on opening day Nov. 2, dubbed “Future Stars Friday.” These five juvenile races are part of the expanded wagering menu that will include the “Future Stars Friday Pick 5,” where horse players can bet on the top-5 finishers in correct order for each race. A difficult wager to hit, the payoffs can be big and multi-million-dollar betting pools are nothing new to the Breeders’ Cup. The “Future Stars Friday Pick 5” will have a guaranteed pool of $1 million. There will be three additional Pick 5 wagering opportunities on Saturday, Nov. 3 when nine Breeders’ Cup races make up the biggest racing day of the year. The late Pick 5 on Saturday has a $2 million guaranteed prize pool and includes the $6 million Classic, which will have a carryover pool added if none of the first three Pick-5s produce a winner.

The Pick 5 is one of the most popular wagers in the country as it offers a $.50-cent minimum wager and a player-friendly 15% takeout, allowing more racing fans to take a shot at a bigger payday with less takeout. In addition, the Jackpot Super High 5 wager also with a $.50-cent minimum will be offered on every race on the Friday and Saturday cards, including the undercard races on Friday. If the bet goes unhit and there are no winning tickets, the carryover pool will continue to the next race, including into Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup card.

Head-to-Head wagering added  

Sports bettors and racing fans familiar with head-to-head match-up wagering in golf, or wagers that have no point spread and are offered as an even-money proposition will certainly like having the head-to-head wagering option. For a $10 minimum wager with a 10% takeout rate, the Breeders’ Cup will select three head-to-head offerings Friday and four on Saturday. One will include the race favorite Accelerate in the $6 million Classic against a to-be-determined horse running in the race, perhaps one of the two Bob Baffert-trained colts West Coast or McKinzie. A bettor can simply bet on which horse will finish ahead of the other in a head-to-head match-up of a race.

Gambling on horse racing

The biggest gamble in horse racing is at the auctions, where people or groups of people and syndicates bid and buy horses hoping to score the next Triple Crown winner like Justify this year. But the odds are stacked against them and those racehorse owners or partners can spend millions on horses with a very low percentage of them ever running in a Triple Crown race of the Breeders’ Cup. Out of the 2,916 yearlings sold for $377 million at this year’s September yearling sale at Keeneland, an hour from Churchill Downs, 27 sold for at least $1 million.

“Lottery tickets are getting more expensive, and that’s basically what it is,” Baffert said. “… We all know at the end of the day, the percentage of them that’s going to be really good horses is pretty low. But it’s the dream, you know.”

And at the Breeders’ Cup, regular race fans can dream of a big score with less risk when wagering on the expanded Pick 5s or the exacta, trifecta, superfecta or Pick-6. Head-to-head match-up betting and win wagers will be popular for the horse players and fans, and add to the bottom line for the Breeders’ Cup. But the bottom line is to have fun, enjoy the entertainment and profit from the experience. A few winning wagers will help.

NFL Week 9 Look-Ahead Lines And Betting Market Moves For Week 8

FairwayJay October 28, 2018
NFL Look Ahead Week 8

The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas has released the NFL look-ahead lines for Week 9, and there will be some marquee match-ups to look forward to with Pittsburgh at Baltimore, LA Rams at New Orleans, and Green Bay at New England on Sunday night.

However, as we approach the halfway point of the NFL season in Week 8, three AFC preseason favorites are leading their divisions with New England (5-2), Pittsburgh (3-2-1) and Kansas City (6-1) on top, while Jacksonville (3-4) is one game behind AFC South leader Houston (5-3). The stronger NFC also has three preseason conference favorites leading their divisions with the LA Rams (7-0), New Orleans (5-1) and Minnesota (4-2-1) on top while Washington (4-2) is the surprise in the NFC East with defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia (3-4) playing catchup.

You’ll pay a little price to bet on many of these division leaders in the second half of the season, and you’ll see that in the weekly market moves and lookahead lines.

Adjusting to market moves

The tendency of many bettors is to over (or under) react to games and events they saw most recently. That’s especially true on the nationally televised primetime games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night. As scoring continues at a record pace while averaging more than 48 points per game, the high-powered offenses will also influence the betting lines and totals, which are also being set by the linemaker at record highs.

While it’s essential to make adjustments in your handicapping and sports betting approach based on information such as impactful injuries, statistical profiles, player performance and personnel changes, and scheduling situations, it’s also important to understand a bookmaker’s approach to setting the lines and its understanding of how bettors react to recent results.

If you followed and bet on the biggest adjusted market moves of at least two points last week, you went 2-4 ATS. So while recent results, injuries and public perception have impacted these games more than others from an adjusted line standpoint, it’s worth noting that the potential overreaction to last week’s results and the adjusted price is not always a profitable play towards the team with the bigger adjusted line moves.

Also note that home underdogs were buried last week, going 1-5 SU/ATS after going 20-10 ATS through the first six weeks.

Week 8 look-ahead lines and major moves

For the Week 8 games on Sunday, Oct. 28, these are the games where there was at least a two-point difference from the look-ahead line in Las Vegas and current line:

  • Philadelphia vs Jacksonville (PK) – Current line Eagles -3
  • New York Jets at Chicago (-5) – Current line Bears -7
  • Washington at New York Giants (-1) – Current line Redskins -1
  • Baltimore at Carolina (PK) – Current line Ravens -2
  • Indianapolis at Oakland (-1) – Current line Colts -3
  • San Francisco at Arizona (-2) – Current line 49ers PK
  • New Orleans at Minnesota (-3) – Current line Vikings -1
  • New England (-10.5) at Buffalo – Current line Patriots -14

The worst teams in the league have clearly been identified, and the linemaker understands this knowing bigger line adjustments often need to be made as most bettors will not be putting their money on these losers – Bills (2-5), Cardinals (1-6), Raiders (1-6) and Giants (1-6). Oakland and New York also trading away players as the trading deadline approaches Oct. 30, and the white flag is raised in rebuilding mode. The stats also suggest these teams are going to struggle most weeks, as Buffalo (11.6), Arizona (13.1) Oakland (18.3) and New York (19.6) are all averaging less than 20 points per game, and the Cardinals (220 yards per game) and Bills (234 YPG) offenses are completely dreadful in a year when offenses and scoring are producing records. The last two years, the worst offenses in the league averaged 280 YPG and 262 YPG.

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NFL Week 9 look-ahead betting lines

  • Oakland at San Francisco (-2.5) – Thursday Night
  • Chicago at Buffalo (OFF)
  • Tampa Bay at Carolina (-4.5)
  • Kansas City (-7) at Cleveland
  • New York Jets at Miami (OFF)
  • Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-3)
  • Detroit at Minnesota (-6.5)
  • Atlanta at Washington  (-1)
  • Houston (-1.5) at Denver
  • Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle (PK)
  • Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans (PK)
  • Green Bay at New England (-7.5) – Sunday Night
  • Tennessee at Dallas (-4) – Monday Night

NBA Totals Betting Booms As Scoring Surges During Opening Week

FairwayJay October 23, 2018
NBA Totals Betting

The NBA has created a new pinball machine, and bookmakers are going on tilt. Scoring has surged to record levels the opening week, and the new plasma pop bumpers are spinning out of control as scoring erupts. The first 46 games of the season had 10,162 points scored for an average of 220.9 points per game. Take out the two overtime games on Monday, Oct. 22 and scoring is still averaging 219.7 PPG in regulation.

The record scoring has resulted in 29 OVERS and 17 UNDERS, as the OVER is hitting at a 63% rate thus far.

According to BetLabs and its proprietary sports betting information and database, OVERS in the month of October have been profitable only four times in the past 11 years.

Last season, there were 13 times when a team scored at least 140 points in a game. In the first week of the 2018-19 NBA season, two teams have scored at least 140 points as the Mavericks scored 140 on the Timberwolves and the Pelicans poured in 149 points against Sacramento. The Kings had the lowest season win total of all NBA teams at 25.5, but Sacramento has come out scoring and its defense is dreadful through three games, as the total in the Kings games has gone over in all three games by an average of 36 points per game. Dallas, Minnesota and Utah games are also going over by an average of 30 points per game.

From 2005 through 2015, NBA scoring averaged 99 points per game (PPG). The 2016-17 season saw scoring average 103 PPG and last season scoring averaged 106 PPG, which was the highest since the early 1990s. It appears scoring records will be shattered this season.

Bookmaker adjustments

The bookmakers are usually quick to adjust to totals, but it still been a struggle trying to figure out the pace, shooting and scoring. Of the 29 games that have gone over the total, 20 of them eclipsed the total by at least 10 points. And 11 of those games went over the total by at least 20 points. On Oct. 22, seven of the nine games had posted totals of at least 224 points. Four of them still went over the total. So even with the adjustment upward on the totals, scoring is still sailing over the adjusted totals and the players are beating the bookmakers early this season when betting overs.

Why the scoring increase?

Rule changes with a point of education and emphasis on buckling down on perimeter contact and less clutch, grab and bumping in the half court are designed to allow more freedom of movement. There has also been more whistles and fouls called inside. New rule changes include:

  • The shot clock reset to 14 seconds in offensive rebounding situations, as opposed to 24 seconds in seasons past.
  • Simplification of the Clear Path Foul Rule – personal foul against any offensive player during his team’s transition scoring opportunity.

Pace of play is up to an average of more than 105 possessions per game, up from 102 possessions per game the opening week of last season. All of last season saw possessions per game average 100 per game. No team last season averaged more than 105 possessions per game, but this season 18 teams are averaging at least 105 possessions per game.

The Hawks, Kings and Lakers are all averaging at least 110 possessions per game.

Last season, only the Houston Rockets produced more than 36% of its points from 3-pointers. This season, the Bucks and Rockets are scoring more than 40% of its points from long range, and Hawks, Hornets, Jazz and Suns are all greater than 36% scoring from 3-point range.

Through one full week and 46 games, a total of 2,219 fouls have been called for an average of 48.2 fouls per game, up from 39.8 fouls per game last season.

Free throws are averaging more than 51 per game, up from 43.4 last year. And 11 teams are making at least 20 free throws per game, while just one team made at least 20 per game last season.

Five teams, including the world champion Warriors, are shooting at least 49% field goals this early season, and only Golden State hit better than 49% shooting each of the last two seasons.

Will scoring continue at record pace?

There will always be a correction in the market, and bookmakers will adjust and post higher totals. Coaches and teams will make adjustments as well and defensive improvement and efficiency numbers will be something to monitor moving forward. Across the league, 10 of 30 teams are giving up at least 120 points per game. Through the end of play on the first Sunday last season, just two teams were giving up 120 on average. The Denver Nuggets are 3-0 SU/ATS and the only team to allow less than 100 points in all three contests including Sunday’s 100-98 win over Golden State.

Rule changes including shot clot reset are impacting play, pace and tighter calls are resulting in more fouls and free throws. More freedom of movement and increased scoring is what the NBA wants in hopes of providing a more entertaining brand of basketball. Perhaps it’s being overdone in the early season, but scoring is surging and record scoring is inevitable.

You can bet on it.

NFL Look-Ahead Betting Lines And Market Moves For Week 7

FairwayJay October 19, 2018
Look Ahead Week 7

The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas has released the NFL look-ahead lines for Week 8, and just one home underdog is on the card. That follows a Week 6 that saw three home underdogs pull upsets and home dogs go 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS. Dallas, Washington and Miami all won outright as home underdogs. The season-to-date numbers show home underdogs very profitable at 20-10 ATS.

However, the Week 6 look ahead lines had Washington and Miami favored before the market adjusted and bookmakers took more bets on the other side with Carolina and Chicago betters ultimately getting burned. Same with Browns bettors, as Cleveland opened a underdog over the LA Chargers before closing a slight favorite and burying Browns bettors in an embarrassing 38-14 defeat.

The tendency of many bettors is to over (or under) react to games and events they saw most recently. That’s especially true on the nationally televised primetime games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night. More so this week as New England beat Kansas City 43-40 Sunday night and Green Bay rallied to beat San Francisco at the wire 33-30, continuing the record-setting scoring this season.

Adjusting to market moves

While it’s essential to make adjustments in your handicapping and sports betting approach based on information such as impactful injuries, statistical profiles, player performance, and scheduling situations, it’s also important to understand a bookmaker’s approach to setting the lines and its understanding of how bettors react to recent results.

Last week’s four biggest market moves from the look-ahead line to the adjusted line following the Week 6 results saw Baltimore, Seattle and Tampa Bay all cover the adjusted price while Chicago bettors got buried by the Bears in a road loss at Miami.

Week 7 look-ahead lines and major moves

For the Week 7 games on Sunday, Oct. 21, these are the games where there was at least a two-point difference from the look-ahead line and current line:

  • Tennessee at LA Chargers (-3) – Current line Chargers -6.5
  • Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-1.5) – Current line Buccaneers -3.5
  • Buffalo at Indianapolis (-5.5) – Current line Colts -7.5
  • New Orleans at Baltimore (PK) – Current line Ravens -2.5
  • LA Rams at San Francisco (+12.5) – Current line Rams -10
  • NY Giants at Atlanta (-3.5) – Current line Falcons -5.5 (Monday night)

Recent results, injuries and public perception have impacted these games more than others from an adjusted line standpoint. Particularly with the Buffalo Bills, as QB Josh Allen is out indefinitely following an elbow injury last week and head coach Sean McDermott announced Wednesday that Derek Anderson would start at quarterback instead of Nathan Peterman, who threw another costly interception late in last week’s loss at Houston. Anderson has been with the Bills less than one week.

Browns bettors burned last week probably won’t be betting on Cleveland this week at Tampa Bay despite the apparent added value in the line. Much of American saw the shootout in New England Sunday night as the Patriots held off the previously undefeated Kansas City 43-40. Since the Bears blew the game at Miami and cost many bettors money, it’s likely public bettors will support the Patriots this week at Chicago, despite the likely letdown situation off the big win over Kansas City and the Bears boasting the stronger defense and overall stat profiles.

As you watch and evaluate the games, injuries, key game-changing calls and go inside the numbers in boxscores and stats, try your best not to overreact to the scores and a recent result or two. By looking ahead to the point spread posted in advance by the Westgate, you can better gauge and understand the bookmaker’s thoughts and approach and make your adjustments without influence from the recent games and results.

NFL Week 8 look-ahead betting lines

  • Miami at Houston (OFF) – Thursday Night
  • Philadelphia vs Jacksonville (PK) – London
  • Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-7.5)
  • Denver at Kansas City (-9.5)
  • New York Jets at Chicago (-5)
  • Washington at New York Giants (-1)
  • Seattle at Detroit (-2.5)
  • Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (-5)
  • Baltimore at Carolina (PK)
  • Indianapolis at Oakland (-1.5)
  • San Francisco at Arizona (-2)
  • Green Bay at Los Angeles Rams (-8.5)
  • New Orleans at Minnesota (-3) – Sunday Night
  • New England (-10.5) at Buffalo – Monday Night

ALSO READ:  NFL Week 7 Lines And NJ Betting Guide

NFL Look-Ahead Betting Lines And Market Moves For Week 6

FairwayJay October 11, 2018
NFL Look Ahead Week 6

Every Tuesday, the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas releases the NFL look-ahead lines for the following week’s games. These are anticipated betting lines on the following week’s games prior to the current week’s games being played.

The tendency of many bettors is to over (or under) react to games and events we saw most recently. That’s especially true on the nationally televised primetime games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night.

Adjusting to market moves

While it’s essential to make adjustments in your handicapping and sports betting approach based on information such as impactful injuries, statistic profiles, player performance, and scheduling situations, it’s also important to understand a bookmaker’s approach to setting the lines and its understanding of how bettors react to recent results.

Most bettors will bet the favorites, and over the total. Yet in Week 3 many bettors were buried as underdogs went 11-5 against the spread (ATS). We’ve seen scoring rise this season through five weeks to nearly 48 points per game, and the linemaker has adjusted the posted totals upward accordingly every week.

Usually, there is not much difference in the NFL look ahead/advance line and the current line once the numbers are posted Sunday night and Monday morning. However, there are usually at least a few games where the line is 2-3 points difference between the look-ahead line and current line.

Week 6 look-ahead lines and major moves

For the Week 6 games on Sunday, Oct. 14, these are the games where there was at least a two-point difference from the look-ahead line and current line:

  • Chicago at Miami (-1) – Current Line Miami +3.5
  • Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-6) – Current Line Atlanta -3
  • Seattle vs Oakland (PK) in London – Current Line Seattle -3
  • Baltimore at Tennessee (+1) – Current Line Tennessee +3

Recent results, injuries and public perception and have impacted these four games more than others from an adjusted line standpoint. Both the Bears and Bucs enter off a bye, and Miami lost badly at New England two weeks ago and then blew a 17-0 lead last week at Cincinnati in a 27-17 defeat that left Dolphins bettors bitter. Fewer bettors are lining up on Miami now.

Atlanta is battling through numerous player injuries especially on defense. Oakland continues to struggle, and bettors want no part of the Raiders right now while Seattle hung tough with the LA Rams last week, but a letdown could be looming and both teams defenses have been deficient. Tennessee lost at Buffalo last week, costing many bettors money both straight up and in teasers. The Ravens also cost bettors in an OT loss at Cleveland, but this too is an overreaction in the line.

The NFL is difficult for most bettors to beat when betting, yet there is certainly no lack of excitement or drama when it comes to deciding which teams win and lose each week, or the point spread outcome. That’s part of the reason why the NFL is so popular, as so many games are decided late in the contest with the point spread result in the balance. In Week 4 alone, nine of the 15 games went down to the final possession, and three games went to overtime on Sunday.

As you watch and evaluate the games, injuries, key game-changing calls and go inside the numbers in boxscores and stats, try your best not to overreact to the scores and a recent result or two. By looking ahead to the point spread posted in advance by the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas, you can stay more grounded and understand the linemakers approach and thoughts on a game and betting line more than a week in advance of the contests.

NFL Week 7 look-ahead betting lines

  • Denver (-2.5) at Arizona – Thursday Night
  • Tennessee vs LA Chargers (-3) – London
  • New England (-3) at Chicago
  • Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-1.5)
  • Detroit (-2) at Miami
  • Carolina at Philadelphia (-3)
  • Buffalo at Indianapolis (-5.5)
  • Cincinnati at Kansas City (-6.5)
  • Minnesota (-4) at NY Jets
  • Houston at Jacksonville (N/A)
  • New Orleans at Baltimore (PK)
  • Dallas at Washington (-3)
  • LA Rams (-12.5) at San Francisco – Sunday Night
  • NY Giants at Atlanta (-3.5) – Monday Night

ALSO READ:  NFL Week 6 Lines And NJ Betting Guide