The PGA TOUR travels from the 2021 U.S. Open coastal California Poa venue to the 2019 U.S. Open coastal California Poa venue, with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am next on tap. This week, the emphasis shifts from distance to short iron precision, as the three sub-7,200 yard set ups will feature more forgiving fairways at the expense of miniscule greens. Below, we’ll look at 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds and preview the courses.
I am three for my last three on Pebble Beach outrights. Those three were Gary Woodland’s 2019 U.S. Open victory and back-to-back AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am wins from Daniel Berger and Tom Hoge. We’ll use the same formula to project top contenders this week as we set out for four straight.
2023 OPENING AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM ODDS: THE FAVORITES
The number of players with odds shorter than 20-1 vary by sportsbook. Scroll to the bottom to compare complete outright odds across major sportsbooks in your state.
Tournament Overcomes January Flooding
It is a minor miracle that we’re even seeing tournament play at Monterey Peninsula this week. Monterey County experienced critical flooding in early January, decimating the neighboring Dunes Course. Monterey Peninsula Country Club’s Shore Course will be good to go this week, but suffice to say the courses will play softer than usual this year. Its exposure to the coastal elements also goes without saying.
Here’s a look at everything you can expect at the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Click on odds to bet now.
THE FIELD AT A GLANCE
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am– once a top-heavy event buoyed by annual appearances from the likes of Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger, and Jason Day– lost its luster over recent years. The Saudi International plays head-to-head against the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and its
growing popularity gaudy appearance fees have continued to lure top players from the PGA TOUR. Last year, the Saudi International featured a more top-heavy field than the TOUR’s primary event, which is a rarity. Viktor Hovland played in the Saudi International last year, but flips back to Pebble Beach in 2023.
Notable TOUR players who are expected to hop overseas and play in the Saudi International include Cameron Young, Cameron Champ, and Lucas Herbert. Cue up the LIV speculation!
As for those in the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach field, there is a clear Big Three: Matt Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland, and Jordan Spieth. They each represent the OWGR top-15. Given his unblemished history at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Spieth is expected to be the favorite when odds release on Monday. In a second tier, Maverick McNealy, Tom Hoge, and Seamus Power also suit the course well and will open with short odds in this relatively thin field.
Tom Hoge is back to defend his title his after a late surge past Spieth in 2022 to pick up his first career victory. Other past winners of this event returning to the field this week include Nick Taylor, Ted Potter Jr, Jordan Spieth, Vaughn Taylor, Jimmy Walker, and D.A. Points.
INTRODUCTION TO THE THREE-COURSE ROTATION
It’s the third week in a row we’ll be navigating a multi-course rotation. Mercifully, this will be the last rotating course set-up we see this season. Variety is fine, but cycling through multiple courses means less Strokes Gained data and an added variable of the field not playing the same courses under the same daily conditions.
Pebble Beach is one of my favorites and one of the most iconic, picturesque courses in the United States. It’s a shame we only get to see two rounds played here each year. That randomness makes it more difficult to predict what’s going to happen with historical data. Pebble Beach, which will host two rounds, is the only course equipped with ShotLink. That will be used for the basis of this week’s Strokes Gained research.
Similar to The American Express, this week’s Pro-Am will feature a three-day rotation across Pebble Beach, Monterey Peninsula, and Spyglass Hill Thursday through Saturday, with the top-60 and ties advancing to the final round at Pebble Beach.
Unlike The AmEx, there is some bite to these courses. Pro-Ams are typically designed to not kill the amateurs. The Poa greens will roll on the slower side and rough will not be grown to its limits with the amateurs in mind. However, we’ve seen modest winning scores in the mid-teens year in, year out at this event. The exposure to high coastal winds is mostly to thank for keeping the scoring in check, but despite all three courses playing under 7,100 yards, they each present their own challenges.
Pebble Beach features some of the smallest greens we see on TOUR all season at just 3,500 square feet in average green size. This puts an emphasis on playing from the fairway and dialing in approach shots. It also yields one of the lowest Greens In Regulation percentages on TOUR, making SG: Around The Green a key stat for this week.
Due to the angular hole layouts, Pebble Beach concedes the shortest average driving distance on TOUR. That forces layups on many holes off the tee and almost completely removes any advantage for longer hitters. Average driving distance at Pebble Beach has fallen around 274 yards (well below the TOUR average of 290 yards) to illustrate the persistence of forced layups here.
The historical scoring average is 0.9 strokes over par. Depending on how much the winds decide to pick up, this course can really pose a challenge to the field, despite the short length on the scorecard. The top 10 players in terms of SG: TOT at Pebble Beach are Jordan Spieth, Nate Lashley, Maverick McNealy, Kevin Streelman, Matthew NeSmith, Jimmy Walker, J.B. Holmes, Matt Kuchar, Marcel Siem, and Danny Willett. Notables who have struggled at Pebble Beach despite success at the other two courses in rotation include Joel Dahmen, Mark Hubbard, Denny McCarthy, and Jonas Blixt.
There’s less data to discern through on the Monterey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill courses. What we do know is that the Monterey Peninsula course is the easiest of the three. This is where players will need to capitalize, especially if winds are down. Monterey Peninsula is a 6,958-yard Par-71 with five Par-3s, four Par-5s, and nine Par-4s. The Par-5s are gettable and should generate copious birdie and eagle opportunities. The scoring average on Monterey Peninsula is about 0.7 strokes under par.
The top 10 players in terms of SG: TOT at Monterey Peninsula are: Sung Kang, Jonas Blixt, Andrew Putnam, Brice Garnett, Nick Taylor, Jonathan Byrd, Jimmy Walker, Jordan Spieth, Mark Hubbard, and Lucas Glover. This suggests a clear trend among short, driving-accuracy specialists with spike putting upside. Notables who have struggled at Monterey Peninsula despite success at the other two courses in rotation include Seamus Power, Matthew NeSmith, Troy Merritt, and Kevin Streelman.
Power notably set the 36-hole scoring record at the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, before a +3 Saturday showing on the “easy” Monterey Peninsula course, making him an intriguing bounce back candidate in 2023.
Spyglass Hill poses the most difficult test of the three courses. There are five holes exposed to the coast, but otherwise it is tree-lined to help protect itself from the elements. When winds are up, Spyglass has played as the most difficult test of the three; when winds are down, it plays slightly easier than Pebble Beach. The longest of the three at 7,035 yards, this Par-72 features four Par 4s under 400 yards where players will need to capitalize. The scoring average here has played to about 0.5 strokes over par.
Similar to what we saw most recently at at Torrey Pines last week– as well as other coastal layouts like Port Royal and Waialae CC– these grounds are very exposed to the coastline and will be highly susceptible to coastal winds. It will be key to keep an eye out for weather reports throughout the week to see if there is an advantage for any of the course rotation waves, or AM/PM tee time splits.
The top 10 players in terms of SG: TOT at Spyglass Hill are Joel Dahmen, Jordan Spieth, Beau Hossler, Nick Watney, Luke Donald, Seung-yul Noh, Justin Rose, Kevin Streelman, Seamus Power, and Denny McCarthy. Top-iron players who can confidently flight approaches into varying coastal winds have found the most success at Spyglass Hill. That correlates similarly with the list of players who have found success at Pebble Beach as well. Notables who have struggled at Spyglass Hill despite success at the other two courses in rotation include Harry Higgs, Jimmy Walker, Brian Gay, and Ted Potter Jr. This furthers the point that putting specialists who are inconsistent ball-strikers have been exposed on Spyglass Hill when it plays difficult.
- Par (Pebble Beach & Spyglass Hill): 72 (4x 3s / 10x 4s / 4x 5s)
- Par (Monterey Peninsula): 71 (5x 3s / 9x 4s / 4x 5s)
- Yards: 6,816 (PB), 6,958 (MP), 7,035 (SGH)
- Greens (All): Poa (Slow)
- Rough (All): 2″ Rye and Poa Blend (Short)
- Average Green Size: 3,500 sq. ft. (PB), 5,000 sq. ft. (MP), 6,000 sq. ft. (SGH)
- Average Fairway Width (PB): 43 yards (Above-Average)
- Architect: Jack Nevill & Douglas Grant (PB), Robert Baldock (MP), Robert Trent Jones Sr (SGH)
- Historical Cut Line: -5
- Comp Courses: Waialae CC, Port Royal, Colonial CC, Mayakoba El Camaleon, Sea Island, Harbour Town, Stadium Course, TPC River Highlands, Liberty National, Sedgefield CC, Riviera CC
AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM ODDS: BETTING TRENDS & COURSE HISTORY
|Year||Winner||Pre-Tournament Odds||Winning Score||Field Median Score|
|2018||Ted Potter Jr.||+50000||-17||-5|
Over the last 10 years, it’s been a mixed bag of favorites and longshots winning this event. Five players won at shorter than 25-1 odds and five players won at longer than 25-1 odds over that span. Course History is repeatable at Pebble Beach, so it’s best to approach betting this event by identifying players with past success, regardless of price.
With Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Daniel Berger, and Dustin Johnson all absent this week, it’s Jordan Spieth who stands in a class of his own in terms of dominance across courses at this event. In addition to his win in 2017, the AT&T spokesman has posted six total top-10 finishes since 2014– including a runner up finish last year– where he famously pushed the course to its limits. He was the first round leader at the Sony Open, and is the presumptive favorite entering this week.
The top 10 players in this field in terms of total strokes gained at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am after Spieth are: Kevin Streelman, Maverick McNealy, Nick Taylor, Jimmy Walker, Nate Lashley, Matt Kuchar, Justin Rose, Matthew NeSmith, and Scott Stallings.
Seven players have posted multiple T15 finishes over the last five years. That list includes: Jordan Spieth, Kevin Streelman, Nick Taylor, Troy Merritt, Scott Stallings, Russell Knox, Maverick McNealy, Tom Hoge, Joel Dahmen, and Brian Gay. A few others with multiple top-25 finishes over the same span include Matthew NeSmith, Scott Piercy, Lanto Griffin, and Kevin Chappell.
Just five players have avoided missing the cut here over the last five years (min. three appearances): Jordan Spieth, Troy Merritt, Matthew NeSmith, Joel Dahmen, and Trey Mullinax.
It’s not the easiest week to hone in on Comp Courses. The courses share sub-7,200 yardage and exposure to the coastline, which is susceptible to high winds. In general, Short Course History appears to be translatable here. The top-10 players SG: TOT (<7,200 Yards) are Seamus Power, Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick, Maverick McNealy, Ben Griffin, Thomas Detry, Andrew Putnam, Keith Mitchell, Matthew NeSmith, and Tom Hoge. All are sensible fits with proven prior results at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
It’s tricky factoring performance in high winds into any modeling given that gusting winds do not effect all players the same. Honing in on SG: TOT across Short, Coastal, and Windy courses, the top 10 are: Webb Simpson, Maverick McNealy, Seamus Power, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Denny McCarthy, Ryan Palmer, Tom Hoge, Taylor Pendrith, and Brian Stuard.
Looking at specific comp courses, Colonial CC looks to be the best one in terms of corollary success. Like the courses on tap this week, Colonial is short and rewards accurate, positional play off the tee and can be played in high sustained winds. That places more of an emphasis on around the green play. Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, and Phil Mickelson each have wins at both events.
I also like Waialae CC, Port Royal, Sea Island, Harbour Town, Liberty National, and El Camaleon as recent short, windy, and coastal tracks. TPC River Highlands, Stadium Course, and Sedgefield CC place a similar emphasis on positional play, while Riviera CC is worth a reference for similar Poa greens.
The top 10 players in SG: TOT at these comp courses are Viktor Hovland, Seamus Power, Jordan Spieth, Maverick McNealy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ben Griffin, Thomas Detry, Keith Mitchell, Andrew Putnam, and Erik van Rooyen.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER FOR 2023 AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM ODDS
- SG: APP
- Good Drives Gained / Driving Accuracy
- SG: ARG
- Prox: 75-150 (100-125 emphasis)
- Par-4: 350-450
- Opportunities Gained
- SG: TOT (<7,200 Yard Courses)
- SG: P (Poa)
- Course & Comp Course History
Off The Tee
You don’t have to be a fairway-finding specialist to put yourself in position off the tee this week. Many players who may normally reach back for extra distance at the expense of hitting more fairways will be forced to keep their driver in the bag on these courses. With that in mind, Driving Accuracy may be a bit of a misleading stat to weight heavily this week, knowing that players will be looking to lay up more often.
This week is setting up as more of a second-shot course. I like the Good Drives Gained stat in place of the usual SG: OTT, Driving Distance, or Driving Accuracy stats, as it also incorporates approach play. Players who get themselves into position to reach greens in regulation should create the most scoring opportunities at this event. The top 10 players in Good Drives Gained are: Ryan Armour, Kevin Yu, Justin Suh, Will Gordon, David Lipsky, Doug Ghim, Andrew Putnam, Ben Taylor, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Matthew NeSmith.
Strokes Gained: Approach is crucial every week on TOUR, but at a second shot course like Pebble Beach which features some of the smallest greens we see all year, it’s even more paramount. The top 10 players SG: APP entering this week are: Tom Hoge, Russell Knox, Mark Hubbard, Matthew NeSmith, Callum Tarren, Erik van Rooyen, Chesson Hadley, Ben Griffin, Alex Smalley, and David Lipsky.
Looking at the distribution of approach shots historically at Pebble Beach, they largely funnel below 150 yards, with an emphasis on 100-125. It’s difficult to rely on Proximity in 25-yard increments, so I’m looking for players who excel from 75-150 yards. The top-10 from that group are: Tom Hoge, Russell Knox, Ben Griffin, Davis Riley, Erik van Rooyen, Brendon Todd, David Lipsky, Greyson Sigg, Ryan Moore, and Andrew Novak.
Par-4 Hole Range
The hole ranges are fairly evenly distributed between the three courses, but 40% fall between 350-450 yards. The top 10 in Par-4 Scoring from this range are: Thomas Detry, Ben Griffin, Denny McCarthy, Tom Hoge, Ben Martin, Cameron Percy, David Lipsky, Justin Lower, Greyson Sigg, and Matt Fitzpatrick.
With only half of the rounds being played on Pebble Beach, it’s difficult to draw any conclusive trends from past SG: TOT correlations. What we do know in looking through the list of players with top event history, is that stats like Good Drives Gained, SG: APP, Comp Short Course History, SG: ARG, SG: P (Poa), Par-4: 350-450, and Prox: 75-150 should serve as reliable indicators of success. Seven players rate out above-average in each of those categories: Ben Griffin, Matt Kuchar, Brendon Todd, Thomas Detry, Nick Taylor, Adam Long, and David Lipsky.
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: DAVID LIPSKY
It’s not a pretty sight, sifting through an AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am field that features just seven OWGR top-50 players. While the contender options may not pass the eye test, there are still some hidden gems who display the course fit, recent form, or proven ability to close out tournaments needed to compete at Pebble Beach.
Few check all three boxes, but David Lipsky is one of them.
After completing his first full season on the PGA TOUR last year, Lipsky earned himself a seat at the Coastal Elites table. Dating back to the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Lipsky posted 11 top-30 finishes. Seven of those came on windy coastal courses. That includes four top-10 finishes between the Corales Puntacana Championship, Mexico Open, Mayakoba Championship, and Sony Open; which are four of the most wind-effected tournaments each year. Flighting approach shots through different pockets of coastal winds will be crucial this week. It’s encouraging to see Lipsky has been able to repeatedly find success in these conditions.
Beyond performances on these comp courses, Lipsky has the ideal stat profile for Pebble Beach as well. He ranks in the top 15 in Good Drives Gained, SG: APP, Prox: 75-150, Opportunities Gained, Par-4: 350-450, and SG: ARG. That is good enough for No. 4 overall in my model this week.
Coming off a missed cut at The AmEx, this sets up to be an ideal bounce back spot for Lipsky. He also looks to improve on the T24 finish in his 2022 debut. He has two wins since 2019 (Korn Ferry Tour, DP World Tour) and Pebble Beach is a favorable set up for Lipsky to chase his first career PGA TOUR win.
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR AT THE 2023 AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM
I’ve always looked forward to Pebble Beach ever since watching Gary Woodland’s 2019 U.S. Open victory. That surprise longshot win has continued to align with the outcomes in store at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The combination of rotating courses, uncertain weather, limited ShotLink data, and Pro-Am format tends to breed unpredictability.
However, there’s far more bite to these courses than what we saw most recently at The AmEx’ rotating Pro-Am. This is still a week I’m going to trust the model and hone in on elite wedge players with proven performance in similar conditions.
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the player pool below. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds, as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for Draft Kings:
For my model in Fantasy National this week, I’m prioritizing:
- SG: APP
- Comp Course History
- Prox: 100-125
- Good Drives Gained
- SG: TOT (Short + Windy Courses)
- Opportunities Gained
I’m taking a secondary balance of SG: P (TOT + Poa), SG: TOT (2023 Season), and SG: ARG to help navigate Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds.
Ben Griffin emerged in the No. 1 slot in the model. He’s not the name I expected to see. However, a hot start to his rookie campaign with seven top-30 finishes will do that. Griffin has shown to play at his best on shorter, wedge-heavy courses that comp well to Pebble Beach. After fizzling down the stretch at the Bermuda Championship, it will be interesting to see if he has what it takes to win a PGA TOUR event his rookie season. However, he’s a very live placement consideration this week.
After Griffin, my model’s top 10 rounds out with: Tom Hoge, Matt Kuchar, David Lipsky, Greyson Sigg, Mark Hubbard, Matthew NeSmith, Brendon Todd, Alex Smalley, and Russell Knox.
Viktor Hovland is the first name I’ll be looking for when odds open on Monday. But with such a weak field, I’m not optimistic there will be much value in his number. I expect to start my card with at least one of Hovland, Tom Hoge, Seamus Power, or Jordan Spieth from the top of the board, with David Lipsky, Matt Kuchar, and Alex Smalley in consideration at longer odds.
Thanks for reading, and good luck navigating 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds!