2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview: Everything You Need To Know About Pebble Beach
It’s another week of golf action on the PGA TOUR. The next stop is the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Compare AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA TOUR golf betting payouts. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Patrick Cantlay project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.
The least predictable PGA TOUR season in recent memory continues its California Swing. An elite field of the TOUR’s best make its way up to Monterrey for the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Parity is at its peak with a Murderers Row of Chris Kirk, Grayson Murray, Nick Dunlap, and Matthieu Pavon taking down the first four tournaments of the year, each beyond triple-digit odds pre-tournament. Will we see a return to normalcy in this elite and compact Signature Event field?
Pebble Beach is one of my favorite courses in the world to watch, and I’ve been glued to my TV screen at this event recently. I cashed in on outright bets on Gary Woodland in 2019 (U.S. Open), Daniel Berger in in 2021, and Tom Hoge in 2022. This event has long rewarded strategic course management and elite approach proximity from within 150 yards. With the modifications that come with new Signature Event status, we’ll dive into the stats that will remain predictive for success at Pebble Beach, as well as new areas to find value.
Here’s a look at everything you can expect at the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Click on odds anywhere to bet now.
2024 OPENING AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am ODDS: THE FAVORITES
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A New Look for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
A staple on the PGA TOUR since 1937, there are several notable changes in store in 2024.
For starters, it’s been deservedly tapped as the second of eight Signature Events in the new season. As a Signature Event, the field will be limited to 90 (down from the historical full field of 156) and will be a no-cut event. The event remains a Pro-Am, but amateurs will only play alongside the pros for the first two rounds.
Previously a three-course rotation, Monterrey Peninsula will not be in the mix in 2024. Instead, players will alternate between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill for the first two days, setting the stage for Saturday and Sunday action at Pebble Beach.
Of note, there are six players in the field who rank top-30 in SG: TOT on both Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill but below-average on Monterrey Peninsula: Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Seamus Power, Wyndham Clark, and Matt Kuchar. These players stand to see a slight boost from past performance, with Monterrey Peninsula removed from the rotation in 2024. Conversely, Andrew Putnam, Adam Svensson, Eric Cole, Kurt Kitayama, and Lucas Glover are potential sell-high candidates with great history on Monterrey Peninsula and lesser performance on Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill.
THE FIELD AT A GLANCE
The Sentry kicked off 2024 as the first Signature Event of the new season; the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is the second of eight on the schedule. As a Signature Event, the purse is heightened to $20M, there is no cut, and the field is reduced to just 80 players. Criteria to qualify for the field in a Signature Event require one of the following:
- Top-50 in 2023 FedExCup Points (reached the BMW Championship)
- No. 51-60 FedExCup Points via FedExCup Fall performance
- Aon Swing 5: Top-5 FedEx Cup point earners since the previous Signature Event (The Sentry)
- 2024 Winners
- Top-30 OWGR
- 5 Sponsors Exemptions
It can be a bit confusing to track who is and is not qualified in the early days of Signature Events, but in short, all the best players on the PGA TOUR are here. From an OWGR standpoint, nine of the top-10 players in the world will be teeing it up at Pebble Beach, with Jon Rahm the only elite talent missing. This is a welcomed sight for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which has long produced one of the weakest fields of the season when going head-to-head with the Saudi International. That opens the door for players like Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Tony Finau, who recently skipped this event in favor of Saudi International.
Of note, Tyrrell Hatton is currently listed in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am field amidst the rumors that he will be joining LIV.
Justin Rose is back to defend his title his 2023 title, sustaining weather delays for a Monday finish. Other past winners of this event returning to the field this week include Tom Hoge, Nick Taylor, and Jordan Spieth.
INTRODUCTION TO THE TWO-COURSE ROTATION
It’s the third week in a row we’ll be navigating a multi-course rotation. Mercifully, this will be the last rotating course set-up we see this season. Variety is fine, but cycling through multiple courses means fewer Strokes. Gained data and an added variable of the field not playing the same courses under the same daily conditions.
Pebble Beach is one of my favorites and one of the most iconic, picturesque courses in the United States. This year, we’re blessed to see a third round on the infamous course, but historically, we have only been able to glean insights from two rounds per tournament at this event, as Pebble Beach is the only course in rotation equipped with ShotLink. That will be used as the basis of this week’s Strokes Gained research.
Similar to the Farmers Insurance Open last week, players will rotate between two courses – Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill – over the first two days, then play Pebble Beach on Saturday and Sunday.
Unlike the last Pro-Am we saw at The AmEx, there is some bite to these courses. Pro-Ams are typically designed not to kill the amateurs. The Poa greens will roll on the slower side, and rough will not be grown to its limits with the amateurs in mind. However, we’ve seen modest winning scores in the mid-teens year in and year out at this event. The exposure to high coastal winds is mostly to thank for keeping the scoring in check, but despite all three courses playing under 7,100 yards, they each present their own challenges.
Pebble Beach features some of the smallest greens we see on TOUR all season at just 3,500 square feet in average green size. This puts an emphasis on playing from the fairway and dialing in approach shots. It also yields one of the lowest Greens In Regulation percentages on TOUR, making SG: Around The Green a key stat for this week.
Due to the angular hole layouts, Pebble Beach concedes the shortest average driving distance on TOUR. That forces layups on many holes off the tee and almost completely removes any advantage for longer hitters. The average driving distance at Pebble Beach has fallen around 274 yards (well below the TOUR average of 290 yards) to illustrate the persistence of forced layups here.
The historical scoring average is 0.9 strokes over par. Depending on how much the winds decide to pick up, this course can really pose a challenge to the field despite the short length of the scorecard. The top 10 players in terms of SG: TOT at Pebble Beach are Maverick McNealy, Xander Schauffele, Matthew NeSmith, Jason Day, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Taylor Moore, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Viktor Hovland.
Spyglass Hill poses a bit more of a challenge. Five holes are exposed to the coast, but otherwise, it is tree-lined to help protect itself from the elements. When winds are up, Spyglass has historically played as the most difficult course at this event; when winds are down, it plays slightly easier than Pebble Beach. Slightly longer than Pebble Beach at 7,035 yards, this Par-72 features four Par 4s under 400 yards where players will need to capitalize. The scoring average here has played to about 0.5 strokes over par.
Similar to what we saw most recently at Torrey Pines last week– as well as other coastal layouts like Port Royal and Waialae CC– these grounds are very exposed to the coastline and will be highly susceptible to coastal winds. It will be key to keep an eye out for weather reports throughout the week to see if there is an advantage for any of the course rotation waves or AM/PM tee time splits.
The top 10 players in terms of SG: TOT at Spyglass Hill are Justin Rose, Beau Hossler, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Denny McCarthy, Patrick Cantlay, Nick Taylor, Sahith Theegala, Seamus Power, and Tom Hoge. Top iron players who can confidently flight approaches into varying coastal winds have found the most success at Spyglass Hill. That correlates similarly with the list of players who have found success at Pebble Beach as well. This furthers the point that putting specialists who are inconsistent ball-strikers have been exposed on Spyglass Hill when it plays difficult.
For Pebble Beach course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds page.
EVENT HISTORY & COMP COURSES
There is a decorated group of players who come to this Signature Event with great track records at Pebble Beach. Jason Day – though coming off of a disappointing missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open last week – boasts the most consistent resume here. In 15 career appearances, he has still never missed the cut (a streak guaranteed to continue after this week as well), and has stockpiled nine top-10 finishes.
Removing Monterrey Peninsula, the top 10 players in this field in terms of total strokes gained at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am after Day are: Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Maverick McNealy, Denny McCarthy, Xander Schauffele, Beau Hossler, Matthew NeSmith, and Nick Taylor.
Twelve players have posted multiple T15 finishes over the last five years. That list includes: Nick Taylor, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Maverick McNealy, Max Homa, Tom Hoge, Beau Hossler, Denny McCarthy, Seamus Power, Keith Mitchell, and Peter Malnati.
Just nine players have avoided missing the cut here over the last five years (min. three appearances): Nick Taylor, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Maverick McNealy, Max Homa, Matthew NeSmith, Cam Davis, and Wyndham Clark.
It’s not the easiest week to hone in on Comp Courses. The courses share sub-7,200 yardage and exposure to the coastline, which is susceptible to high winds. In general, Short Course History appears to be translatable here. The top 10 players SG: TOT (<7,200 Yards) are Eric Cole, Russell Henley, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Brian Harman, Keegan Bradley, and JT Poston. All are sensible fits with proven prior results at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
It’s tricky factoring performance in high winds into any modeling, given that gusting winds do not affect all players the same. Honing in on SG: TOT across Short, Coastal, and Windy courses, the top 10 are: Webb Simpson, Alex Noren, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, Harris English, Adam Scott, Jason Day, Brendon Todd, and Rickie Fowler.
Looking at specific comp courses, Colonial CC looks to be the best one in terms of corollary success. Like the courses on tap this week, Colonial is short and rewards accurate, positional play off the tee, and can be played in high sustained winds. That places more of an emphasis on around-the-green play. Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, and Phil Mickelson have each won at both events.
I also like Waialae CC, Port Royal, Sea Island, Harbour Town, Liberty National, and El Camaleon as recent short, windy, and coastal tracks. TPC River Highlands, Stadium Course, and Sedgefield CC place a similar emphasis on positional play, while Riviera CC is worth a reference for similar Poa greens.
The top 10 players in SG: TOT at these comp courses are Russell Henley, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth, and Brian Harman.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER FOR 2024 AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM ODDS
- SG: APP
- Good Drives Gained / Driving Accuracy
- SG: ARG
- Prox: 75-150 (100-125 emphasis)
- Par-4: 350-450
- Opportunities Gained
- SG: TOT (<7,200 Yard Courses)
- SG: P (Poa)
- Course & Comp Course History
Off The Tee
You don’t have to be a fairway-finding specialist to put yourself in position off the tee this week. Many players who may normally reach back for extra distance at the expense of hitting more fairways will be forced to keep their driver in the bag on these courses. With that in mind, Driving Accuracy may be a bit of a misleading stat to weigh heavily this week, knowing that players will be looking to lay up more often.
This week is setting up as more of a second-shot course. I like the Good Drives Gained stat in place of the usual SG: OTT, Driving Distance, or Driving Accuracy stats, as it also incorporates approach play. Players who get themselves into position to reach greens in regulation should create the most scoring opportunities at this event. The top 10 players in Good Drives Gained are: Scottie Scheffler, JJ Spaun, Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Andrew Putnam, Patrick Cantlay, Lucas Glover, Aaron Rai, and Brandon Todd.
Strokes Gained: Approach is crucial every week on TOUR, but at a second shot course like Pebble Beach, which features some of the smallest greens we see all year, it’s even more paramount. The top 10 players SG: APP entering this week are: Scottie Scheffler, Lucas Glover, Collin Morikawa, Alex Smalley, Xander Schauffele, Sam Ryder, Hideki Matsuyama, Chris Kirk, Viktor Hovland, and Aaron Rai.
Looking at the distribution of approach shots historically at Pebble Beach, they largely funnel below 150 yards, with an emphasis on 100-125. It’s difficult to rely on Proximity in 25-yard increments, so I’m looking for players who excel from 75-150 yards. The top 10 from that group are: Hideki Matsuyama, Chris Kirk, Collin Morikawa, Russell Henley, Scottie Scheffler, Lucas Glover, Brendon Todd, Adam Hadwin, Nick Taylor, and Sam Ryder.
Par-4 Hole Range
The hole ranges are fairly evenly distributed between the three courses, but 40% fall between 350-450 yards. The top 10 in Par-4 Scoring from this range are: Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott, Russell Henley, Lucas Glover, JT Poston, Camilo Villegas, Collin Morikawa, Eric Cole, Justin Thomas, and Beau Hossler.
With only half of the rounds historically being played on Pebble Beach at this event, it’s difficult to draw any conclusive trends from past SG: TOT correlations. What we do know in looking through the list of players with top event history is that stats like Good Drives Gained, SG: APP, Comp Short Course History, SG: ARG, SG: P (Poa), Par-4: 350-450, and Prox: 75-150 should serve as reliable indicators of success. Seven players rate out above-average in each of those categories: Eric Cole, Xander Schauffele, JT Poston, Brendon Todd, Adam Scott, Max Homa, and Adam Hadwin.
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Hideki matsuyama
As the best players in the world congregate for one of the weakest fields on TOUR, there’s some shock value when sifting through contenders. A short and coastal course should devalue the elite skillsets of stars like Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. In recent years, this venue crowned players like Tom Hoge, Ted Potter Jr., and Vaughn Taylor. That suggests top short-iron approach trumps elite skillsets that players at short odds typically rely on.
Many types of players in this field of 80 can win at Pebble Beach. From a value standpoint, I’m not paying premium odds on the favorites when elite approach prowess can still be found further down the board.
In the case of Hideki Matsuyama, we have a recent Major champion who has a great track record in California. He excels with mid-irons, showed a fit for this course, and is in great form after a top-five tee-to-green showing at The Farmers Insurance Open. Matsuyama is one of the most criminally undervalued players on the PGA TOUR, so we can bank on seeing discounted odds come Monday.
Matsuyama remains elite from short yardage, ranking top-10 in Prox: 75-100 and Prox: 100-125. He also ranks top-seven in both SG: APP and SG: ARG. With Pebble Beach featuring some of the smallest greens on TOUR, we see heightened importance of Approach and Around-The-Green. His most recent win came at the Sony Open, which compares well to Pebble Beach. While putting is always a concern for Matsuyama, Poa proves to be his most favorable surface. He gained 1.7 strokes putting in his only appearance at Pebble Beach, finishing T21 at the 2019 U.S. Open.
Matsuyama will be a fixture on my betting card at 50-1 odds or longer.
2024 AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM: DFS PLAYER POOL
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and rankings projections for Underdog Fantasy, with odds and pricing released earlier this week.
UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS
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MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN
For my model in Fantasy National this week, I’m prioritizing SG: APP, Course & Comp Course History, Prox: 100-125, Good Drives Gained, SG: TOT (Short and Windy Courses), and Opportunities Gained, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: P (TOT + Poa), SG: TOT (2023 Season), and SG: ARG to help navigate Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds.
In the most top-heavy field we’ve seen so far in 2024, it’s no surprise to see Scottie Scheffler back in the No. 1 position in my model, followed closely behind by Rory McIlroy at No. 2. World No. 1 & 2, respectively, neither players seems capable of losing strokes from tee-to-green at this stage of the season. IF there is hope for the field, however, Pebble Beach is a course that rewards experience and devalues elite driving skills. Scheffler missed the cut at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach and will make his AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am debut this week. McIlroy has played this event just once before, missing the cut in 2018.
After Scheffler and McIlroy, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Russell Henley, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, JT Poston, Patrick Cantlay, Eric Cole, and Adam Scott.
When AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds are released Monday, I’ll look to have exposure to multiple favorites at the top of the betting board, prioritizing those with strong course history who have made a habit of returning to Monterrey year over year. I have my eye on Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, and Max Homa at the top of the board, but will keep a close eye on where the odds drop.
Thanks for reading, and good luck navigating 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds!
Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tee Times
The PGA TOUR typically releases tee times 24-48 hours before the start of Round 1. This section will be updated once they are available.
2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds
Browse AT&T Pebble Peach Pro-Am Odds below when sportsbooks release them Monday.