My 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Card And Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on May 11, 2022
at&t byron nelson bets

Like plenty others in this community, I am in the midst of an unfortunate trend of four outright runner-ups in the last five events. On the one hand, you could say I’m hot for having someone in the mix each week. On the other hand, you could say I’m cold for converting $0 out of each of those outright bets. In any case, I’m prepared to spend a lot of my hard earned money on PGA Championship bets next week, so it would be nice to finally convert one this week and carry a little momentum. Below, you’ll find all the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson bets I’ve placed.

Overall, this sets up to be your prototypical birdie fest, the antithesis of Major conditions, yet we still have an entertaining field that features seven of the top-15 OWGR players. That’s helped inflate the odds of longshots further down the board who I expect to find the most success this week, without concerns of looking ahead to next week’s festivities.

Click on the golf odds below if you’d like to add my 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson bets as well.

HOW I BUILT MY AT&T BYRON NELSON BETS

Any time we find ourselves at one of the birdiefests on the PGA TOUR, there’s a good chance I’m going to allocate my units across a longer card. There just isn’t a significant edge to be had by the elite players at the top of the board when the barrier to reaching greens in regulation is diminished; it simply comes down to a putting contest, where the difference between the 10th best and 100th best player in the field is mitigated. In the end, I looked to identify birdie makers with the ability to go low in easy scoring conditions and capitalize on the reachable par-5s with plus driving distance.

In terms of unit allocation, it’s business as usual for outrights (3U in to pay 24U each), props (3U in to pay out 3U+ each) and FRL (0.5U in to pay out 10U+).

More PGA TOUR Coverage: Tyler Duke’s Byron Nelson Power Rankings

AT&T BYRON NELSON BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Sam Burns

My Bet: +2200

Best Odds Still Available:

Sam Burns has shown us he can find repeated success at courses that fit his eye, so the runner-up finish at this event last year is an encouraging sign of things to come at TPC Craig Ranch. We’ve already seen him win back to back at the Valspar, he posted a T5 at the Sanderson Farms prior to his 2021 victory, and he’s finished T5 in each of his first two Zurich Classic appearances. This course fits Burns game of long drives, elite irons, and streaky putting perfectly, and he should generate ample birdie opportunities to stay in the mix through Sunday.

Talor Gooch

My Bet: +5000

Best Odds Still Available:

Talor Gooch is familiar with the terrain this week growing up just up the road in Oklahoma, so he’ll make himself comfortable for the next few weeks between this event, the PGA Championship, and the Charles Schwab Challenge. As Gooch showed us in his dominant RSM Classic victory, he’s at his best when conditions ask the field for more flighted approaches through the wind, and if this course is going to present any challenges, the wind will be the reason. Gooch ranks no. 1 in the field this week in SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), so even if the wind stays down, the course will still suit him well.

Maverick McNealy

My Bet: +6600

Best Odds Still Available:

McNealy’s strengths are in Par-5 Scoring (no. 2) and Birdies or Better Gained (no. 3), which should set him up perfectly to feast on this week’s easy conditions and four reachable Par-5s. He also happens to rank 15th in SG: TOT at Texas Courses, with four T20s at the Houston Open and Charles Schwab Challenge over the last three years.

Marc Leishman

My Bet: +7000

Best Odds Still Available:

This is a value bet on Leishman who is simply too good of a player to be priced behind the likes of Aaron Wise, Seamus Power, and Adam Hadwin. Leishman’s Wells Fargo Championship was derailed by one horrid shank out of the bunker, but the irons are still trending under the radar. He’s gained 7 strokes on approach over his last two starts and actually finished 6th in The Masters field in terms of SG: T2G, so the game is still looking sharp despite the lackluster recent results. A return to easy scoring conditions and wide open fairways should be a welcomed sight for the Aussie this week.

Keith Mitchell

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

Our first triple-digit choice among Byron Nelson bets in Killa Keith. I’ll always be tempted to play Keith Mitchell in easy scoring conditions that favor the longest hitters in the field. We’d ideally like to back him on Bermuda greens, but I won’t think twice about betting Keith Mitchell at triple digit odds as he enters with four T15s in his last six events. The last time we saw Keith Mitchell on a wide-open birdie fest on Bent greens was the CJ Cup, where he nearly coasted to victory before being chased down by Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa.

Ryan Palmer

My Bet: +12500

Best Odds Still Available:

Ryan Palmer is a narrative play as my card was looking a little short on local Texans. This is not a course you need to have familiarity with to navigate around, but regardless, Palmer has arguably the most experience of anyone in this field at TPC Craig Ranch, owning the course record at 61. His ball striking form is in a fine place at the moment, and he’s always been at his best on longer, second shot courses that favor plus-driving distance. If the course familiarity translates to an ability to read these greens properly and make some putts, Palmer could conceivably make a run with the home crowd behind him.

Kurt Kitayama

My Bet: +15000

Best Odds Still Available:

Anyone who found success two weeks ago at the Mexico Open should conceivably be able to tap into the same skillsets for a repeated performance at TPC Craig Ranch. Here, Kitayama will be able to rely on his driving distance, trending irons, and streaky putter to continue to capitalize on easy scoring conditions. He’s top-10 in driving distance and no. 1 SG: APP L8 rounds, so if he can rinse and repeat those stats once more this week, he’ll have himself plenty of scoring opportunities.

Brandon Wu

My Bet: +20000

Best Odds Still Available:

I truthfully knew nothing about Brandon Wu until he bombarded Vidanta Vallarta, setting the course record on Sunday and nearly chasing down Jon Rahm to force a playoff. With that performance, he quickly proved that he can take advantage of a long, easy golf course and go low with a string of birdie streaks. That alone is worth a gamble at 200-1 odds, but the Mexico Open was not simply a flash in the pan. Wu also finished T3 at the Puerto Rico Open, which I believe to be the top overall comp course to TPC Craig Ranch, and has four T35 finishes over his last five starts.

Hudson Swafford

My Bet: +25000

Best Odds Still Available:

One last dart throw to round out the card, Hudson Swafford is everything you want to see on paper to capitalize on a long, second shot course with easy scoring conditions, with the added bonus of solid win equity after closing out the 2022 American Express in similar easy conditions. Swafford is top-20 in the trifecta of SG: APP, Par-5 Scoring, and Birdies or Better Gained, all pointing to a high ceiling from an outright bomb perspective.

FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Keith Mitchell

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

It bears repeating that the 2022 CJ Cup at The Summit Club was the last time we saw Keith Mitchell on a long, open, second shot birdie fest on Bentgrass greens. At that event, he opened with a scorching 62-64 start, so there’s no doubt he has the ability to go low in these very same conditions, especially considering the hot current form.

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +8500

Best Odds Still Available:

Sebastian Munoz is back home, just a stone’s throw away from the University of North Texas Mean Green campus where he played in college. He should know this course well, and has historically putted best on Bentgrass greens.

Matthew Wolff

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

Why not? Matthew Wolff is nothing if not streaky, and he finally showed signs of life again in tougher conditions at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship. I’m still not sold he’s all the way back yet, but Wolff has thrived in birdie fests and has the distance to create birdie opportunities left and right at TPC Craig Ranch.

Patrick Rodgers

My Bet: +11000

Best Odds Still Available:

I will play Patrick Rodgers first round leader every single time he tees up at a long, easy course north of 100-1 odds. He showed some signals at the Mexico Open last we saw him, and while it’s still hard to trust he’ll put four rounds together, a hot start on Thursday isn’t much to ask.

Adam Schenk

My Bet: +16000

Best Odds Still Available:

Adam Schenk is supposed to only play well in easy scoring conditions. When comparing baseline Birdie or Better stats to BoB Gained in Easy Scoring Conditions, Schenk’s name climbed to the very top of the list in terms of splits, jumping from 115th to 14th overall. And despite that preference to birdie fests, he still managed to post one of his best results of the season in arguably the most difficult conditions we’ve seen in 2022, when he finished T9 at the Wells Fargo Championship. A continuation on Bentgrass greens with a return to easy scoring conditions sounds like a perfect recipe for Schenk to go low on Thursday.

Hayden Buckley

My Bet: +20000

Best Odds Still Available:

Close after Adam Schenk in the BoB Gained on Easy Course splits charts is Hayden Buckley, who climbed from 114th to 27th in BoB Gained in Easy Scoring Conditions. He was a force to be reckoned with in the Fall Swing, so this is a dart throw on a player who has shown the upside to post a low number.

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PROPS (3 UNITS)

Top-30 Finish: Maverick McNealy

My Bet: +160

Best Odds Still Available:

McNealy has been a placing machine in 2022, making it through the cut now in twelve consecutive events. Over that stretch, he’s finished top-30 seven times, so he’s more likely than not to cash this prop based on that lookback window alone. I love the course fit for Mav, who peaked at the 2022 Fortinet Championship in similar long, easy conditions, ultimately finishing runner-up to Max Homa.

Top-20 Finish: Marc Leishman

My Bet: +250

Best Odds Still Available:

Marc Leishman has some sneaky Texas history, which is due in part to his comfortability flighting golf shots through the wind. At the Byron Nelson in particular, he has three career T3 finishes and four total finishes inside the top-20. I don’t think his odds drift this far down the board is justified, and am happy to take a shot on the value.

Top-40 Finish: Adam Schenk

My Bet: +400

Best Odds Still Available:

I don’t trust Adam Schenk very much at all, but I don’t think a T40 is asking too much of a player who has three T10 finishes in 2022, including in his previous start. Schenk also thrives on Bentgrass greens, and when the scoring is at its easiest. This is not a comfortable bet, but the price is appealing for the upside he’s shown this season.

Top-20 Finish: Hudson Swafford

My Bet: +750

Best Odds Still Available:

Hudson Swafford is your prototypical boom or bust player, but we can at least take solace in the fact that the irons have looked consistent, gaining 10 strokes on approach over his last three events. The odds are long for a top-20, but I like him at TPC Craig Ranch for all the same reasons one would have liked him at The American Express, so I’ll take my chances and roll the dice.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Sam Burns

Cameron Young got us back on track in OAD last week with his T2 finish, so now that we’re off life support, we’re back swinging for the fences with the third-favorite in this event, Sam Burns. Any way you slice it, this is a Sam Burns course. It’s long and open, you need to gain 5+ strokes with your irons to separate from the field, and you need to be able to make enough birdies to push beyond -20. Burns did plenty to win in 2021, unfortunately you just can’t play defense when another play has a career week. Maybe he carries a chip on his shoulder and uses it as motivation to claim the one that got away.

If not Burns, I would also consider Talor Gooch, Maverick McNealy, and Jordan Spieth. I don’t even think it’s insane to play Kurt Kitayama here if you’re looking to get weird – he’ll never be in a better position to play well than this week’s combination of current form and course profile fit.

THE BETTING CARD: AT&T BYRON NELSON BETS

That’ll do it for AT&T Byron Nelson bets. Best of luck this week, and see you on Sunday for the 2022 PGA Championship Preview!

John Haslbauer Avatar
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John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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