The only thing standing between us and the second major championship of the year is the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. That makes it a little bit harder to get excited about the action in store with many of the game’s best either skipping entirely or withdrawing throughout tournament week. In any case, these odds pay out the same as any other week on the PGA TOUR season for us golf bettors, and it serves as a good opportunity to build up the bankroll before PGA Championship week. Let’s get to AT&T Byron Nelson bets.
We should expect birdies in masses this week. Winning scores pushed well beyond 20-under par in each of the first two contests at TPC Craig Ranch. That creates plenty of opportunity to exploit value on birdie-makers who may have peaked in the easier Fall Swing leg of the PGA TOUR schedule earlier this season. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place AT&T Byron Nelson bets.
For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my AT&T Byron Nelson preview.
HOW I BUILT MY AT&T BYRON NELSON BETTING CARD
Truthfully, I built my outright card in a span of about 10 minutes, immediately jumping on the value created by Jordan Spieth’s Monday withdrawal before sportsbooks had adjusted. But all along, my approach in these types of putting contest weeks has been to target those proven in easy scoring conditions who can peak with both long irons and putting.
In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, it’s back to business as usual for AT&T Byron Nelson bets.
- Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
- FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
- Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each
Click on any of the odds below for AT&T Byron Nelson bets and the best available prices across legal sportsbooks in your state.
AT&T BYRON NELSON BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)
Tyrrell Hatton
My Bet: +1800
Best Available Odds:
Any time one of the prohibitive favorites is a late withdrawal, it’s an opportunity to pounce on some closing line value before markets readjust. That was the case this week for Hatton, who’s fallen to 12-1 consensus odds after Jordan Spieth pulled out with a wrist injury Monday afternoon. After Scottie Scheffler, Hatton carries the fewest question marks about his game entering this week. He has consistently gained across all four SG categories over his last five, 10, 20, and 100 events. His game travels regardless of the scoring conditions.
With four top-six finishes since the WM Phoenix Open, Hatton is too talented a player to still be winless on the PGA TOUR post-COVID, and this field offers little resistance for him to get over that hump.
Hideki Matsuyama
My Bet: +2800
Best Available Odds:
If there were no questions about Matsuyama’s health and we took his previous four finishes of fifth, T31, T15, and T16 at face value, then Matsuyama would likely be available at half of these odds. Unfortunately, Matsuyama bettors must naturally accept that a WD can come at any moment as he continues to battle a lingering neck injury. That’s the beauty of the outright market, however, as we are betting on a ceiling performance, and we know him to be a threat whenever he’s able to get four rounds in. A T3 finisher at last year’s AT&T Byron Nelson, I believe Matsuyama would not make the trip here the week before the PGA Championship unless he believed he was healthy enough to contend.
Taylor Montgomery
My Bet: +5500
Best Available Odds:
Taylor Montgomery is the type of player I am going to blindly stake my confidence in whenever we get to a long, driver-heavy, putting contest track, regardless of immediate form. His approach play has been a glaring weakness this rookie season, but that’s not as detrimental when considering he’s just as likely to convert 20-footers as many in the field are to convert from half that distance. Montgomery has not played in a pure birdie-fest since his T5 at the AmEx, so this may be the perfect set up to return to the blazing form with which he kickstarted the 2023 season.
Sam Stevens
My Bet: +9000
Best Available Odds:
I love the way TPC Craig Ranch sets up for Stevens’ game. He already picked up four top-15 finishes on comparable long, wind-exposed courses since January between the Farmers Insurance Open, Puerto Rico Open, Corales Puntacana Championship, and Valero Texas Open. That stretch includes two top-three finishes over his last four starts. Born in Fort Worth, he should be familiar with these playing conditions despite making his AT&T Byron Nelson debut.
Nate Lashley
My Bet: +15000
Best Available Odds:
Nate Lashley has been a stalwart on courses that fit this profile of long, generous off-the-tee, and easy overall scoring. Of his 24 career top-20 finishes, a staggering 18 have come on courses I have marked as comparable to TPC Craig Ranch, fitting that same profile. That includes top-10 finishes in all three of his Puerto Rico Open appearances, which I believe to be the top comp course to the conditions we’ll see this week. With three consecutive top-40 finishes, Lashley remains in solid form to contend amongst this weaker field.
AT&T BYRON NELSON FIRST-ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNITS)
Min Woo Lee
My Bet: +5000
Best Available Odds:
Min Woo Lee lost a toss up with Taylor Montgomery to make my outright betting card, but he remains an ideal fit for this set up with his length off the tee. Drawing a favorable morning tee time, I won’t be surprised to see him get off to a hot start on Thursday.
Aaron Rai
My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:
This week marks the one-year anniversary of Sebastian Munoz’s last FRL on the PGA TOUR, blazing to a 12-under 60 start. It would only be poetic justice for his official stand-in to get out to set the pace here in 2023.
Adam Schenk
My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:
I’m going right back to Schenk on my FRL card after a mediocre showing at the Wells Fargo Championship last week. The set up at TPC Craig Ranch should continue to play to his strengths of Driving Distance and putting.
Mackenzie Hughes
My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:
Hughes’ season started with plenty of promise after winning the Sanderson Farms in October. He’s finished T16 and T5 in his last two trips to Texas, so those positive vibes combined with his elite putting upside set the foundation for a hot start on Thursday.
Nate Lashley
My Bet: +9000
Best Available Odds:
I love the course fit for Lashley, as he continues to trend upward after a career-best 6.6 strokes gained on approach at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship. He should be be able to keep the ball in play on these generous fairways, and if so, he’ll be able to generate ample birdie looks.
AT&T BYRON NELSON PROPS (3 UNITS)
Top-40 Finish: Nate Lashley
My Bet: +175
Best Available Odds:
I’ve never written this much about Nate Lashley in a week before. But, he’s checking all of the boxes I’m looking for in a profile fit for TPC Craig Ranch. He finished T17 in his TPC Craig Ranch debut last year, enters in solid form with three consecutive top-40 finishes, and profiles well for this long, windy, and easy-scoring setup, ranking No. 19 in Comp Course History.
Top-20 Finish: Davis Riley
My Bet: +180
Best Available Odds:
Purely following the numbers, this felt like a mis-price for a player who ranked No. 5 overall in my model. That’s especially encouraging considering there is no data pulled from his first career PGA TOUR win two starts ago at the Zurich Classic team event. He’s been a hit or miss player, but a T9 here last year and three top-20 finishes over his last six starts is an encouraging sign for another high finish.
Top-20 Finish: Sam Stevens
My Bet: +260
Best Available Odds:
For all the reasons I love Stevens as an outright bet, I’m doubling down in the placement market. He ranks top 25 in Birdies or Better Gained, Par-5 Scoring, and Driving Distance and has looked poised so far this rookie season, contending down to the wire at the Corales Puntacana Championship and Valero Texas Open over his last four starts.
ONE AND DONE
My Pick: Tyrrell Hatton
It’s hard to tell how many OAD players who still have Scottie Scheffler at their disposal would opt to use him in a standard PGA TOUR event with less of a purse at stake. I don’t have the option to select Scheffler anymore, so I’ve simply gone with the next best player available in Hatton, who is unlikely to be shorter than a 12-1 favorite for the rest of the season. He’ll be a popular selection, but still a pivot from KH Lee who I expect to be the most selected this week.
If not Hatton, I would also consider KH Lee, Taylor Montgomery, or Sam Stevens as OAD picks.
AT&T BYRON NELSON: THE BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson bets. Best of luck this week with your own Byron Nelson bets, and see you on Sunday for a loaded week of PGA Championship content! For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.
AT&T BYRON NELSON BETS: ODDS TO WIN
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