Atlantic Sun Tournament Odds: Two-Horse Race Between Liberty And Jacksonville St.?

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on February 27, 2022 - Last Updated on February 28, 2022
ASUN tournament odds

The Atlantic Sun conference basketball tournament kicks off on Tuesday and one lucky team in the 12-team conference will punch a ticket to March Madness. We’ll take a look at all of the pertinent ASUN tournament info, including odds (courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook) and how you can watch.

Much like the NEC Tournament, the market says we’re looking at a two-horse race here.

ASUN Tournament Odds

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Liberty
Bet now
+130
Bet now
+115
Jacksonville State
Bet now
+170
Bet now
+170
Bellarmine
Bet now
+1000
Bet now
+850
Jacksonville
Bet now
+600
Bet now
+1000
Florida Gulf Coast
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+1600
Kennesaw St.
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+3000
Lipscomb
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+8000
Eastern Kentucky
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+8000
North Florida
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+11000
Stetson
Bet now
+10000
Bet now
+13000
Central Arkansas
Bet now
+10000
Bet now
+15000
North Alabama
Bet now
+10000
Bet now
+25000

Tournament Notes

Liberty and Jacksonville State sport the top two implied probabilities of winning the ASUN tournament, and by no small amount. Between, there’s about an 80% chance one of those two favorites walks away with the trophy and the NCAA tournament berth.

The two did meet head-to-head once during the season, with Jacksonville State winning by 10 on Liberty’s home court. Each won their respective division. Jacksonville State has the better conference record by a game and would presumably host a prospective finals matchup. The higher seed hosts every game in the ASUN tournament format.

Advanced metrics from KenPom also favor Liberty. They had both the best offense and defense in conference play and had a more difficult overall schedule compared to Jacksonville State. The only other team besides those two with a positive adjusted efficiency is Jacksonville, sitting fourth in the markets.

While the official conference website provides a bracket, it’s of only some use. The format is a little odd, calling for reseeding after the quarterfinal round. That means four three-team pods effectively comprise the first two rounds of the tournament. Here’s the makeup of said pods:

  • Jacksonville, Central Arkansas, Stetson
  • Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Eastern Kentucky
  • Bellarmine, Florida Gulf Coast, North Alabama
  • Liberty, Lipscomb, North Florida

The first team listed in every pod has the first-round bye. They play the winner of the other teams’ matchup, then the winner of that advances to the reseeded quarterfinals.

HERSH ON HOOPS: WHERE’S THE VALUE?

(Written by Eli Hershkovich)

Unlike the NEC, I’ll have any futures stock in this conference, and Jacksonville (+1200 on FanDuel Sportsbook) has the most value.

The Dolphins present the ASUN’s top-rated Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD), surrendering the 10th-lowest perimeter clip in the country in the process (28.9%). That metric may be a tad unsustainable, as they allow their fair share of open 3-pointers. Nevertheless, Jordan Mincy’s crew wouldn’t face off against No. 1 seed Liberty until the title game, making the odds even more attractive.

  • Adjusted Efficiency accounts for the estimate efficiency (points scored or allowed per 100 possessions) a team would accrue or allow against the average Division I opponent.

Look for the 6-foot-3 Kevion Nolan — one of the most underrated mid-major point guards in the country — to lead the Dolphins on run.

ASUN Tournament Schedule

  • First round: Tuesday, March 1
  • Quarterfinals: Thursday, March 3
  • Semifinals: Saturday, March 5
  • ASUN Championship: Tuesday, March 8

How To Watch

The first three rounds will all be available for viewing on the ESPN+ streaming platform. On March 8, viewers can catch the ASUN championship live on ESPN at 5 p.m. ET.

RANK
OPERATOR
BONUS
INFO
ACTION
2
UP TO $1,250
On Caesars
Up to $1,250 On Caesars
+ get 1,000 Caesars Reward Credits 
+ also get 1,000 Tier Credits 
Redeem for free bets, hotel stays, & more!
Use Promo Code: LEGALFULL
5
$1,000
No Sweat First Bet
Up to $1,000 No Sweat First Bet
Available on iOS, Android & Desktop
To Claim: Click Bet Now
7
$100
Risk Free Bet
Exclusive Offer:
$100 Risk Free Bet
Use Promo Code: BETBONUS

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

View all posts by Mo Nuwwarah