Atlantic 10 Tournament Odds: Loyola-Chicago & Sister Jean To Steal Bid As Underdogs?

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Written By Derek Wagner | Last Updated
atlantic 10 tournament odds

The Atlantic 10 tournament tips off on Tuesday in Brooklyn, where VCU looks to become the first repeat champion since Temple in 2010. To do so, it will need to rip off four wins, which makes their odds less appealing. Let’s dive into the Atlantic 10 tournament odds and see if a bet is worth placing, perhaps on March Madness fan favorites Loyola-Chicago and the Ramblers’ No. 1 fan, Sister Jean.

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Richmond Spiders

The Spiders boast one of the more fundamentally sound offenses in the A-10 thanks to their low turnover rate (second nationally), and their effective field goal percentage that ranks third in the conference. That said, they rank 77th in mid-range field goal attempts per 100 possessions, per Haslametrics, so their shot selection isn’t exactly ideal.

Where their success truly lies though is on the defensive end, where they rank 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency, holding opponents to a mere 66.1 ppg (31st in D-1). They rank 69th in near proximity field goal percentage, per Haslametrics,

The intriguing aspect with the Spiders is that they’ve already beaten the No.2 and No. 3 seeded Ramblers and Flyers this season. Should they make it to the championship game against Loyola-Chicago, Haslametrics projects a final score of 68.2- 67.6 in favor of the Ramblers. In the event they meet Dayton, Haslametrics projects a final score of 71.8- 66.1, in favor of the Flyers.

LOYOLA-CHICAGO RAMBLERS

Loyola presents the most appealing case to win the A-10, in my opinion. They rank 24th in Haslametric’s momentum metric, largely because they have won 10 of their last 11 games, including a 77-72 victory over Dayton.

They’re led by fifth-year senior Braden Norris, who helped guide the team to the Sweet 16 with victories over Georgia Tech and Illinois in 2021. The veteran guard ranks second in the conference in effective field goal percentage, third in three-point percentage, and second in assists per contest with 4.9.

Additionally, the Ramblers are an elite rebounding team, allowing opponents to collect an offensive rebound on 24.8% of their possessions (30th in D-1). Should perimeter shots fail to fall against Loyola, second-chance buckets will be hard to come by. Drew Valentine’s squad also defends inside the arc incredibly well, holding opponents to a mere 43.4% clip (4th in D-10) there. They struggle to defend without fouling, though, as they commit 19.3 fouls per contest.

They also accrue a top 80 perimeter scoring rate, largely thanks to Norris and their junior transfer from Davidson, Desmond Watson. Thus, they are the perfect mix of defense, three-point shooting, and depth that can make a run in the A-10 tournament.

DAYTON FLYeRS

The offensive juggernaut in the A-10 has somewhat lost its swagger down the stretch, losing twice in their last five games. Since point guard Javon Bennett has been sidelined with a left thumb injury in the last two games, and the Flyers’ turnover percentage has spiked to the fifth-highest in the A-10. Making matters worse is that opponents are cashing in on those misques, collecting 19 points per game off those turnovers, which ranks in the zero percentile (per CBB analytics).

Collecting a top-25 perimeter scoring rate, they open themselves up to a ton of variance, which was seen when they squared off against elite three-point defenses such as Houston, Richmond, and VCU.

Dayton already ranks 344th in the nation in bench minutes, so without Bennett in the lineup, their margin for error is razor thin in a stacked A-10 tournament. I struggle to believe this squad can win three consecutive games to win this tournament, especially with their lack of depth. DaRon Holmes, although a nightmare to defend, can only carry this team so far, especially if Koby Brea’s slips up like he did in the losses to VCU, Georga Mason, and Loyola.

FINAL THOUGHTS

As you can tell, I think the Flyers are a very vulnerable favorite. VCU provides plenty of intrigue, but since they were unable to secure the double bye by beating Dayton last Friday, I decided not to play them.

Instead, I’ll ride with the Ramblers to secure a tournament bid on Sunday afternoon. The best available price on Loyola-Chicago to win the A-10 tournament is: .

Best of luck betting on Atlantic 10 tournament odds!

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