Atlanta Braves Odds: MLB Win Totals, Projections, Possible Bets
Welcome to TheLines.com's 2024 MLB odds preview series. Here, we'll preview every team's 2024 season with a focus on MLB win totals and World Series odds. We'll evaluate each team's roster and see if there are any wagers worth considering. Today, we'll look at a team near and dear to my heart with Atlanta Braves odds.
Few teams have entered the postseason with more expectations than the Braves in 2023. They won 104 games in a dominating campaign and boasted a healthy MVP, powering one of the best-hitting lineups in baseball history. The starting pitching and bullpen both ranked among the league's best, but the team still fell flat against the Phillies once again.
Can the Braves return to the top of the mountain and erase the stink of the past two playoff no-shows?
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Braves Odds: An Overview And What The Projections Say
First, let's compare the market on Braves odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2023 wins: 104
- Market wins: /
- FanGraphs wins: 98.2
- Baseball Prospectus wins: 101
Atlanta not only steamrolled the league last year, it did so without any meaningful good fortune, with a BaseRuns record of 103-59 while playing in a division that produced a 90-win team and an 84-win team. The Braves brought the band back on offense, while the pitching staff projects to be stronger with a full season of Max Fried and the addition of Chris Sale.
Small wonder that the projections have the Braves as co-leaders in wins at worst.
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Evaluating The Braves Roster
Bats And Defense
The Braves have assembled an enviably deep collection of bats, but it all starts at the top with Ronald Acuna Jr. The NL MVP odds favorite has a projection multiple wins better than any other position player. He'll be difficult to unseat as long as he stays healthy.
Every position save possibly left field and shortstop should provide above-average production. Even there, Jarred Kelenic still has upside as a former top prospect who underperformed his batted-ball quality, and Orlando Arcia will be average even if he just matches last year's .309 xwOBA.
DH could be a question mark as well, as Marcell Ozuna has experienced a lot of fluctuations, but he tattooed the ball with a .400 xwOBA (!). Even if Ozuna has a down year, Travis d'Arnaud provides quality insurance, trading off catching and DH days with Sean Murphy.
The defense was horrible for the first half of last season before cleaning it up in the second half. Atlanta's fielding was strong the prior season. Given that the spine of the defense features gloves that are anywhere from decent to very good -- as long as Ozzie Albies' 2023 was a blip and not a major early decline -- the unit should perform acceptably.
It would be a major surprise if the Braves didn't have a top-five offense in 2024.
Pitching
The Braves are also loaded for bear on the pitching side for at least one more season, with Max Fried set for his final ride before free agency. Fried and Spencer Strider make for a pair of legitimate aces at the top of the rotation. Strider has reportedly added a curveball to help with lefties that gave him some trouble last year, while Fried's challenge will simply be staying healthy after losing most of last season to injury.
The rest of the rotation has some question marks. Charlie Morton was still a good pitcher last season, but entering his age-40 campaign, that could end at any time. Chris Sale looked good when healthy but only posted 102 IP. That continued a multi-year trend of unavailability as he last qualified for the ERA title in 2017. Bryce Elder enjoyed a fine rookie season, but his 3.81 ERA vastly outstripped his peripherals, more in the 4.5 range. Still, that will play at the back of the rotation.
Thankfully for the Braves, they have plenty of depth here as well. AJ Smith-Shawver, Huascar Ynoa, Darius Vines and Allan Winans can all make starts without embarrassing themselves, and 2023 first-rounder Hurston Waldrep is expected to be able to contribute as well.
The bullpen looks elite, with ridiculous depth. Tyler Matzek was a borderline elite performer for the Braves during the World Series run before losing two season to Tommy John. He's slated to serve as a depth arm, not even among the listed top five. Few teams will feel more comfortable with the lead.
Possible Bets On Braves Odds
Atlanta has built what I believe to be the best roster in baseball. The Dodgers are carrying all of the hype after grabbing Japanese super-duo Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They have more top-end talent with three of the top four in preseason MVP odds.
However, I like the Braves' pitching and depth more. That sort of thing will help carry a team through the regular season, and the Dodgers have some real question marks when it comes to the arms.
With Atlanta being such prohibitive favorites in futures markets and carrying a sky-high win total, the only thing that interests me is some kind of exposure to them finishing above the Dodgers. Your appetite for risk determines the best way to attack this. On the longer end, Braves to have the best record at +320 on BetMGM seems fine. A more conservative play is available at DraftKings Sportsbook with a head-to-head win market against the Dodgers, pricing the Braves at +100.
I like the former a little more, as I think the depth of the AL will make it tough for the best record to emerge from that side of MLB.
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