2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Tournament Preview: Everything You Need To Know About Bay Hill

It’s another week of golf action on the PGA TOUR. The next stop is the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Compare Arnold Palmer Invitational odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA TOUR golf betting payouts. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Viktor Hovland project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

Another week, another Signature Event! All the game’s best return to action in Orlando for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational (API) at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. That means Arnold Palmer Invitational odds include most of the best players in the world.

Scottie Scheffler’s victory in 2022 set the tone for a season of dominance from the World No. 1. He went on to capture his first Major victory at the Masters the following month. Kurt Kitayama’s surprise win last year foreshadowed a similar trend of David vs. Goliath triumphs to follow. Wyndham Clark and Brian Harman also went on to pick up surprise Major wins in 2023. What will this year’s API tell us about the season to come?

The API tests players’ all-around game and has produced a decorated list of winners with few surprises. Standing over 7,400 yards, Bay Hill forces a high volume of approaches from 200+ yards and features some of the thickest rough on TOUR. That places emphasis on distance, long irons, and Short Game around firm and fast Bermuda greens.

Over the last six years, only Kevin Chappell registered four rounds in the 60s in the same tournament. So we should expect patience from players to battle through four tough days of golf. Here is everything you can expect from Bay Hill and with 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds.

2024 OPENING ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Scroll to the bottom of this article to compare complete API outright odds. Find the favorites in Florida this week with odds shorter than 20-1 below.

THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

The API follows the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and the Genesis Invitational as the fourth Signature event of the season. With its Signature status, the purse increased to an event-high $20M. Naturally, that attracted just about every eligible player inside the OWGR top 50. Tony Finau, Ryan Fox, and Min Woo Lee are the only exceptions not making the trip to Orlando.

PGA TOUR odds this week include a nice and tight field of just 69 players, down dramatically from the 120 who teed it up here in 2023. Unfortunately, that eliminates Cinderella stories like Kitayama, but the TOUR made its intention clear that it wants its biggest events to feature its biggest stars in contention come Sunday. Notwithstanding Kitayama’s late surge, the TOUR did get its wish last year. McIlroy, Spieth, Cantlay, and Scheffler were all in the mix down the closing stretch.

Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler are in a class of their own this week. Both are past champions who enter in great form with wins over the last few months. There should be a clear gap in Arnold Palmer Invitational odds between the top three and the rest of the field this week. The next tier of Hovland, Schauffele, and Cantlay each carry question marks in terms of their recent form or win equity.

Other past winners returning this week include Kurt Kitayama and Jason Day.

INTRODUCTION TO BAY HILL

We are in the teeth of the “grinder” stretch on the PGA TOUR. For the second straight week, par will be a good score on a majority of holes. Like PGA National last week, penalties loom, with water hazards in play on nine holes. The API has caused the highest percentage of penalty strokes in three of the last four years. Unlike PGA National, however, there is a far greater penalty for missed fairways. Bay Hill features some of the lushest rough we see on the TOUR schedule.

Also similar to PGA National, heavy Florida winds factor in. In 2020, Tyrrell Hatton survived severe winds with a Sunday 74. His -4 was one stroke enough to claim the victory. In 2022, the weather took a turn for the worse over the weekend. It quickly became a scrambling contest with greens nearly impossible to reach in regulation. The median score has fallen around +5 in years where winds are up. Needless to say, it’ll be worth monitoring the forecast this week.

There’s also a steady trend of international players finding success here, suggesting an advantage for those who are comfortable in conditions more exposed to the elements. While Kitayama is American, his decorated prior history on the DP World Tour furthers a trend of players with proven performance in the elements finding success at Bay Hill.

For Bay Hill course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past API winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our Arnold Palmer odds page.

Editor’s Note

COURSE HISTORY & COURSE COMPS

There’s a long list of players who enjoyed repeat success at the API. It’s an eclectic group of bombers and short-game specialists, but none come as much of a surprise.

Looking at each of the last seven winners, it’s notable that six posted a Top-15 finish at this event prior to picking up their win. If that trend continues, then 17 players –including McIlroy, Scheffler, and Hovland, among others – fit the bill.

Rory McIlroy

Rory must have a flair for Invitationals. If there’s an event he’s proven more consistent at than the Genesis, it’s the API. Over nine career appearances, he’s never finished outside the top 30. That includes a win in 2018 and a current streak of seven consecutive top-13 finishes.

He led the first round in 2022 and posted the low round of the day in seven of the last eight API events. It’s been a slow start to 2024 by McIlroy’s standards, but he will remain a top-two favorite with Scheffler.

Others Excelling At The Arnold Palmer Invitational

After McIlroy, the rest of the top 10 in Course History include Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, Jordan Spieth, Cameron Young, Jason Day, Max Homa, Emiliano Grillo, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Corey Conners. Although that list spans drastically different profiles of players, there’s a prevailing trend of veterans who’ve proven consistent in difficult scoring conditions.

Nine players in this field delivered multiple T10 finishes over the last five years: Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Sungjae Im, Matt Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley, and Chris Kirk. A few additional players with multiple top-15 finishes over the same span include Corey Conners, Max Homa, and Cameron Young.

There’s a long list of 12 players who have avoided missing the cut over the last five years (minimum three appearances): Scheffler, McIlroy, Hovland, Homa, Bradley, Zalatoris, Kirk, Fitzpatrick, English, Im, Todd, and Fowler. That list illustrates that Course History is more sticky at Bay Hill than most other courses.

Course Comps

This is one of the rare weeks on the PGA TOUR where Course History is sticky enough to prioritize over Comp Course History. With that said, there are still plenty of signals to draw from other long and difficult comp conditions.

Quail Hollow is the best place to start. Both courses are over 7,400 yards, with an advantage to bombers. They feature thick and penal rough throughout and have firm and fast Bermuda greens. Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, and Viktor Hovland have all proven the strong correlation between both courses.

PGA National, Innisbrook Resort, and The Concession also share similar characteristics from the Florida region. Muirfield Village has offered a similarly stern test with its length, thick rough, and firm greens.

Annually one of the most difficult scoring venues on the PGA TOUR schedule, it’s always a good idea to reference recent Major results, as Scheffler foreshadowed with his 2022 victory. Oak Hill, The Country Club, Bethpage Black, Winged Foot, Torrey Pines (South), The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island, and Augusta National all serve as strong comps to simulate scoring in difficult conditions.

Wrap that all together, and the top 10 players in terms of Comp Course History are Max Homa, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris, and Tommy Fleetwood.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER FOR 2024 ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL ODDS

• Driving Distance / SG: OTT
• SG: APP
• SG: ARG
• Bogey Avoidance
• Prox: 200+
• P3: 200+
• P4: 450-500
• Par-5 Scoring
• SG: T2G (Difficult Scoring Conditions)
• SG: Putting (Bermuda / Fast Bermuda)
• Course & Comp History

What makes Bay Hill so great is the diversity of leaderboards we’ve seen here. You can’t simply cross players off from contending if they are below average in Distance, Approach, or Putting. We’ve seen Matt Every win as often as Tiger Woods since 2010. There’s no set formula to find success at Bay Hill, but prior success in demanding conditions tends to be the best indicator. The top-10 players in SG: T2G (Difficult Scoring Conditions) are Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Ludvig Åberg, Rory McIlroy, and Chris Kirk.

Bay Hill offers a high concentration of approaches from long-range. About one-third of approaches come from beyond 200 yards, and 70% come from over 150. The top players in terms of Proximity 200+ are Tom Hoge, Corey Conners, Keegan Bradley, Xander Schauffele, Cam Davis, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Taylor Moore.

Bay Hill offers a different test on second shots than we’re used to seeing. We’re going to see plenty of long iron approaches out of thick rough. They’ll often serve to bail out false fronts where players can make an “easier” up and down.

In any case, it’s still a PGA TOUR event, and SG: APP still reigns supreme. Players who excel on approach give themselves scoring opportunities on a course where those are not exactly abundant. Top players in SG: APP playing this week are: Tom Hoge, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Adam Svensson, Corey Conners, and Lucas Glover.

Short Game Emphasis

With a winning score of -12 or less in six of the last seven contests, the ability to repeatedly scramble for pars is a premium skillset to bring. There are 11 players who rank top-40 in SG: ARG, Scrambling Gained, and Bogey Avoidance: Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Sahith Theegala, Kurt Kitayama, Russell Henley, Brendon Todd, Brian Harman, Si Woo Kim, and Mackenzie Hughes.

From a putting standpoint, Bermuda specialists stand out on the Florida Swing. This course has seen success from short-game savants like Kevin Kisner, Billy Horschel, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. In a weighted model of Recent Total Putting, Bermuda Putting, Fast Green Putting, and API Putting, the top players are Taylor Moore, Eric Cole, Andrew Putnam, Rory McIlroy, Brian Harman, Emiliano Grillo, Jordan Spieth, and Justin Rose.

Piecing this together, I’m looking to hone in on players who are above average in SG: APP, Prox 200+, SG: ARG, SG: T2G (L16 Rounds), Course & Comp Course History, and Total Weighted Putting. There are just six players who fit that criteria: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Sahith Theegala, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, and Keegan Bradley.

Correlation And Bay Hill

As is normally the case when we get to a difficult golf course that tests all-around game, the markers of success at Bay Hill do not vary drastically from what it takes to succeed across all PGA TOUR courses.

The biggest jump in importance in terms of correlation with SG: TOT is SG: Short Game and SG: APP. That makes sense on a course that yields a high percentage of missed greens in regulation.

SG: P (20-25 ft), P3: 200+, and Driving Distance also saw notable increases in importance compared to TOUR average.

As for stats to avoid, Prox 75-125 and Sand Saves Gained saw the biggest drop in importance.

Just six players rate out above average in each of the above top-10 stat categories for Bay Hill: Rory McIlroy, Sungjae Im, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day, and Will Zalatoris.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Harris English

Like many other passionate golf bettors, I wasn’t thrilled with the TOUR’s decision to reduce its biggest event of the year to a limited field with no cuts. Smaller and more concentrated fields take away the betting value on potential longshots, which is the thrill we chase. Looking ahead, there aren’t many players who jump out to me, but Harris English checks all the boxes I’m looking for.

There’s a strong correlation among past prior success at the API; six of the last seven winners posted a top-15 finish prior to winning. In English’s case, he did so twice in the last three years, including a runner-up finish last year.

It’s taken some time for English to return to form post-injury, but he seems to have finally gotten his game back on par. In 2021, arguably his best year, he won twice (The Sentry, The Travelers). Through six starts in 2024, English already picked up four top-20s, including a season-best T7 at the Genesis Invitational.

English plays his best golf in difficult conditions. In addition to his great history at Bay Hill, he’s managed to finish in the top 10 in three of the last four U.S. Opens. Difficult conditions combined with Bermuda greens are an ideal recipe for the Georgia native. In a field that includes virtually every top-50 player on the PGA TOUR, he’s a prime target to slip down the betting board despite his hot form and decorated course history.

2024 ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and rankings projections for Underdog Fantasy, with odds and pricing released earlier this week.

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS

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Tier 1

Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy

Tier 2

Matt Fitzpatrick
Xander Schauffele
Max Homa
Ludvig Aberg
Cameron Young
Sam Burns

Tier 3

Sahith Theegala
Chris Kirk
Keegan Bradley
Corey Conners

Tier 4

Adam Scott
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Harris English
Sepp Straka

Tier 5

Taylor Moore
Mark Hubbard

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ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

For my BTN model this week, I’m prioritizing SG: APP, SG: ARG, Prox 200+, Course & Comp Course History, and SG: T2G (Difficult Scoring Conditions) followed by a more balanced mix of Weighted Putting (Bermuda, Fast Greens), Driving Distance, P4: 450-500, Par 3: 200+, Par-5 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance, and SG: T2G (L12 Rounds). I typically don’t feed that many categories into my model. But, I think this event is really a testament to players who are well-rounded across a number of specific distance and short game-oriented categories.

Model Favorites

No surprise here – the No. 1 player, the hottest golfer in the world, 2022 champion, and inevitable favorite in Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, Scottie Scheffler, claims the top spot in the model this week. Scheffler followed up his 2022 win with an impressive T4 showing last year despite losing strokes to the field putting. He continues to chase his first win (outside of the Hero World Challenge) since THE PLAYERS, but has finished top-10 in six of his last seven starts.

After Scheffler, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Ludvig Aberg, and Patrick Cantlay.

When Arnold Palmer Invitational odds release Monday, I’ll give a very serious look at Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy on a tight card. If the value isn’t there, I’ll also look to Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Harris English as top prospective values.

Check back in later this week for more updates. Thanks for reading, and best of luck navigating 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds!

2024 ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL ODDS