2024 PGA TOUR Golf Bets: Arnold Palmer Invitational Final Thoughts, Betting Card, OAD

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated

PGA TOUR golf continues with Bay Hill Resort & Lodge next on tap to host the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando, Florida this Thursday. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy headline among Arnold Palmer Invitational bets this week, as John Haslbauer provides his favorite PGA TOUR picks among all the golf odds offered this week. Below, you’ll find the best odds across betting sites for each player.

The stars are out in Orlando this week as the PGA TOUR looks to put the trend of unheralded winners to date in the rearview. The acclaimed Bay Hill Resort & Lodge is next on tap to host the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Annually one of the most difficult tests on the PGA TOUR schedule, Bay Hill is a picture-perfect layout to reward players who are sharpest in the most premium skill sets. Driving Distance, Par-5 Scoring, Proximity 200+, Bogey Avoidance, and SG: Short Game on Firm & Fast Bermuda greens are all crucial this week, so it’s no surprise to see such a long list of Major champions decorate the board of past winners.

Without further ado, let’s go through all the bets I’ve placed for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Click on any of the Arnold Palmer Invitational odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations.


If there were ever a non-major week to take a stance on the very top of the betting board, this may be the best example. Bay Hill is top-5 on TOUR in terms of Predictive Course History, and Scheffler and McIlroy are No. 1 and No. 2 in terms of strokes gained in this event. That’s no coincidence, as this course is designed to reward the best overall players. 

For my betting card, I faded the longshots and prioritized players with proven course history, elite driving distance, and proven success in comparable difficult scoring conditions.

With all of that in mind, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly stake at the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

  • Outrights – 3.5U in to pay 25U each
  • FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
  • Full Tournament Matchups – 1U in to pay out 2U
  • Props – 1.5U in to pay out 3U+ each


For PGA TOUR DFS picks and longshot bet considerations, check out my golf sleepers for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Rory McIlroy

My Bet: +950
Best Available Odds:

It’s the first week of March, and we’ve still yet to see Rory crack the top 20 in a PGA TOUR event, yet here he is, headlining my very tight outright card at single-digit odds. How did we get here?

In the case of Bay Hill, I’m willing to forgive imperfect recent form in the face of near-perfect course history, given how predictive past performances have proven to be. Winner of this event in 2018, McIlroy has finished top-13 in each of his last seven appearances here, including a runner-up finish last year. 

He’s shown flashes of dominance in each return to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, posting the low round of the day at least once in six of his last seven trips to Bay Hill. A Florida resident, I expect the putter to start to heat back up again on these Bermuda greens, and he continues to look the part of World No. 2 with his current Driving and long iron form. 

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Matt Fitzpatrick

My Bet: +3500
Best Available Odds:

Another player with a great track record in difficult conditions and a picture-perfect history at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, I was surprised to see Fitzpatrick’s odds slip this far down the board. He carries a streak of five consecutive top-15 finishes at this event into this week, highlighted by a career-best T2 in 2019.

What draws me to Fitzpatrick now is his continued year-over-year gains in Driving Distance. Length is crucial at Bay Hill, and Fitzpatrick has interestingly found success despite losing strokes to the field in Driving Distance in each appearance through 2021. Now ranking top 10 in this week’s field in Driving Distance, he’s better equipped to contend.

Harris English

My Bet: +7500
Best Available Odds:

English was my spotlight featured player this week and drifted to a value range on the betting board in a field packed with so many name-brand stars. English sneakily checks all the boxes we should look for in a player at Bay Hill, however, as he passes the test in terms of recent form, course history, and results in comparable scoring conditions.

From a recent form standpoint, he enters with back-to-back top-20s, most recently placing T7 at the Genesis Invitational. His Course History is amongst the best in this field, with two top-10s over the last three years. And, he’s proven he can thrive in difficult scoring conditions, as he’s finished top-10 in three of the last four U.S. Opens.


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Sam Burns

My Bet: +3000
Best Available Odds:

The first man off my betting card is often the first man on my FRL card. We haven’t exactly seen Burns thrive for four days in difficult conditions in his early career, but we do know he can light it up on the greens in the Florida Swing. 

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +5000
Best Available Odds:

The Florida Swing is a massive green light special to fire away on Keegan Bradley FRL tickets. Yes, he’ll find the water and derail a perfect start at some point this week, but that doesn’t have to be on Thursday. He’s an elite ball-striker in this field with good history and a growing resume putting on Bermuda.

Sepp Straka

My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

I’m not shocked to see that Straka doesn’t have a better history at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Still, it is a little surprising considering the flashes he has shown on comp courses like PGA National, East Lake, and TPC Southwind. Expecting some positive regression, I like the FRL market for Straka this week.


Full Tournament Matchup: Sam Burns > Collin Morikawa

My Bet: -110

On a neutral course setup, I don’t think it’s any stretch to call a Burns versus Morikawa matchup a toss-up, given their career accomplishments to date. What makes this matchup so interesting to me, however, is that Bay Hill is not a neutral course set up, and is designed to reward all the skill sets in which Burns has an edge over Morikawa in.

Driving Distance and Putting (particularly on Bermuda) are two major advantages for Burns in this matchup, and on a streak of four consecutive top-10s, the start of the Florida Swing doesn’t seem like the time for Burns to cool down from this heater.

Top-20 Finish: Matt Fitzpatrick

My Bet: +110
Best Available Odds:

I typically like to bet multiple props, but my hands are tied in this limited-field event, and I love the value of this Fitzpatrick placement too much to pass on it. As we know with Bay Hill, course history is repeatable, so if Fitzpatrick has been able to place top-15 in each of his last five tries here versus a full field, I’ll take my chances he can do it once more against only 68 other competitors.


My Pick: Rory McIlroy

There are many more opportunities to use Rory in One And Done, whether it be the Canadian Open, Wells Fargo Championship, or (dare I say) The Masters. Of course, playing the World No. 2 at an event he has won before and repeatedly plays well at is not a contrarian stance when purses are heightened in this Signature Event. But, if I’m going to choose my spot to play one of the game’s biggest stars, I’m comfortable doing it now. 

If not McIlroy, I would also consider playing Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler, or Sam Burns in OAD.


That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own Arnold Palmer Invitational bets, and see you next Sunday for the THE PLAYERS Championship preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.


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