My 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on March 2, 2022
arnold palmer invitational bets

In between an ambitious move across Jersey City, a chaotic Winning Time premiere week (everybody please watch this Sunday, it’s going to be amazing), and a delightful night out to see Dua Lipa at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday, I have managed to string a few spare minutes together throughout this week to also research Arnold Palmer Invitational bets. It may not be the most exhaustive week of research I’ve ever had, but maybe it doesn’t have to be at an event that funnels its approaches to 200+ yards and has consistently rewarded players who perform well in difficult, Major-like conditions. Easy formula, right?

I’ll be back in TheLines’ Discord golf channel Wednesday at 8:30PM EST to talk through all my favorite 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational bets and final thoughts for this week in addition to everything covered here. Hope to see you there!

Click on the odds below if you’d like to add my 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational bets as well.

MY BETTING CARD: HOW I BUILT MY ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL BETS

My betting card this week is really defined by just chasing value and identify the players who drifted the furthest from where I expected them to open, in order to fit as many as possible into the card I constructed. I had a feeling I’d gravitate to the mid-range of players 30 to 50-1 odds, so it came down to taking a stance on a few mid-range players and fading the opposite ends of the betting board.

Ultimately, I looked for players who either have a history of strong results on this course, the ability to over-power it with distance and capitalize on scoring opportunities on the Par 5s, or ideally, a combination of both.

Unit allocations for Outrights (3U in to pay out 24U+) and Props (3U in to pay out 3U each) remain the same as usual. For FRL, I took a rare dip below my usual 65-1 cut off, so I’m just a pinch above my typical exposure there (0.6U in to pay out 10U+).

OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Sungjae Im

My Bet: +3000

Best Odds Still Available:

I’m happy to buy low on the Honda Classic pre-tournament favorite one week later at 30-1 odds. Sungjae ranks second in the field in Prox 200+ over the last 36 rounds, so if he can use the extra days from his Honda MC to polish up his short game, I prefer his chances on a longer course that will reward great long iron play. In three career appearances, Sungjae has a T21 and two T3s at the API.

Will Zalatoris

My Bet: +3000

Best Odds Still Available:

It was very obvious from the moment odds dropped on Monday that Zalatoris would be the chalk bet of the week. My initial reaction was to resist the consensus and find a new slant, but it became clear that the only reason not to bet Zalatoris at 30-1 would be for the sake of being different, and that’s not how I go about golf betting! He has a remarkable track record already on longer, difficult courses that reward long hitter and strong long iron players, so hopefully he wins, and everyone wins. 

Adam Scott

My Bet: +3500

Best Odds Still Available:

I couldn’t not bet Adam Scott after featuring him as my Spotlight player in this week’s tournament Preview. Truthfully, I don’t think this is a spectacular number on Scott, and the value may be better on his countrymate Marc Leishman, who’s recently won here, at similar odds. But, I’m a sucker for a bomber on a long Par 72, and I’m encouraged by the T4 at the Genesis last week, so I’m optimistic he can continue that moment at Bay Hill, which should suit him perfectly.

Jason Kokrak

My Bet: +5000

Best Odds Still Available:

Bay Hill is a perfect spot to suit Jason Kokrak’s top-tier driving distance and ball striking profile. That has translated in his results here with six T20s over his last 8 appearances, including four top-10s. He’s also gained T2G in every trip he’s made to this event. While the putter has held him back from higher finishes at this event, we should have more reason for optimism this time around, as Kokrak has transformed himself into one of the TOUR’s best putters since 2021.

Kevin Na

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

This is just a pure value play for me on a player with the win equity and overall caliber of Kevin Na drifting to 100-1 at an event he’s had steady results in. Bay Hill definitely favors bombers and longer hitters, but we’ve seen plenty of short game specialists like Marc Leishman, Francesco Molinari, and Tyrrell Hatton still find repeated success here. If conditions are tough and greens become increasingly difficult to hit in regulation, I’ll take a chance on Kevin Na in a short game contest at these odds.

FIRST ROUND LEADER (0.6 UNITS)

Rory McIlroy

My Bet: +2600

Best Odds Still Available:

This may be the first time I’ve ever place a FRL bet at shorter than 50-1 odds. There’s a lot to like about Rory this week, but I don’t like him enough to bite the bullet at 12-1 odds with Jon Rahm still lurking in this field. Instead, I’ll take my chances on the 2021 API first round leader, at more palatable 26-1 odds.

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

I am obligated to bet Sebastian Munoz FRL every week regardless of form or fit, but this is a rare instance where the form and fit actually point in his direction. Munoz has been great T2G over the last few months, and is a streaky putter away from putting himself in contention to win. We all know that’s most likely to materialize on a Thursday, so I like our chances this week.

Danny Lee

My Bet: +17500

Best Odds Still Available:

Last week I spoke about Adam Svensson profiling as the perfect FRL candidate, as a player who’s just as likely to shoot -6 as +6. He gave us a good sweat last Thursday, so if we’re chasing a similar profile, Danny Lee is most definitely that player this week. I don’t know if Lee will withdraw or make the cut, but there’s plenty reason for optimism that Lee can go low on a course he finish top-5 on back in 2020, if only for one round.

PROPS (3 UNITS)

Top-10 Finish: Rory McIlroy

My Bet: +185

Best Odds Still Available:

If I were handicapping this tournament, I would give Rory McIlroy the shortest odds on the board in the T10 market. He has finished inside the top-10 in each of his last five API appearances and has four T15 finishes in his last four PGA TOUR starts. Normally I look to place a conviction prop at even odds, so I’ll happily take the price discount here at +185.

Top-20 Finish: Justin Rose

My Bet: +250

Best Odds Still Available:

I like Justin Rose’s form entering this week after a lackluster 2021 season. He’s a great fit for Bay Hill, rating out above-average in driving accuracy and driving distance, and he looked on his way to a comfortable T20 finish at this event last year before being forced to WD with back spasms. Assuming he gets four rounds in this week, I like his chances to hang around the top-20.

Top-30 Finish: Kevin Na

My Bet: +220

Best Odds Still Available:

Yet another value bet, I just don’t agree with where the market is placing Kevin Na this week. I’m not saying I expect him to win, but I don’t think it’s asking much for Kevin Na finish top-30 here. He’s finished inside the top-30 in eight of his last 11 starts and has six career API top-30 finishes.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Adam Scott

If you had told me Mito Pereira would finish 6th T2G at the Honda Classic while entering that event as the number one putter in the world over the last 3 months, I would have already chartered a yacht to Chile with the winnings we were in store for. Alas, he had one of the worst putting weeks of his career, so we remain in an early OAD hole.

This week, though with less conviction, I’m hoping Adam Scott will right the ship. There aren’t many “must-play” spots that come to mind for me when it comes to Adam Scott, but I know I’m going to feel most comfortable about his chances on a difficult course that rewards longer hitters and elite ball-strikers. Coming off a T4 at The Genesis, I’m not sure how many better spots there will be to play Scott for the rest of the year.

If not Adam Scott, I think Will Zalatoris, Sungjae Im, Marc Leishman, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Jason Kokrak all make a lot of sense here.

FINAL BETTING CARD

CLOSING THOUGHTS

I was prepared to fill an entire section of storylines about Bryson DeChambeau, but with him now having withdrawn, I’m left empty handed. In general, I think we should expect the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard to look reminiscent of what we’ve seen at recent Majors. Players with plus-distance off the tee and elite short game should be positioned best to contend here. If I could only bet one player this week, it would probably have to be Will Zalatoris, but there’re a long list of names in the 20 to 40-1 odds range that I would expect to be in the mix come Sunday. I’ll take a player sub-40-1 odds to win this week over the field.

Best of luck with your Arnold Palmer Invitational bets. See you next week for THE PLAYERS! 

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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