Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview: Everything You Need To Know About Bay Hill

It’s another week of golf action on the PGA Tour. The next stop is the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Compare Arnold Palmer Invitational odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Ludvig Aberg project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

Another week, another signature event! All the game’s best return to action in Orlando for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational (API) at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. That means Arnold Palmer Invitational odds include all the best players on the PGA Tour.

The API tests players’ all-around game and has produced a decorated list of winners with few surprises. Standing over 7,400 yards, Bay Hill forces a high volume of approaches from 200+ yards and features some of the thickest rough on tour. That emphasizes distance, long irons, and short game around firm and fast Bermuda greens.

Over the last seven years, Kevin Chappell remains the only player to have registered four rounds in the 60s in the same tournament. So, we should expect patience from players to battle through four challenging days of golf. Here is everything you can expect from Bay Hill and with 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds.

2025 OPENING ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Scroll to the bottom of this article to compare complete API outright odds. Find the favorites in Florida this week with odds shorter than 20-1 below when those become available.

THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

The API follows the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and the Genesis Invitational as the fourth signature event of the season. With its signature status, the purse has increased to an event-high $20M. Naturally, that attracted almost every eligible player inside the OWGR top 50, including Xander Schauffele, who will return from injury for his first start since The Sentry. Rasmus Hojgaard (OWGR No. 47) is the only eligible player who has opted not to tee it up at Bay Hill this week.

PGA Tour odds this week include a tight field of just 72 players, down dramatically from the 120 who previously filled this Invitational tournament before its upgrade to signature event status. Unfortunately, that eliminates Cinderella longshot stories like Kurt Kitayama. However, the tour made its intention clear that it wants its most significant events to feature prominent stars in contention come Sunday.

Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler are in a class this week. Both are past champions who are in great form with wins over the last few months. This week, there should be a clear gap in Arnold Palmer Invitational odds between the top two and the rest of the field. The next tier of Aberg, Schauffele, Morikawa, Thomas, and Cantlay each carry question marks regarding their recent form or course history.

Aside from defending champion Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jason Day are the only other past champions of this event returning in the field. It’s a bit strange to see 2023 champion Kurt Kitayama not in the field, even if not by way of a sponsor’s invite, given his recent win here and solid start to the 2025 season.

INTRODUCTION TO BAY HILL

We are in the teeth of the “grinder” stretch on the PGA Tour. For the second straight week, par will score well on most holes. Like PGA National last week, penalties loom, with water hazards in play on nine holes. The API has caused the highest percentage of penalty strokes in four of the previous five years. Unlike PGA National, however, there is a far greater penalty for missed fairways. Bay Hill features some of the rough we see on the tour schedule.

The top 10 players in this field in SG: ball striking on courses with high penalties for missed fairways and playing from the rough are Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood, Will Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger, and Russell Henley. It’s a real “who’s who” of major contenders who tend to rise to the top of leaderboards at Bay Hill.

Similar to PGA National, heavy Florida winds factor in. In 2020, Tyrrell Hatton survived severe winds with a Sunday 74. His -4 was enough to claim victory by one stroke. In 2022, the weather took a turn for the worse over the weekend. It quickly became a scrambling contest, with greens nearly impossible to reach in regulation. The median score has fallen around +5 in years when winds are up. Needless to say, it’ll be worth monitoring the forecast this week.

There’s also a steady trend of international players finding success here, suggesting an advantage for those comfortable in conditions more exposed to the elements. While Kitayama is American, his decorated prior history on the DP World Tour furthers a trend of players with proven performance in the elements finding success at Bay Hill.

COURSE HISTORY & COURSE COMPS

A long list of players have enjoyed repeat success at the API. It’s an eclectic group of bombers and short-game specialists, but none come as much of a surprise.

Looking at each of the last eight winners, it’s notable that seven posted a top-15 finish at this event before picking up their win. If that trend continues, a longer list of 32 players fits the bill. Notables who have made multiple API starts without a top-15 finish include Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Tom Kim, Min Woo Lee, and Sepp Straka. Given this strong trend of prior course history, I will be crossing them each off of my outright betting card list.

Rory McIlroy

Rory must have a flair for invitationals. If there’s an event he’s proven more consistent at than The Genesis, it’s the API. Over 10 career appearances, he’s never finished outside the top 30. That includes a win in 2018 and a current streak of eight consecutive top-20 finishes.

He led the first round in 2022 and posted the day’s low round in eight of the last nine API events. After a promising victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, McIlroy comes to this event with significant momentum and is a legitimate threat to challenge Scheffler at this venue.

Others Excelling At The Arnold Palmer Invitational

After McIlroy, the rest of the top 10 in course history are Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jason Day, Max Homa, Corey Conners, Chris Kirk, Keegan Bradley, and Will Zalatoris. Although that list spans drastically different profiles of players, there’s a prevailing trend of veterans who’ve proven consistent in difficult scoring conditions.

Nine players in this field have delivered multiple T10 finishes over the last five years: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Chris Kirk, Keegan Bradley, Harris English, Max Homa, Will Zalatoris, and Matt Fitzpatrick. Additional players with multiple top-15 finishes over the same span include Corey Conners, Cameron Young, Sahith Theegala, and Byeong Hun An.

There’s a long list of 14 players who have avoided missing the cut over the last five years (minimum three appearances): Scheffler, McIlroy, Hovland, Day, Homa, Bradley, Zalatoris, Kirk, Fitzpatrick, English, Im, An, Henley, and Schauffele. That list illustrates that course history is more sticky at Bay Hill than most other courses.

Course Comps

This is one of the rare weeks on the PGA Tour where course history is sticky enough to prioritize over comp course history. With that said, plenty of signals remain to draw from other long and difficult comp conditions.

Quail Hollow is the best place to start. Both courses are over 7,400 yards, which is an advantage for bombers. They feature thick and penal rough throughout and have firm and fast Bermuda greens. Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, and Viktor Hovland have all proven the strong correlation between both courses.

PGA National and Innisbrook Resort also share characteristics similar to those of the Florida region. Muirfield Village has offered a similarly stern test with its length, thick, rough, and firm greens.

Annually one of the most challenging scoring venues on the PGA Tour schedule, it’s always a good idea to reference recent Major results, as Scheffler foreshadowed with his 2022 victory. Oak Hill, Valhalla, Pinehurst No. 2, Bethpage Black, Torrey Pines (South), The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island, and Augusta National are strong comps to simulate scoring under challenging conditions.

Wrap that all together, and the top 10 players in terms of comp course history are Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay, Russell Henley, Collin Morikawa, Shane Lowry, and Will Zalatoris.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER FOR 2025 ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL ODDS

• Driving Distance / SG: OTT
• SG: APP
• SG: ARG
• Bogey Avoidance
• Prox: 200+
• P3: 200+
• P4: 450-500
• Par-5 Scoring
• SG: T2G (Difficult Scoring Conditions)
• SG: Putting (Bermuda / Fast Bermuda)
• Course & Comp History

The diversity of leaderboards we’ve seen here makes Bay Hill so great. You can’t simply cross players off from contending if they are below average in distance, approach, or putting. We’ve seen Matt Every win as often as Tiger Woods since 2010. There’s no set formula to find success at Bay Hill, but prior success in demanding conditions is the best indicator. The top 10 players in SG: T2G (difficult scoring conditions) are Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, Ludvig Aberg, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Shane Lowry, Corey Conners, and Si Woo Kim.

Bay Hill offers a high concentration of approaches from long-range. About one-third of approaches come from beyond 200 yards, and 70% come from over 150. The top players in terms of proximity 200+ are Austin Eckroat, Brian Harman, Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im, Nicolai Hojgaard, Max Greyserman, Si Woo Kim, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Denny McCarthy, and Patrick Cantlay.

Bay Hill offers a different test on second shots than we’re used to seeing. We’ll see plenty of long iron approaches out of thick rough. They’ll often serve to bail out false fronts where players can make an “easier” up and down.

It’s still a PGA Tour event, and SG: APP still reigns supreme. Players who excel in approach give themselves scoring opportunities on a course where those are not exactly abundant. Top players in SG: APP playing this week are Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Lucas Glover, Nick Taylor, Tommy Fleetwood, Tom Kim, and Collin Morikawa.

Short Game Emphasis

With a winning score of -12 or less in six of the last eight contests, repeatedly scrambling for pars is a premium skill set. Nine players rank in the top 40 in SG: ARG, scrambling gained, and bogey avoidance Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, Daniel Berger, Andrew Novak, Patrick Cantlay, Davis Thompson, and Sungjae Im.

From a putting standpoint, Bermuda specialists stand out on the Florida Swing. This course has seen success from short-game savants like Kevin Kisner, Billy Horschel, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. In a weighted model of recent total putting, Bermuda putting, fast green putting, and API putting, the top players are Nico Echavarria, Sam Burns, Max Greyserman, Maverick McNealy, Stephan Jaeger, Harris English, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Sungjae Im, Thomas Detry, and Denny McCarthy.

Piecing this together, I’m looking to zero in on players above average in SG: APP, prox 200+, SG: ARG, SG: T2G (L16 rounds), course history and comp course history, and total weighted putting. There are just four players who fit that criteria: Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, and Denny McCarthy.

Correlation And Bay Hill

As is usually the case when we get to a challenging golf course that tests all-around game, the markers of success at Bay Hill do not vary drastically from what it takes to succeed across all PGA Tour courses.

The biggest jump in importance in terms of correlation with SG: TOT is SG: Short Game and SG: APP. That makes sense on a course that yields a high percentage of missed greens in regulation.

SG: P (20-25 ft), P3: 200+, and driving distance also saw notable increases in importance compared to the tour average.

As for stats to avoid, prox 75-125 and sand saves gained saw the biggest drop in importance.

Four players rate out above average in each of the above top-10 stat categories for Bay Hill: Scottie Scheffler, Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, and Hideki Matsuyama.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Hideki Matsuyama

Hideki Matsuyama’s 2025 season started with a bang after setting the PGA Tour scoring record at The Sentry. With his elevated play since then, he may have just been scratching the surface for better results for the rest of this season.

Plagued with chronic injuries over the prime of his career, he seems to have made those surprise withdrawals a thing of the past, at least for the time being. Matsuyama has realized his full potential and demonstrated what a dominant player he can be when fully healthy. Matsuyama has not missed a cut in six starts this season and has posted four top-25 finishes, including The Sentry win.

At Bay Hill, it’s crucial to have plus driving distance, long iron proximity, and reliable touch around the greens. That is Matsuyama’s game in a nutshell, as he joins Scheffler, Fleetwood, and Aberg as the only four players to rank in the top 30 in this field across each of those categories. In the deepest field we’ve seen thus far in the 2025 season, it’s Matsuyama who rises to No. 2 overall in my model, a credit to his top-10 ranks in recent form, SG: APP, SG: T2G (difficult conditions), bogey avoidance, and SG: TOT (Florida Swing).

It’s essential to trend into your first career Arnold Palmer Invitational win with evidence of contending in prior years first. Matsuyama has done just that, finishing top-20 in three of the last four years at this event. Assuming he remains in good health, Matsuyama will be an appealing value when API odds release on Monday, as he is likely to be priced longer than the likes of Scheffler, McIlroy, Aberg, Morikawa, Thomas, Schauffele, and Cantlay.

2025 ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m also looking their way in the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds. I’ve broken the list by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and rankings projections for Underdog Fantasy, with odds and pricing released earlier this week.

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS

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Tier 1

Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Justin Thomas

Tier 2

Patrick Cantlay
Tommy Fleetwood
Hideki Matsuyama

Tier 3

Sam Burns
Wyndham Clark
Adam Scott
Jason Day

Tier 4

Denny McCarthy
Max Homa
Harris English

Tier 5

Austin Eckroat
Max Greyserman

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ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

For my model this week, I’m prioritizing SG: APP, SG: ARG, prox 200+, course history and comp course history, and SG: T2G (difficult scoring conditions) followed by a more balanced mix of weighted putting (Bermuda, fast greens), driving distance, par 3: 200+, par-5 scoring, bogey avoidance, and SG: T2G (L12 rounds). I typically don’t feed that many categories into my model. But, I think this event is a testament to well-rounded players across several specific distance and short game-oriented categories.

Model Favorites

No surprise here – the No. 1 player, the hottest golfer in the world, two-time defending Arnold Palmer Invitational champion, and inevitable favorite, Scottie Scheffler, claims the top spot in the model this week. Scheffler has finished 1st, T4, and 1st over his last three appearances at Bay Hill. He’s gotten off to a “slow” start in 2025 with finishes of T9, T25, and T3 over his first three starts, but will be the prohibitive favorite when Arnold Palmer Invitational odds release on Monday.

After Scheffler, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Russell Henley, Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry, Sam Burns, and Tommy Fleetwood.

When Arnold Palmer Invitational odds release Monday, I will go one of two ways: either roll out a Rory McIlroy single bullet or build a top-heavy card with Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, and Patrick Cantlay. Given Scheffler and McIlroy’s dominance at Bay Hill and their current form, this does not set up to be a week for a surprise longshot winner.

Check back in later this week for more updates. Thanks for reading, and best of luck navigating the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds!

2025 ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL ODDS

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