Army vs. Navy College Football Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions: Will Trend Continue?
The 124th meeting between Army (11-1) and Navy (8-3) is approaching in Landover, Md. With both teams beating Air Force earlier in the year, the Black Knights will vie to retain the Commander-in-Chief’s (CIC) Trophy for the sixth time in the last eight seasons. However, this marks the first time since 2018 that the trophy is up for grabs this late in the campaign. Let’s evaluate the odds for Army vs. Navy, including whether the game will follow the historical trend of going under the total.
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army vs. navy: spread, moneyline, total
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Will Trend Continue?
Since 2003, the under is 50-10-3 when service academies have faced off. Both offenses employ similar concepts using a triple-option scheme, so there’s plenty of familiarity. Nevertheless, SP+ calculated a final score projection of 31-23, equivalent to 54 points. Each team ranks in the top 25 under EPA per play, correlating with its clock-churning ground game while setting up some explosive passes.
Per the odds board for Army vs. Navy, the best price on the under is 44.5 (-110) on FanDuel for bettors who side with history.
Last season, the total was 28 by kickoff at BetMGM Sportsbook. Following a scoreless first quarter, Army took a 10-0 lead at halftime. The Black Knights led 10-3 with just five minutes left, but the Midshipmen wrapped up a 15-point flurry with a safety in the waning moments, causing a push for most total bettors.
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Black Knights With An Edge
Army’s Bryson Daily paces all signal-callers across D-I in rushing yards (1,474) and touchdowns on the ground (29). Daily has completed 57.7% of his throws but averages an FBS-best 16.5 aDOT, 11.2 YPA, and an 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Meanwhile, Navy QB Blake Horvath reaggravated his back spasms in a blowout loss to Tulane on Nov. 16. The following week, the Midshipmen were forced to turn to backup Braxton Woodson in a come-from-behind win against East Carolina.
Horvath has produced 1,154 yards through the air and rushed for another 895 yards, totaling 24 touchdowns. He’s expected to suit up in this rivalry game, with his odds for an anytime touchdown lined at Blake Horvath -100.
Conversely, the Black Knights rank 83rd in defensive success rate and 65th in efficiency. Yet, they’ve only surrendered a 51.7% touchdown conversion rate in the red zone. They also limit chunk plays, ranking fourth in marginal explosiveness.
Regarding common ground, Army trounced Tulane as an underdog in their AAC championship matchup after the Green Wave blanked Navy. Given that the Black Knights are positioned under the key number of seven, I recommend backing them if you’re interested in betting on the point spread.
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