Argentina Vs. France: 2022 World Cup Final Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on December 15, 2022
Argentina vs. France odds

2022 World Cup odds for the Final feature France vs. Argentina. This match will be televised in the U.S. on FOX and Telemundo on Sunday, Dec. 18 at 10 a.m. ET. Argentina seeks their first World Cup victory since 1986. Meanwhile, the French look to go back-to-back after also taking the 2018 World Cup. They’d be the first to do so since Brazil in 1962.

Bettors should be aware during the Knockout Rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If tied after that but a team wins in Extra Time or Penalty Kicks, soccer’s version of overtime, all three-way moneyline bets are still graded as a draw. If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out no matter when the win comes, look for “To Lift Trophy” or “To Win Championship” props.

Argentina Vs. France Odds

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Argentina Team Preview

Is it written in the stars? Will Lionel Messi finally get his hands on the World Cup? He has fallen short at the final hurdle once before, and the last thing he will want is to fall short in his final appearance for Argentina.

If the stakes were high before the weekend, Messi’s announcement of international retirement would only serve to raise them further. He has already fallen short in 2014, he would be loathed to do so again in 2022. 

This is why Argentina’s path to the final has almost become a one-man mission up until now. Admittedly his teammates have chimed in from time to time, but it does feel as if the PSG forward is carrying a whole nation on his back. 

A role that he has assumed for himself and one that he is clearly rather good at. Add the fact that the 35-year-old could just as easily win the Golden Boot and Golden Ball and an unprecedented treble may soon be coming his way.

However, the two personal accolades are largely immaterial should the team one not be secured. If it is only individual prizes for the former Barcelona star, they will be nothing more than trinkets to add to his already hefty collection.

Now it is up to a player who is considered of the two very best to ever play the game, to be the very best of all. The only way he can finally pull clear of nemesis Cristiano Ronaldo is by finally winning the World Cup. 

France Team Preview

Although the idea of Morocco reaching a first World Cup final was largely appealing. That idea was brought to a shuddering halt by their French opponents. Although we may have been deprived of a David versus Goliath tale, we are given a heavyweight clash instead.

One that sees the current holders return to the fixture where the biggest prize in world soccer is handed out. While Les Blues will look to be the first nation to retain the trophy since Brazil managed to do so 60 years ago.

While it was France themselves who stopped Brazil from achieving a second back-to-back set of victories in 1998. A Zinedine Zidane-inspired win saw Aime Jacquet’s men win 3-0 on home soil and in doing so, they recorded a first-ever Wolrd Cup final win. 

Now it is the French who must make sure they are not foiled at the final hurdle. Because although it is difficult to win this tournament once, it is almost impossible to win it again four years later.

Almost but totally and this is what current manager Didier Deschamps will be clinging onto before Sunday. While although he may not be clinging on in terms of employment, his contract does come to an end this month.

A scenario that means Sunday could very well be his last hurrah as France’s national team manager. He has already made a strong case to be their greatest ever, he could make that case cast iron with a win over Argentina. 

World Cup Knockout Rounds Bracket

world cup bracket

France Vs. Argentina Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Argentina has been arguably the most dominant team of the tournament, now surpassing even Brazil in expected goal difference. France had a couple of shakier games in terms of xGoals, particularly a quarterfinal win against England in which the metric credited the English with the stronger game.

TeamGoals ForGoals AgainstGoal DifferencexGoals ForxGoals AgainstxGoal Difference
Argentina125+7 13.212.43+10.78
France135+8 12.057.51+4.54

Matchup History

In terms of the history between Argentina and France, the previous chapter was written as recently as the  2018 World Cup in Russia. It may have only been a Round of 16 pairing, but it was a fixture that was fit for any final.

One that saw France end up on the winning side after a seven-goal thriller. The 4-3 win in Kazan announced Kylian Mbappe on the world stage, as his double played a considerable part in Les Blues’ advancing to the quarter-finals.

While it is a result that the Argentinians will certainly have not forgotten about either. They may have won six of the previous 12 meetings between the two, but they would happily swap all of those if it meant lifting the World Cup trophy on Sunday. 

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Argentina Vs. France Bets To Consider

Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe both score 1+ goals parlay: +575

With the battlelines being drawn up between Argentina and France, there is also a neat subplot that contains each of their biggest stars. Not only is world domination on the line, but also the Golden Boot to go with it.

Going into Sunday’s final, both Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe find themselves on five goals each. While the latter has failed to score in each of his last two outings, the former is making a late charge for personal gold.

Then again, what better way to return to scoring form than by doing it when it matters the most. Not only will Mbappe not want the World Cup to slip through his fingers, but he also will not want to see the Golden Boot go elsewhere either.

This is why both players will be primed and ready to find themselves on the scoresheet and this is why I am backing both players to do precisely this. Should you combine the two in a parlay, the odds are fused together to offer +575.

An incredible price when you consider goalscoring form in Qatar, the stakes of the game, and the quality of the players involved. With all these factors in mind, at least one goal each makes perfect sense to me.

Draw (after 90 minutes):

When you look at the moneyline before Sunday, the sportsbook almost cannot split the two nations. If they cannot split them and they know far better than you or I claim to do, then I am not prepared to split them either.

I may be sitting on the fence but I am backing the tie in 90 minutes. If anybody can make a strong case as to why Argentina is better than France or vice versa, then I would love to hear such an impassioned plea. 

Although the idea of Morocco would have been rather romantic and you could also argue that England should have made it to a second successive international tournament final, it does feel as if the right two nations are ready and waiting for Sunday.

You have Lionel Messi in one corner, you have Kylian Mbappe in the other. Messi has his possible heir apparent Julian Alvarez ready to support him in attack, and Mbappe can count on the wise head of Olivier Giroud to help lead the line.

Add the fact that Emi Martinez and Hugo Lloris will be marshaling defenses that are capable of conceding and this makes things even tighter to call. Therefore, I am backing the tie and waiting for it all to unfold in extra-time or even penalties. 

Best of luck wagering on Argentina vs. France odds.

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