Argentina Vs. Croatia: 2022 World Cup Semifinal Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on December 12, 2022 - Last Updated on December 13, 2022
Argentina Croatia odds

2022 World Cup odds for the semifinals feature Croatia vs. Argentina. This match will be televised in the U.S. on FOX and Telemundo on Tuesday, Dec. 13 at 2 p.m. ET. The victor advances to the World Cup finals.

Bettors should be aware during the Knockout Rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If tied after that but a team wins in Extra Time or Penalty Kicks, soccer’s version of overtime, all three-way moneyline bets are still graded as a draw. If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out no matter when the win comes, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

Argentina Vs. Croatia Odds

Play TheLines World Cup KnockoutChallenge! Compete for $250 in prizes in our FREE leaderboard game during the World Cup tournament stage.

Argentina Team Preview

By the time Lionel Messi put Argentina two goals clear of the Netherlands, it looked as if progress to the semifinals was nothing more than a formality. Fast forward another 10 minutes and Wout Weghorst’s header for the Dutch had set up a grandstand finish.

One that even though it created an element of jeopardy, was still one that was unlikely to offer a late twist in this most recent World Cup tale. That was, until Weghorst slotted home again in the 10th minute of injury time.

A stunning free-kick maneuver surprised the Argentinian defense and wowed soccer’s global fraternity at the same time. Not only that, but it would mean 30 more minutes would now be added to the 100 already played.

Another half hour could not break the deadlock either. With penalties serving as the final tiebreaker, Argentina’s Emi Martinez would eventually break Dutch hearts in Doha.

There is no doubt that Lionel Scaloni’s men deserved to win Friday’s encounter. Just plenty of doubts as to why they ended up doing things the hard way. And if their semifinal clash with Croatia also goes to a shootout, their fortune may soon run out.

This is why this current Argentina crop will want to make sure the job is done in 90 minutes. Should they do so, Sunday’s World Cup final will lie in wait and the marvelous Messi will be one game from finally conquering this sport for good.

Croatia Team Preview

For those who advocate going straight to penalties after 90 minutes, Croatia’s quarterfinal meeting with Brazil highlighted why this simply cannot be the case. Without such a period of added time, we would have never witnessed the drama that unfolded on Friday.

Drama that looked rather unlikely after Neymar weaved his way through Croatia’s defense at the end of extra time’s first period. A sublime goal and one that would have knocked the stuffing out of a lesser side.

Thankfully for those who follow the Croatian national team, their beloved stars are made of far sterner stuff. A team that never knows when to fold and certainly never knows when to quit. That word that is simply not in manager Zlatko Dalić’s lexicon and with the dice rolled on, he would soon see the ultimate reward. One that came courtesy of Bruno Petković’s stunning equalizer. 

Stunning for the team that just scored and stunned was the team that conceded it.

With the 2018 finalists already beating Japan via a shootout in Qatar, the balance soon tipped in their favor yet again. Rodrygo saw his 12-yard effort saved by Dominik Livaković. With the goalkeeper’s outfield teammates holding their nerve from the same distance, Brazil’s Marquinhos failed to keep his and that was that. Agony for one nation, jubilation for the other.

World Cup Knockout Rounds Bracket

world cup bracket

Croatia Vs. Argentina Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Argentina has been arguably the most dominant team of the tournament, trailing only Brazil in expected goal difference. Croatia, however, has overcome some rough performances, including a big xG deficit to those same Brazilians.

TeamGoals ForGoals AgainstGoal DifferencexGoals ForxGoals AgainstxGoal Difference
Argentina95+4 10.121.9+8.22
Croatia63+3 6.588.36-1.78

Matchup History

Regarding the history between Argentina and Croatia, there are only a handful of previous skirmishes to look back upon. Five to be exact and of this quintet, each nation has won two fixtures.

Of those five meetings, the most recent clash came in the World Cup group stage four years ago. The stakes were undoubtedly not as high as Tuesday but it was still an entertaining duel all the same. Croatia won by three goals to nil.

Now though, Argentina will have nothing more than revenge on their minds. And if they can clear this penultimate hurdle in Qatar, it would also mean a second finals appearance in the past three World Cup tournaments.

Argentina Vs. Croatia Bets To Consider

Lionel Messi to score anytime:

You would have honestly thought that the sportsbooks would have caught on by now. Although for as long as they do not, I am always going to back Lionel Messi to score anytime.

Especially when those same sportsbooks offer plus odds for me to do so. In the tournament so far, it feels like I have been buying money thanks to Messi’s attacking prowess. And if you have acted on my tips, then the same purchase of dollars would be yours.

Because this act is not simply picking the player with the shortest price in the anytime market. It is picking a player who has almost carried Argentina on his back in Qatar and one who is not ready to drop the nation just yet.

With four goals to his name already, Messi also finds himself in the race for this year’s Golden Boot award. Although that is far from the PSG forward’s main priority in the Middle East, this individual award would look good alongside any outright accolades that could soon follow.

The easiest way to get closer to the double is by finding the net against a stubborn Croatian defense. Admittedly, it is something easier said than done. Then again, this is Messi we are talking about. And somehow, the diminutive star always seems to find a way.

Croatia to win on penalties: +800

Can lightning strike thrice for Croatia? That is the big question that will be asked before Tuesday. After already disposing of both Japan and Brazil via penalties, the European outfit will be more than ready to go through the ordeal against Argentina.

Not only that but if it should be a third successive shootout for the Croats, then backing them to come out on top is certainly something that comes recommended. Because if the game does require extra time, then it quickly becomes Croatia’s time.

For a team that was largely written off at the start of the tournament, all the talk of Zlatko Dalić’s side not having the legs to make decent progress has now been denounced. Now, these same legs are just one game from a second successive World Cup final.

Of course, Croatia has to be considered nothing short of a soccer miracle. They have only been active in international tournament soccer for 26 years. In that time, they have reached the World Cup’s final four on three separate occasions. 

Yes, they will go into the clash with Argentina as underdogs, but you could have said the same before their meeting with fellow South American outfit Brazil. This means if Tuesday’s tussle does go to spot kicks, backing the 2018 finalists to win is certainly the value pick.

Best of luck wagering on Argentina vs. Croatia odds.

World Cup Sports Betting Promos Argentina vs. Croatia Odds

There are several bonus offers to use on Argentina vs. Croatia odds at sportsbooks in your area.

Dan Tracey Avatar
Written by
Dan Tracey

View all posts by Dan Tracey