Argentina Vs. Australia: 2022 World Cup Round of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on December 1, 2022 - Last Updated on December 3, 2022
Argentina vs Australia odds

2022 FIFA World Cup odds now feature the Round of 16. One match pits Argentina, winners of Group C, against Australia, runners-up in Group D. The game takes place at 2 p.m. ET on Dec. 3, televised by FOX and Telemundo in the United States. What do Argentina vs. Australia odds have to say about each team’s chance of advancing?

Bettors should be aware during the Knockout Rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If tied after that but a team wins in Extra Time or Penalty Kicks, soccer’s version of overtime, all three-way moneyline bets are still graded as a draw. If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out no matter when the win comes, look for “To Advance” props.   

Argentina Vs. Australia Odds

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Argentina Team Preview

After suffering one of the biggest shocks in World Cup history, it seems as if Argentina is now hitting its stride at this year’s tournament. Although their reverse to Saudi Arabia will be in the history books forever, so will their subsequent wins over Mexico and Poland.

A pair of 2-0 wins which saw Lionel Scaloni’s men eventually earn the top spot in Group C and in doing so, they have been paired with Australia in the Round of 16. Admittedly it is a favorable pairing but everyone said the same before that historic meeting with the Saudis. 

While if there is a perfect time to get imperfections out of the way, it is certainly at the beginning of the tournament. That blip has been smoothed over and now Argentina is thinking about one thing and one thing only.

That one thing is lifting the World Cup trophy for the first time since 1986. Although they came close both four and 28 years later, their attempts in 1990 and 2014 would see them act as bridesmaids rather than brides.

Of course, there is also a neat subplot regarding Lionel Messi. The diminutive forward has scooped up every other major accolade that has come his way. There is just one trophy missing from his cabinet.

He has undoubtedly been the driving force behind Argentina’s resurgence in recent times and although he missed a penalty against Poland on Wednesday, even the game’s greatest have to show they are human from time to time. 

Australia Team Preview

When it comes to Australia’s golden generation in the beautiful game, this current crop of the Soceroos has done the ugly things incredibly well. So much so, that they now find themselves in this year’s Round of 16.

Manager Graham Arnold may not be able to call upon the likes of Harry Kewell or Mark Viduka but he need not worry about missing out on the class of 2006. Because the class of 2022 is now coming of age.

Collectively they do not have a player who can be truly considered world-class and even Australian fans would readily admit such a fact. However, what they lack in out and out talent, they have easily replaced with both heart and desire.

It may be something of a cliche to say this Australian squad is nothing more than hardworking but such a statement is not intended to do any player a disservice. It is that precise attribute that has seen them climb out of Group D.

After losing 4-1 to France, it would have been very easy for Arnold’s men to lick their wounds and become a shell of themselves in the two matches that followed. Thankfully for those watching in cities such as Melbourne or Sydney, this was far from the case.

A spirited win over Tunisia was followed by a dramatic victory over Denmark. With six well-earned points in their back pocket and with a groundswell of momentum now behind this squad, they will feel that they can take on any opposition that stands in front of them.

World Cup Knockout Rounds Bracket

Argentina Vs. Australia Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

TeamGoals ScoredGoals AllowedGoal Difference2022 World Cup xG2022 World Cup xGA2022 World Cup xGD

Matchup History

In terms of the history between Argentina and Australia, it is the former that has won the majority of their seven previous encounters. In fact, the South American nation has only suffered one defeat at the hands of the Socceroos.

That reverse came back in 1988 and was the first time the two met on the international stage. A win that meant very little in the grand scheme of things, as it was nothing more than a glorified friendly.

Although the upcoming meeting in Qatar will be anything but friendly. With Argentina having gone unbeaten in each of their last six clashes with Australia, it is not a streak they will want to see ended on Sunday. 

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Argentina Vs. Australia Odds: Bets To Consider

Halftime tie: +165

If there is one thing that has stood out the most in this year’s World Cup, it is the litany of 0-0 scorelines that have been recorded by halftime. After Argentina’s win over Poland, the figure now stands at an incredible 22.

That is not to say that the product on show has been lackluster, more early pragmatism has won more often than not. While it is this same pragmatism that will pique my interest before Saturday.

Although Australia cannot win the game in the first 45 minutes, the encounter can certainly be out of sight by the interval. By the same token, Argentina will be in no rush to secure victory either.

This is why the first half of this encounter could well be like so many others in Qatar. One that is tantamount to nothing more than sparring and if the Socceroos can land a jab or two before the break, they will only grow in confidence.

Play not to lose in the first half, play to win in the second. That will be the gameplan for Australia and if they stick to such instructions, you can instruct the sportsbooks to withdraw your winnings. 

Argentina 2-1, 3-1 or 4-1 win: +380

Should the above Australian game plan be carried out to perfection, the second half is set to be a more entertaining affair. While even if the best-laid plans go to waste, things should certainly become more open after the break.

If Argentina gets an early advantage, they could just as easily find themselves going up through the attacking gears and this could mean 90 minutes seems even longer for their Australian opponents. 

This is why I have opted for a range of correct score bets as my second tip. In knockout tournament soccer, it can be hard to truly nail down the exact outcome, which is why I have gone for three instead.

Here I am banking on an Argentina win and both teams scoring. However, I am only looking for Australia to score once and this is something that they have achieved in each of the first three outings.

Should that be the case, then all that is required is for Argentina to do the heavy lifting in front of goal. They can win 2-1, 3-1, or even 4-1 in this encounter. If any of those scorelines are registered, your bet will be registered as a winner. 

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