Best Anytime Touchdown Odds & Picks For Seahawks At Bears: Bet On Odunze ATD?
The final Thursday Night Football contest is on our doorstep. The Seattle Seahawks (8-7) – still alive in the NFC West race – visit the reeling Chicago Bears (4-11) in Week 17. The game features little consequence for the Bears, except perhaps for what little pride is left this year, while the game is massive for Seattle. While the tinsel settles on the Christmas season, settle on to your couch and let’s unwrap one last holiday gift: a pick on Bears-Seahawks anytime touchdown odds. This may be the only saving grace for neutral parties for this TNF tilt.
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Seahawks at Bears: Anytime Touchdown Odds
First Touchdown Odds
Bears WR Keenan Allen: Over +225 on DraftKings
In four of the last five weeks, Keenan Allen found the end zone. Four weeks ago, he found it twice. This is notable but far from a trend you should handicap ATD odds on; after all, touchdown variance is extremely difficult to predict.
So, let’s look at opportunity share instead. Opportunity share (target share) is a better measure of touchdown predictability. Over the last two games, Allen saw 26 targets, second-most in the league. In the aforementioned five-week stretch, Allen compiled 39 targets (fourth-most) at an average target depth of 11.6 yards (top-20, minimum 20 targets). At this point of the year, it’s about developing Caleb Williams. What better way than to continue to get the reliable veteran involved in the game?
Bears WR Rome Odunze: Rome Odunze +2800 on DraftKings
Target share and opportunity share are indeed excellent indicators of scoring success. But where those targets come from is just as valuable, if not more, than raw target numbers. Since Week 12, five players have 10+ targets in the red zone: Amon-Ra St. Brown (12), Jordan Addison (11), Davante Adams (11), Tee Higgins (10), and … Rome Odunze (10).
Are those targets high quality? Not particularly, as Odunze caught just four (least among those five players), but two resulted in spikes. That line indicates force-fed targets in the end zone. Coincidentally, that aligns with when Odunze’s father took to X to express his discontent with Rome’s role on the team.
The team has wholly abandoned running the ball in the red zone. Only four QBs have more red zone pass attempts than Williams since Week 12 (31).
Seahawks Defense/ST (Seattle Defense +800 on FanDuel)
Bad, meet worse. The Bears appear fully in next-season mode, highlighted by multiple blowout losses in a row (-16.7 average point margin last three weeks). This week, Chicago plays a Seattle defense that’s wildly inconsistent but also has four defensive touchdowns on the year (two interceptions and two fumble recoveries). The Seahawks rank eighth in pressure rate (23.5%) and seventh in QB knockdown rate (11%).
Rookie Caleb Williams may only have five interceptions this year, but he has 16 turnover-worthy throws. Compare that number to other QBs with similar TWP numbers:
- Jared Goff: 10 INT (TWP)
- Will Levis: 12 INT (16 TWP)
- C.J. Stroud: 12 INT (15 TWP)
- Geno Smith: 15 INT (15 TWP)
At some point, luck runs out. What happens after the ball is picked is mainly up to chance, but you couldn’t pair two teams more prone to bizarre plays.
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Seahawks at Bears: spread, moneyline, total
Check out the full slate of NFL Week 17 odds here.
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