On Wednesday, NFL Draft odds for Florida QB Anthony Richardson dove fast. The day began with Richardson’s odds to be the first overall draft pick set at 40-1 at DraftKings Sportsbook, after sitting at 100-1 for much of February. Within a few hours, that number fell as low as +750 at various domestic sportsbooks. Not long after that, some major sportsbooks – DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM – yanked their NFL Draft odds completely.
What unfolded is a lesson in weak markets and a cautionary tale from NFL Draft betting this year, especially this early in the player evaluation process. The NFL is the sportsbook’s crown jewel and the most bet-on league in the USA. But turns out, information-based markets like the draft are fragile with low limits. It doesn’t take much money to drastically move odds, even if the source of the information is pure speculation.
So what caused this drastic shift in the market for Anthony Richardson?
Why Did Anthony Richardson NFL Draft Odds Plummet?
Betting Twitter erupting Wednesday afternoon after seeing sportsbooks slash their prices on Richardson to be drafted first overall. A clear longshot all of a sudden jumped players like Kentucky’s Will Levis and Alabama’s Will Anderson. Both Levis and Anderson are understood to be viable choices for that No. 1 overall pick, which is currently held by the Chicago Bears (who may or may not trade the pick to a QB-needy team).
Gambling Twitter began to throw out the nonsensical “Vegas knows” line we often hear in situations like this. But when it comes to the NFL Draft, the sportsbooks often know less. “In general, our draft markets are going to be a lot lower limits. It stems from that fact that information gets provided equally at this point,” BetMGM sports trader Christian Cipollini told TheLines.com on the Behind The Lines Podcast. “A lot of times it is rumors that are talked around.” And when people bet those rumors into low-limit markets, odds change quickly.
Just hours after Richardson was a 40-1 longshot, some sportsbooks pulled their No. 1 pick betting markets entirely. Was it legitimate information, even before the NFL Combine, or a rumor run wild?
Perhaps a team interested in Richardson was finalizing a deal to secure the first overall pick. Perhaps a team no one saw coming? Or maybe it was due to an NFL executive proclaiming his love for Richardson and donning him a potential first overall pick. At the very least it was an Adam Schefter or Ian Rapoport report, right?
Wrong.
What Caused The Odds Movement?
Turns out, it was none of those things that moved Anthony Richardson NFL Draft odds Wednesday. A CBS mock draft from writer Chris Trapasso seems to have been the culprit. Trapasso dropped his latest mock Wednesday afternoon, featuring a massive shakeup in the QB landscape. He featured the Indianapolis Colts trading up to first – a team strongly favored to do so – and drafting none other than Anthony Richardson.
Why did Trapasso do this? Did he have insider information, or was this just his own personal hot take? “He’s going to blow the roof off Lucas Oil Stadium at the NFL Combine, and there’s just going to be such a stark difference between Anthony Richardson as a physical and athletic specimen and Bryce Young,” Trapasso told the Zach Gelb show.
Perhaps, Trapasso’s prediction comes true. But at this juncture, the massive odds movement was clearly not based on any tangible information about a team’s opinion of Richardson. The NFL Combine has not even taken place, and Richardson’s odds plummeted based on this one writer’s hot take.
Mock drafts certainly can change the landscape of the betting market and provide real insight into player-team connections *if* the player landing spots are based on insider information from team or league sources. Trapasso’s logic behind Richardson is interesting, but driven from pure speculation.
From an entertainment standpoint, there’s a lot of interesting moves in the mock. But none of them are driven from reports, connections, or –frankly – actionable betting information.
In the past, Trapasso posted the 204th, 65th, and 419th in mock draft accuracy, according to the NFL Mock Draft Database. He is drumming up conversation about the draft. He’s clearly accomplished that goal, but this is not an instance where a bet is backed by reliable intel.
We’ve Seen This Before
Richardson really is just the next in a long line of NFL draft longshots to see their odds to be picked first overall cut so quickly. Last year, Panthers tackle Ikem Ekwonu fell from 100-1 to 5-1 in less than 24 hours to be the No. 1 overall pick. Ekwonu turned out to be the first offensive tackle off the board, but at No. 6 overall. The reports came in late, closer to Round 1 starting, and plenty of bettors took the bait.
As we found out after the draft, the Jaguars front office was focused on the defensive line over the offensive line. But at least that market movement came well after the NFL Combine and player evaluation process, unlike this instance with Richardson.
A Lesson In Market Fragility
The bottom line is Anthony Richardson could still be drafted first overall. We’re not saying there is a 0% chance. The odds movement could be completely correct and, yet, the process of betting it was dead wrong. The books are going to adjust odds to limit their liability when they receive a bunch of bets on the same player at long odds. It should be noted whatever money books took on Richardson, it still didn’t change Bryce Young from being favored over the field with a greater than 50% implied probability to be the No. 1 pick.
CBS is a well-sourced industry leader in NFL coverage, but they have a lot of writers creating mock drafts that are trying to get your attention. Reports stemming from CBS carry a certain amount of legitimacy for fans, because “CBS” is on it. It’s fun conversation, but not necessarily reliable predictions. There are countless other “CBS” mock drafts that do not have Richardson going No. 1 overall. I venture to guess the rest of them do not.
Bettors who thought to rush to the ticket counter after reading Trapasso’s mock draft or tweets about Richardson’s odds moving threw sportsbooks for a loop. Low-limit max bets successfully moved the market and crashed Richardson’s draft odds.
However, a 40-1 flier differs wildly from an 8-1 flier. Rather than chase the steam at much worse odds, bettors would be wise to wait on actionable information.
Otherwise, you’re stuck with a ticket at bad odds bought on false, misplaced hope.
How Did Anthony Richardson’s Draft Odds Affect Other Players?
In theory, bumping Richardon’s odds to be picked first overall from an implied probability of 2.44% to 11.76% requires roughly a 9.5% adjustment in implied odds to the other players. Levis saw his odds drop slightly from +750 to +850 (a 1.2% decrease in implied probability) and Ohio State QB CJ Stroud saw a minor tweak to his number. But nowhere near the 9.5% expected change. No. 1 overall favorite Bryce Young‘s odds didn’t budge.
What this did was open opportunity in an imperfect market. As oddsmakers scrambled to even out the futures board, mistakes and inefficiencies were left behind. Should any bettor have caught this during the frenzy, they got some good value on players not named Anthony Richardson.
Though the window was small, opportunity for bettors existed.
This may not be the last time we see a market-breaking event happen with the NFL Draft. Bettors would be wise to monitor markets and capitalize on potential overreactions in the space. Ask yourselves four questions:
- What is the source of the information that is moving this prospect’s odds?
- Is that information news that’s being reported from league sources or just NFL Draft content?
- If it is reliable reporting, which sportsbooks haven’t adjusted their odds yet?
- If it is just NFL Draft content, which sportsbooks may have incorrectly adjusted other players’ odds in the market?
Best of luck with your 2023 NFL Draft betting.
