The American Express 2025 Preview: Everything You Need To Know About PGA West

It’s another week of golf action on the PGA Tour. The next stop is the 2025 American Express at PGA West. Find American Express odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, and Sungjae Im are the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.
Jan. 13 update: Xander Schauffle dropped out of the event and will not compete.
The PGA Tour heads east to PGA West for the first event of the season on the continental U.S., the 2025 American Express. The pro-am format returns, and the three-course rotation between the Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club will continue.
This isn’t my favorite event on the schedule. A variety of courses isn’t always bad, but when there are different flavors of the same birdie-fest, it’s hard for me to get excited. The absence of ShotLink data on 50% of rounds played adds a layer of randomness, making it more challenging to handicap players who suit the course accurately.
At PGA West, the rough is essentially nonexistent on all three courses. Outside of the water hazards — which come into play on about one-third of the holes — there are very few hazards to offer resistance from tee to green. Unlike last week’s sub-7,200-yard setup, there is little reward for position off the tee at PGA West’s courses. Instead, we’ll look to zero in on players who thrived in other birdie fests, comp conditions, and similar pro-am setups.
Let’s dive into the storylines and stats that most matter in 2025 American Express odds.
2025 OPENING American Express ODDS: THE FAVORITES
You’ll find players with odds shorter than 20-1 below. Scroll to the bottom to compare complete outright odds at major sportsbooks in your state.
Teams
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J. Thomas
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S. IM
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S. Burns
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P. Cantlay
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THE FIELD AT A GLANCE
We tend not to expect elite names to appear in droves at a birdie-fest, let alone one laden with amateurs and six-hour daily rounds. Despite The AmEx’s modest purse this week, many of the game’s best still committed to making the trip to beautiful Coachella Valley in this full field of 156 players.
Nine OWGR top-25 players will headline the field this week, with Xander Schauffele the expected odds-on favorite. He’ll look to rebound from a debilitating TGL loss last Tuesday, but the California native will be the man to beat with T3 finishes in his previous two years here.
In addition to Shauffele, Wyndham Clark, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Tom Kim, and Tony Finau all figure to contend on one of the most manageable collections of holes on the PGA Tour.
Nick Dunlap made history at this event last year, where he became the first amateur since Phil Mickelson to win a PGA Tour event. He is back to defend his title, and he will be joined by Si Woo Kim, Andrew Landry, and Adam Long as former champions teeing it up this week.
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INTRODUCTION TO PGA WEST & THE PRO-AM FORMAT
The American Express is the year’s first event of the season to feature a pro-am setup. That format is in place throughout the first three days of this tournament. Each pro pairs up with an amateur, so each foursome has two pros and two amateurs. In the three-course rotation format, about 50 pros will play the courses daily, rotating Thursday through Saturday before the 70-man, 54-hole cut. All players through the cut play the Stadium Course again on Sunday.
In this event’s early days — known as the Bob Hope Desert Classic — the pro-am was a massive draw for some of the biggest celebrities in Hollywood. Previous inclusions: Bing Crosby, Frank Sinatra, and Gerald Ford. Over time, however, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am has attracted more celebrities to its field, with fewer notable amateur names coming to The AmEx.
It also adds three critical nuances compared to a typical PGA Tour event:
- More accessible pin locations
- Slowed down green speeds
- Rounds of six-plus hours
It’s a different animal, which may explain why players like Phil Mickelson, Patrick Cantlay, and Tom Hoge have such strong histories both here and at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It’s not for everyone, but clearly, some favor this unique format.
How It Breaks Down
The courses this week share many of the same traits. Each layout is par 72, under 7,200 yards, with overseeded dormant Bermuda grass, desert-style, and very easy to score on. They mainly feature reachable par 5s and shorter par 4s.
Across the three courses, 41% of holes fall in the par 4: 350-450 range. Par-5 scoring will be crucial to keeping pace this week, as all three courses feature four reachable par 5s and a heavy concentration in the 500 to 550-yard range.
Courses Preview
The Stadium Course — played once Thursday through Saturday and again Sunday — presents the greatest challenge of the three. It’s a Pete Dye design emulating TPC Sawgrass with challenging water hazards on seven holes. Avoiding the water on the Stadium Course will be key this week, as there will be very little resistance from the other courses. Its best defense is in its par 3s, as holes on the back nine rank No. 1, 2, and 4 in scoring difficulty. They have proven decisive in crowning a champion on Sundays.
Overall, there are 10 holes at the Stadium Course with a scoring average below par. The historical scoring average is -1.33.
The La Quinta Country and Nicklaus Tournament courses are considerably more manageable. Players need to capitalize by going low on those two rounds to keep pace. Though they lack ShotLink data, both courses feature a scoring average of -2.1 and share the same concentration of short par 4s and reachable par 5s.
Check out our American Express odds page for PGA West course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past American Express winners’ pre-tournament odds.
Event HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS
We’ll sub out any “course history” terminology with “event history,” looking at players who played best across the three courses. Only half of the four rounds this week will be played at the Stadium Course, which holds all the SG data.
Looking at recent finishes, 12 players posted multiple T15 finishes over the last five years: Xander Schauffele, Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Andrew Putnam, Patrick Cantlay, J.T. Poston, Si Woo Kim, Tony Finau, Francesco Molinari, Tom Hoge, Brian Harman, Christiaan Bezuidenhout,
Here are the players who avoided missing the cut in this event over the last five years (minimum three appearances): Sungjae Im, Henrik Norlander, Andrew Putnam, Patrick Cantlay, Alex Smalley, Si Woo Kim, Tony Finau, Jason Day, Will Zalatoris, Adam Hadwin, Erik van Rooyen, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
In terms of event history, it’s Adam Hadwin who stands alone. Hadwin has yet to win this event but has found himself in contention here often with five top-six finishes in his last nine appearances. After Hadwin, the rest of the top 10 in event history rounds out with Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay, Davis Thompson, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Bud Cauley, Justin Thomas, Will Zalatoris, and Nick Dunlap.
Comp Courses
I’d be hesitant to compare PGA West to other short courses on tour. The courses at PGA West aren’t positional and don’t penalize players for missing the fairway — as long as they avoid the water on the Stadium Course.
Of the short setups on tour, the Stadium Course is most similar to Sea Island (Seaside) and TPC River Highlands. Both short courses feature persistent water hazards. From fairway to green, PGA West also draws comparisons to desert courses (TPC Summerlin, TPC Scottsdale, Summit Club) and open, second-shot birdie fests (CC of Jackson, Keene Trace GC, Monterey Peninsula).
The Stadium Course is an authentic Pete Dye design made in the image of TPC Sawgrass. Although it plays much easier, it’s definitely worth a closer look. Looking at SG: TOT over the last 36 rounds, the top 10 players in comp course history at these tracks are Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Davis Thompson, Justin Thomas, Tom Kim, Ben Griffin, Wyndham Clark, and Daniel Berger.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER FOR 2025 Amex ODDS
- SG: APP
- Birdies or better gained
- SG: TOT (easy scoring conditions)
- Par-5 scoring
- Par 4: 350-450
- Par-3 scoring
- Good drives gained
- SG: P (L36)
- Course and comp course history
The strokes gained data only tell half the story this week. As a result, we’re flying blind for two of the four rounds (La Quinta, Nicklaus Course). There’s still plenty of value in what the Stadium Course numbers tell us, but given that blind spot in data, I’m leaning on broader and overarching stats this week. These will be relevant across all four rounds.
Possible Fits
Look beyond Jon Rahm in 2023; the list of past winners suggests that driving distance doesn’t matter here. Recent wins from Si Woo Kim, Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Patrick Reed, and Brian Gay defend that case. That would usually come as no surprise, but PGA West is a collection of second-shot courses that reward players who can spike with their irons and putting. This week, the top 10 in terms of SG: APP leading are Kurt Kitayama, Xander Schauffele, Lucas Glover, Tom Hoge, Henrik Norlander, Doug Ghim, Tom Kim, Jhonattan Vegas, Justin Thomas, and J.J. Spaun.
La Quinta CC and the Nicklaus Tournament Course perennially rank in the top three most straightforward courses on tour. Rather than over-analyzing hole by hole, the best birdie-makers should take advantage of these two courses. The top 10 players in birdies or better gained are Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay, Harry Hall, Max Greyserman, Sepp Straka, Tony Finau, Jason Day, Sam Burns, Chris Kirk, and Cameron Young.
Refining this down in the simplest terms — I’m looking for elite iron players, streaky putting, and those who have proven they can go low in comparable conditions. Eleven players in the field this week rank in the top 40 in SG: APP, SG: P, birdies or better gained, SG: TOT (easy conditions), and comp course history: Sungjae Im, Harry Hall, Tony Finau, Joe Highsmith, Michael Thorbjornsen, J.J. Spaun, Si Woo Kim, Patrick Fishburn, Ben Griffin, Michael Kim, and Mac Meissner.
Correlated Stats
Since we only have historical strokes gained data from the Stadium Course, correlation charts should be taken with a grain of salt. But if you buy into the notion that if you can play well at the Stadium Course, you should also play well at the two easier courses, this may still be useful.
At the Stadium Course, we see a notable jump in the importance of par-3 scoring, specifically par 3: 0-150 yards. Though the stock yardages don’t show it, No. 4 and No. 17 can play to <150 yards when tee boxes are moved around. That makes for viable birdie opportunities in an event where birdies are the prime commodity. The top five players in par-3 scoring are Max Greyserman, Harry Hall, Matti Schmid, Davis Thompson, and Alex Smalley.
Driving distance has been more helpful than the tour average at this event, though not of paramount importance. The longer-range metrics like prox 200+ and par 4: 500+ have not correlated with success here.


Considering each of the above key categories, five players fall above average in all 10 categories at the Stadium Course: Sungjae Im, Ben Griffin, Eric Cole, Si Woo Kim, and Joe Highsmith.
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Eric Cole

The American Express is a tournament to be won exclusively with your irons and putter. In other words, a second-shot golf course. So while SG: off the tee may be the Achilles heel for the 2023 Rookie of the Year, PGA West is precisely the type of course setup that should accentuate his strengths best.
Cole is still chasing his first career PGA Tour win but has gotten himself into contention often, posting 10 top-15 finishes last season. He ranks No. 14 in my model for the 2025 American Express, a credit to his top-15 ranks in the key stats of comp course history, SG: APP, and SG: putting.
Cole is in the mix at the Sony Open this weekend and has demonstrated a solid fit at PGA West in his first two appearances, placing in the top 35 in each.
2025 american express: DFS Player Pool
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m also looking their way in the 2025 American Express odds. I’ve broken the list by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and rankings projections for Underdog Fantasy, with odds and pricing released earlier this week.

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS
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Tier 1
Xander Schauffele
Sungjae Im
Patrick Cantlay
Tony Finau
Tier 2
Brian Harman
Will Zalatoris
Sam Burns
Wyndham Clark
Si Woo Kim
Tier 3
Tom Hoge
Davis Thompson
Ben Griffin
Harry Hall
Patrick Fishburn
Eric Cole
Tier 4
Andrew Putnam
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
J.J. Spaun
Adam Hadwin
Tier 5
Henrik Norlander
Bud Cauley
Michael Thorbjornsen
Michael Kim
Joe Highsmith
Mac Meissner
Model Results & Breakdown
For my model this week, I’m prioritizing SG: APP, comp course history, BoB gained, SG: TOT (easy scoring conditions), and SG: P (L36), followed by a balanced mix of par-5 scoring, good drives gained, and par 4: 350-450 yards.
Model Favorites
A known killer in desert conditions with a rock-steady track record in birdie fests, Sungjae Im not-too-surprisingly tops my model at the 2025 American Express. Ranking in the top 10 in birdies or better gained, SG: APP, and comp course history, Sungjae remains in top form and is long overdue for his first win since 2021.
After Im, my model’s top 10 rounds out with Xander Schauffele, Sam Burns, Harry Hall, Max Greyserman, Ben Griffin, Joe Highsmith, J.J. Spaun, Tony Finau, and Matt Schmid.
The trends suggest fading the favorites and building out exposure across a broader list of longshots. However, with an uncharacteristically strong field, I’ll be open to concentrating exposure to the favorites if the value is there. I’m not opposed to betting Cantlay, Im, or Burns, but assuming their odds are too short, I am more likely to begin my card with players like Tom Hoge, Eric Cole, Ben Griffin, and Adam Hadwin.
Thanks for reading, and good luck navigating the 2025 American Express odds!
2025 American Express Odds Comparison Table
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