2023 American Express Bets: Final PGA TOUR Thoughts, Betting Card

Written By John Haslbauer on January 18, 2023
american express bets

Today is my 30th birthday and I can think of no better distraction from fleeting youth than by immersing myself in the 2023 American Express betting board. We’re off to a great start in 2023, picking up an outright win from Si Woo Kim and cashing in on a pair of placement bets to kick off the first full field event of the year. We’ll look to keep that momentum going in La Quinta, California with The American Express bets. It is set to tee off this Thursday.

Below we’ll go through my final betting card after my American Express previewClick the odds anywhere in this article to place American Express bets at the best available prices in your state now. 

HOW I BUILT MY AMERICAN EXPRESS BETTING CARD

The American Express is the mother of all putting contests with the winning score eclipsing 20-under-par in each of the last 10 years and crowning a winner with pre-tournament odds north of 200-1 in three of the last four years. Whenever handicapping for a putting contest week, I generally try to build a longer card, hedging my bets with exposure to the commodities of putting and approach upside. I love Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau this week, but ultimately opted to fade the favorites in order to allow more exposure to a wider pool of players for my betting card.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it is the same unit structure for The American Express.

  • Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • First-round leader 0.6U in to pay out 10U+
  • Props – 2.9U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the odds below for American Express bets and the best available prices across legal sportsbooks in your state.

AMERICAN EXPRESS BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Cameron Young

My Bet: +2500

Best Odds Still Available:

There is a gap between Cameron Young and the other elite players in this field, but it’s not a significant one, as he showed us on the biggest stages of his rookie season last year with two top-5 finishes in Majors. Before his ascendance into the OWGR top-20, Young showed early glimpses of promise at The American Express, where he entered Sunday just three strokes off the lead. His elite driving skillset will set him up well for ample birdie looks here, and he’s proven time and time again that he can make birdies in bunches at a putting contest.

Tom Kim

My Bet: +2500

Best Odds Still Available:

As far as buy-low spots go, this is an ideal one for Tom Kim, whose odds have doubled since last week at the Sony Open. Kim was stout from tee-to-green, gaining 4.5 strokes over his two rounds, a pace that would have ranked him No. 3 overall over a full four rounds. Unfortunately the worst putting performance of his career sunk any chances of seeing the weekend. If you’re going to buy in on a player off of a missed cut, these are the ideal circumstances, as he now gets an extra two days of prep to dial in the putter and acclimate to the Pacific time zone. He’s already picked up one win in comp desert conditions at the Shriners Open earlier this season, and I’ll bank on the rising star correcting the putting issues this time around.

Andrew Putnam

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

This number was a mistake earlier in the week, but I’m happy to have capitalized on it. Event History has proven to be fairly repeatable at Pro-Am events, as despite the volatility of the format, it still takes a certain kind of mentality to compete in slow rounds alongside non-professionals. Putnam ranks top-10 in the field in terms of SG: TOT at The AmEx, including four top-20 finishes over the last five years. He now enters this week in the best form of his career, already posting two top-5 finishes this season. That includes a T4 at last week’s Sony Open where he gained 10.5 strokes putting, an encouraging sign for the putting contest ahead.

Harris English

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

I’m buying stock in Harris English this year, as we’re starting to see a trajectory back to his 2021 Ryder Cup form while he continues to distance himself from the hip surgery that derailed his 2022 season. Over his first eight starts of the 2022-2023 season, has made seven cuts with six top-40 finishes. He looked sharp to start the Sony Open last week, just one stroke off the first round lead, and was quoted after his first round as saying he’d spent the majority of the off-season practicing out of PGA West. English’s last win came on another short Pete Dye course at the Travelers Championship, and with putting being a strength of his game, he’s more than capable of winning a birdie fest.

David Lipsky

My Bet: +11000

Best Odds Still Available:

David Lipsky is a trendy bet this week and for good reason. He impressed at the Sony Open last week, finishing T4, and ranking No. 4 in SG: APP for the week. He now brings a streak of three straight top-25 finishes into The American Express, and seems poised to improve on the T14 finish he posted in his debut here last season.

Lee Hodges

My Bet: +16000

Best Odds Still Available:

Hodges caught many golf fans’ attention for the first time at this event last year, where he posted a T3 in his debut as a rookie. Since then he’s picked up four additional top-16 finishes between the Honda Classic, 3M Open, FedEx St. Jude, and CJ Cup. It’s clear already that Hodges has a bias for shorter courses that reward precise ball striking. If he can draw from the experience of contending here last season, he has the game to contend on this set up yet again.

Matthew NeSmith

My Bet: +20000

Best Odds Still Available:

Matthew NeSmith enters this week on a stretch of three top-10 finishes over his last five starts. That not exactly the form you’d expect from a 200-1 outright, but we’ll gladly take it. His best finish over that stretch came at the Shriners Open, where he placed T2 in very similar short, desert conditions. NeSmith has continued to improve on his putting, gaining in six of his last seven events. If he keeps that up, his iron play (No. 8 SG: APP) will position him well to contend.

Callum Tarren

My Bet: +22500

Best Odds Still Available:

Callum Tarren is an ideal profile fit for what is needed at PGA West, possessing the ability to go low on an easy, open layout while also carrying a proven track record on short, positional courses which will be useful to channel over the two rounds on the Stadium Course. Tarren is the only player in this field to rank top-20 in Driving Distance, SG: APP, and SG: P, so I’ll happily take my chances at lofty 225-1 odds.

Mark Hubbard

My Bet: +30000

Best Odds Still Available:

Hubbard’s hit a bit of a wall over his last four starts this season, but he’s still not far removed from his impressive T5 showing at the Sanderson Farms. His strengths of top-tier iron play (No. 6 SG: APP) and putting (No. 30 SG: P) fit the mold of players who have contended in year’s past, so I’m comfortable taking a risk at 300-1 odds that he regresses to his longer term form on a layout well suited to his game.

Kyle Westmoreland

My Bet: +125000

Best Odds Still Available:

This is the longshot bomb of all bombs, but Westmoreland popped enough in my modeling to justify taking a chance, despite being one of the longest priced players in this field. He ranks No. 1 in Par-5 Scoring and top-5 in terms of Par-3: 0-150 and Driving Distance. His approach play has been about average this season, and with a season-best T27 at the Houston Open, I’m willing to swing for the fences on this rookie.

AMERICAN EXPRESS FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.6 UNITS)

Similar to our approach for the last rotating course set up at the RSM Classic, there is value to exploit in markets that offer the full field betting option for First Round Leader bets. La Quinta Country Club is the easiest of the three courses, creating a betting edge to stockpile exposure to players opening their first round on that course in the full field market. Out of tradition, I’ve also added Sebastian Munoz to finish as First Round Leader on the Stadium Course only.

I bet these at bet365. If you do not have a bet365 account, you can get a bet $1, get $200 in bet credits promo.

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +3000 (Stadium Course Only)

Justin Rose

My Bet: +7500 (Full Field)

Davis Riley

My Bet: +8000 (Full Field)

Matthew NeSmith

My Bet: +10000 (Full Field)

AMERICAN EXPRESS PROPS (3.0 UNITS)

Top-10 Finish: Patrick Cantlay

My Bet: +130

Best Odds Still Available:

There may have been some rust to kick off at the Sentry Tournament of Champions for Cantlay, but he has proven to be a top-10 machine at this stage of his career, having finished top-10 in six of his last eight starts. At The AmEx, he’s been even more consistent with finishes of 9, 2, and T9 over the last three years. He seems to be comfortable playing in these Pro-Ams with further success at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and it’s never been a bad idea to back Cantlay near his home on the west coast.

Top-20 Finish: Lee Hodges

My Bet: +500

Best Odds Still Available:

If Lee Hodges was capable of posting a T3 here in 2022 with no discernable form, then I’m comfortable going right back in the top-20 market on the heels of a T23 at the ZOZO Championship and T7 at the CJ Cup. Hodges can lean on his top-tier iron play to generate consistent birdie looks here, and knows what it takes to play into contention at this event already.

Top-20 Finish: Callum Tarren

My Bet: +600

Best Odds Still Available:

I love the course fir for Tarren and disagree with the long evaluation sportsbooks are placing on him here, so I’ll happily jump on the value of these top-20 odds. Tarren continues to fine tune his skillsets, improving from a pure bomber to a well-rounded ball-striker who now ranks No. 10 in SG: APP over his last 36 rounds. Riding high off of a T2 at the RSM Classic in his last start, I have high expectations for Tarren to continue to rise up the OWGR ranks this season.

Top-40 Finish: Kyle Westmoreland

My Bet: +650

Best Odds Still Available:

Westmoreland has already posted a top-40 finish this season in more challenging conditions at the Houston Open, so I don’t think his price at the very bottom of the odds board is justified. He’s gained strokes on approach in each of his last four starts. Ranking No. 1 in Par-5 Scoring, he’s a dependable birdie maker too. Feasting on the par-5s may be all it takes to make a top-40 push here, so I’ll take my chances on the long odds.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Andrew Putnam

Andrew Putnam checks the trifecta of recent form, course history, and appropriate player tier that I’m looking for in One And Done. With The American Express not being an Elevated Event, and one highly susceptible to volatility, this is not a spot I want to “waste” one of the elite players at the top of this field. Instead, I’m looking to Putnam who has better history at this event than any other on the schedule and remains hot with three top-12 finishes already this 2023 season.

If not Putnam, I would also consider Si Woo Kim, Cam Davis, or Brian Harman to kick off the OAD season.

AMERICAN EXPRESS: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s American Express bets. Best of luck this week with your own American Express bets, and see you on Sunday for the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.

AMERICAN EXPRESS BETS: ODDS TO WIN THE AMERICAN EXPRESS

Compare odds across sportsbooks in your state, and click any of the odds below to bet now.

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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