Amen Thompson's Breakout Could Fuel Rockets' High-Value Championship Odds

The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the season as clear favorites to repeat as NBA champions. They’re deep, balanced, and built for the long run. After last year’s championship, the market sees them as the team to beat.

But before the Fred VanVleet injury, the Houston Rockets were one of the only teams in the Western Conference built to stand in their way. Houston wasn’t just good — it was perfectly structured to match Oklahoma City head-to-head, both in roster composition and style of play.

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That’s what makes VanVleet’s season-ending ACL tear such a betting story. He wasn’t just another starter — he was the Rockets’ veteran stabilizer, a proven playoff riser who brought leadership and control to a roster loaded with young talent. Oddsmakers didn’t hesitate. Within hours of the news, Houston’s futures odds dipped across the board: their championship odds lengthened, their Western Conference odds slid and their projected win total took a hit.

But here’s where things get interesting. The market may have overreacted. With VanVleet out, the natural question became: who runs the show now?

Reed Sheppard, last year’s top-three pick, was the immediate answer. He’ll get real minutes and a chance to grow. But the idea that a second-year guard can step in and fill VanVleet’s shoes right away might be a stretch. That’s not a knock on Sheppard, it’s just the reality of the position. Running point for a contender isn’t easy.

And that’s why Amen Thompson is the key name bettors should be watching.

Thompson’s breakout potential has been one of the league’s worst-kept secrets. NBA GMs recently voted him the player most likely to have a breakout season, and for good reason. At just 22 years old, he’s already one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball — long, athletic, disruptive — and his playmaking has taken a major step forward. He has the ball-handling, court vision and pace control to anchor an offense and make the right reads.

Now he’s going to have every opportunity to do it. With VanVleet gone, Thompson’s usage is going to spike. He’ll initiate offense, run transition and guard the opposing team’s best player on a nightly basis. He’s going to have the ball in his hands constantly, and that’s where breakout seasons happen.

From a betting standpoint, this is where you find value. Houston’s odds have already adjusted and most sportsbooks now list the Rockets win at around +1000 to win the Western Conference and +1700 to win the title, depending on the book. That’s a dip from where they were before the VanVleet injury. But if Thompson pops, and the GMs around the league are right about him, those lines won’t last long.

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The same logic applies to player markets. Thompson is already the favorite to win the NBA's Most Improved Player Award, and if Houston stays near the top of the West without VanVleet, that line could be cut in half by December. He’s also a long-shot All-Star candidate who could easily force his way into that conversation if his numbers jump the way they’re expected to.

So while most bettors immediately downgraded Houston’s futures, the smarter play might be to view this as a buy-low window. The Rockets still have Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and enough depth to remain a top-four team in the West. They still have elite defenders, spacing, and size. What they lost in VanVleet’s experience, they might replace with Thompson’s explosion.

The bottom line is that sportsbooks moved quickly on Houston’s injury news, but maybe a little too quickly. If Amen Thompson becomes the player he looks poised to be — a two-way star who could realistically finish the season as a top-25 player — those “downgraded” odds will flip back fast.

The VanVleet injury hurt, but for bettors willing to look beyond the headline, it might have just opened one of the most undervalued windows of the preseason.