Alternate NFL Win Totals: Which Teams Could Go Way Over or Under?
NFL win totals again give bettors a popular option for futures each season. However, a lesser-known option exists to dig a layer deeper. Alternate NFL win totals offer bigger odds. These potentially lucrative options give the opportunity to think a little bit outside the box, and use different angles than a standard thought process of, “How good will this team be in 2023?” In essence, we want to think about where each team’s floor and ceiling is, and how likely that team is to actualize that outcome.
Here, we’ll look at NFL win totals for every team through the lens of Caesars Sportsbook‘s alternate numbers. I’ll offer a few teams I see as potential alt plays on each side of the ledger (over or under). Keep in mind I’m not necessarily betting all of these, but I at least see a compelling case. Those I do bet will be posted in TheLines.com’s free Discord channel under staff-fball-bets. Get notifications to your Discord app by going to the roles server.
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Possible Over Bets On Alternate NFL Win Totals
Last year, one of my favorite preseason bets was on Denver Broncos alternate under. It came home easily, and we’ll see if we can dig up any similar gems.
Note that in the interest of space efficiency, I’ve moved the full table of alternate NFL win total numbers to the bottom of the article. Reference the numbers there for each team discussed.
Carolina Panthers Over 9.5 (+360)
One thing I like to look at in these cases is how many “coin flip” games exist on a team’s schedule. We can roughly define these as game where the look-ahead line opened between +2.5 and -2.5. The Panthers have a large number of swing games with 11, so that bodes favorably for betting alternate NFL win totals.
Furthermore, Carolina has one of the bigger error bars at QB, set to start a talented rookie in Bryce Young. Should Young perform well, he has a solid roster around him, including a decent offensive line and a defense loaded with high recent draft picks.
And Carolina has a coach in Frank Reich whom I thought made a real difference in Indianapolis and was let go in a short-sighted move.
Cleveland Browns Over 11.5 (+375)
Cleveland continues the theme of these overs: good roster with a major question mark at QB.
Few if any teams have more talented defenses than the Browns. They’re loaded with speed and pass rush weapons up front between Myles Garrett, a declining but still effective Za’Darius Smith and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. The secondary looks menacing and the addition of Juan Thornhill will help. Stopping straight ahead runs proved their downfall last year, but perhaps experienced coordinator Jim Schwartz can help shore that up.
Cleveland really shouldn’t even need a dynamite offense, but they could potentially have one. The offensive line remains elite and receiving corps has more depth and talent with the additions of Elijah Moore and rookie third-rounder Cedric Tillman.
It all comes down to Deshaun Watson. He stunk up the joint last year in a long-anticipated (and reviled) return from more than a year away. If he returns to the form that had him in All-Pro discussions, then the Browns become a legit contender even in Super Bowl odds. Betting on longer shots like this in alternate NFL win totals just fits better with this team’s potential range of outcomes than something more vanilla like a normal over.
Green Bay Packers Over 9.5 (+240)
Again, the Packers have plenty of talent on the roster to support a QB with a wide range of outcomes.
In Green Bay’s case, they have a very strong offensive line, a young but fairly talented trio of WRs, and a very good pairing at RB. Tight end could be an issue but also could be a boon if either of the two highly-drafted rookies hits.
Much like Cleveland, the defense couldn’t stop the run in 2022. Disappointingly, they opted not to make a change at coordinator, but there is still a ton of talent here. The safety play could be a problem, but Jaire Alexander brings an elite presence at corner and his understudies have talent as well. A big swing will come from what Rashan Gary brings to the table. The EDGE appeared to break out into an elite performer but tore his ACL about halfway through the season.
QB Jordan Love has a first-round pedigree and showed flashes that perhaps the light had come on in brief relief appearances last season. Prior to that, he’d looked dreadful in both spot and preseason duty. If Love has truly turned a corner, he has a good roster around him and gets to play in a weak division.
The Packers’ schedule also includes 11 coin flips. Furthermore, every game opened with a line shorter than seven, even tilts with Kansas City and Philly, since both come to Green Bay.
Tennessee Titans Over 9.5 (+340)
The Titans do not fit with the rest of this list in the sense that they have stability at QB, and stability that comes in a pretty predictable package. Ryan Tannehill should provide solid, above-average play. He’ll have a terrible offensive line in front of him and a decent but exceptionally thin group of pass catchers. That’s a situation in which he’s used to operating.
Overall, the Titans could put together a league-average offense if they are blessed with good health.
The combination of a potentially good defense and a highly fluid division is what creates upward mobility here.
Last year, stopping the pass was a major problem. But, the Titans dealt with an incredibly number of injuries in the secondary. They have talent there, having spent a number of recent high draft picks. CB Sean Murphy-Bunting should be a helpful addition. A talented pass rush and an elite safety in Kevin Byard will provide some cover here.
Importantly, the rest of the division has plenty of potential downside. Both the Colts and Texans are pairing first-year coaches with rookie quarterbacks. And presumptive favorite Jacksonville has major question marks along the offensive line and in the secondary.
With eight coin flips on the schedule, the Titans winning 10 games might not be as crazy as it sounds. This price is also extremely favorable compared to +250 being offered elsewhere.
Possible Under Bets On Alternate NFL Win Totals
LA Chargers Under 7.5 (+260)
Yes, the Chargers have a great QB and a very good all-around offense. They are presumably bringing in a coordinator in Kellen Moore who has a better plan than to use his 6-foot-6 rocket-armed QB for an endless series of five-yard dump-offs.
All of that is well and good. It should work out fine in a scenario where the Chargers’ most important players stay upright.
However, what if they don’t? Sure, you could say that about any team. But this is the Chargers, perhaps the most consistently injury-ravaged team of the past five years. And once you get past the starters, the Chargers don’t have above-average depth at a single position.
That includes QB, by the way, where Justin Herbert has not missed many games but notably played through injury last year. Easton Stick and Max Duggan do not look like high-quality replacements.
Yes, the Chargers could compete for the Super Bowl with good health. But they also possess very real downside risk and have 12 coin flip games on the schedule.
Las Vegas Raiders Under 5 (+180)
Covered in depth here. The cliff notes: Jimmy Garoppolo can’t stay healthy, appearing in 51 games across five full seasons in San Francisco. He’s now playing on a worse team, behind a weaker offensive line, with a far less capable head coach. And 37-year-old Brian Hoyer is slated to be his primary backup.
The Raiders will likely also throw in the towel and tank for a franchise QB if Garoppolo gets hurt or things go otherwise awry.
Note, however, that betting multiple alternate unders in the same division carries some additional danger of betting against yourself.
Indianapolis Colts Under 4.5 (+300)
The Colts have completely made over their team, and they could be very bad in 2023.
A once great offensive line has degraded to merely solid. At least, it still looks like that on paper after ranking dead last in pass block win rate last year. Their most explosive weapon, RB Jonathan Taylor is holding out. The pass catchers are largely terrible. And a rookie QB/head coach combo will direct things. It’s possible (likely?) that their best passer (Gardner Minshew) will begin the season on the bench.
The situation doesn’t look a whole lot better on defense. Coordinator Gus Bradley utilizes a cover-3 scheme that has largely gone out of favor in today’s NFL. It worked best with elite secondary pieces in Seattle but the Colts have … a distinct lack of those. In fact, the secondary looks quite lacking after trading away old but rock solid CB Stephon Gilmore.
Anthony Richardson, a young and very raw QB, potentially being placed in must-pass situations because his secondary can’t stop opposing passing games looks like a combustible combo.
LA Rams Under 4.5 (+260)
I don’t think I need to go into a whole lot of detail here. We know what the Rams’ downside looks like because they showcased it in last year’s 5-12 fall from grace. Only, all of the same key pieces that held the roster together are either a year older (Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald) or traded away (Jalen Ramsey).
And what’s left over has gotten much worse. Particularly on defense, the Rams’ starters read like another team’s second unit.
On offense, Kupp remains the team’s only above-par pass catcher. A rookie guard was the only notable addition to a line that got Stafford killed last year. And while Stafford has proven durable over his career, he has had a ton of injuries that limited him, and the damage may be catching up to him.
His backups: fourth-round rookie Stetson Bennett (who was favored to go undrafted) and Brett Rypien, who was abysmal any time the Broncos needed him to step in.
The Rams also open the season with four difficult opponents in their first five weeks: at Seattle, vs. San Francisco, at Cincinnati and vs. Philadelphia.
Tampa Bay Bucs Under 4.5 (+260)
On the surface this one seem a bit harsh. Sure, not much is expected of the Bucs. But, a lot of talent still remains from a team that won a Super Bowl in the not so distant memory. That sort of talent base can usually fortify against the bottom falling out.
However, like the Chargers, much depends on the health of the starters, particularly on defense and at QB.
While the defense looks solid on paper, the backups are pretty much unproven across the board.
On offense, the retooled line looks like it could be a major weakness. Tristan Wirfs has reportedly struggled in transitioning to left tackle. The only other likely starter one would rate as plus is Ryan Jensen, and he’s entering his age-32 season having missed the entire 2022 campaign.
And if the unit doesn’t mesh quickly, it opens the door for a Baker Mayfield injury. He hasn’t had a healthy season since 2020. If backup Kyle Trask had any potential, we’d have likely seen him take more than a token snap by now.
Much like the Raiders, Tampa looks like a prime candidate to tank down the stretch for a franchise QB as well. And the team has been poorly coached since Bruce Arians left.
NFL Alternate Win Totals, Full 2023 List
The first price listed corresponds to the over in each case. For example, Cardinals 2.5 wins would be -450 for the over and +350 for the under. In the case of Cincinnati, DraftKings’ number was used as Caesars has opted to freeze the Bengals’ alt markets after the Joe Burrow injury.
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