College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions Friday: No. 2 Alabama At No. 13 Purdue
Alabama men’s basketball battles Purdue at Mackey Arena on Friday, Nov. 15. Both teams land in the top 15 of media polls and my college basketball power rankings. The Crimson Tide are Alabama Crimson Tide -3.5 (-112) on FanDuel favorites. Elsewhere, the total is stationed at 165 (-112) on DraftKings. Let’s analyze the Alabama at Purdue odds board to determine whether there is any value.
Click any odds below to place a bet. You can also scan the best sportsbook promos from the best sports betting sites.
alabama at Purdue odds: spread, moneyline, total
Will Alabama’s Shooting Regress?
The Crimson Tide are familiar with perimeter variance. From the start of last season through Jan. 31, they shot 38.8% from behind the arc. Their efficiency dipped six full percentage points between Feb. 3 and the NCAA tournament before regaining their 3-point prowess during their run as underdogs among March Madness odds.
Rocky times have resurfaced in Tuscaloosa, Ala. Nate Oats’ unit has generated a 30.1% clip in its first three games. Beyond veteran Mark Sears (42.9%), inconsistency is the name of the game. According to Synergy, Alabama isn’t necessarily unlucky, hitting 40.6% of its unguarded catch-and-shoot looks. Conversely, it’s shooting 24.2% on guarded jumpers.
It’s unlikely the Tide would’ve advanced to the Final Four without 6-foot-11 sophomore Jarin Stevenson, connecting on 5-of-8 attempts from downtown in the Elite Eight. Nevertheless, Stevenson has yet to make the “leap” from his freshman campaign, heavily contributing to their 3-point woes.
In theory, Alabama could undergo some positive regression at Purdue, which has historically struggled to defend ball-screen action. However, I’d have more confidence if Sears and Co. weren’t vying to reverse course in a difficult road environment.
Subscribe to The Lines’ podcast on Apple or Spotify for an in-depth preview of this weekend’s college basketball slate!
Purdue Enters Uncharted Territory
Over the last six seasons, the Boilermakers have delivered a top-40 offensive rebounding rate. Much of their success revolved around big men Zach Edey and Trevion Williams.
This trend should end in 2024-25, failing to generate consistent second-chance opportunities against Yale, Northern Kentucky, and Texas A&M Corpus Christi. As well as junior point guard Braden Smith has performed, ranking seventh in KenPom’s Player of the Year ratings, Purdue’s chances of knocking off Alabama hinge upon its proficiency on the glass.
Powered by Rutgers transfer Clifford Omoruyi, the Tide own a top-80 rebounding clip on each side of the court.
College Basketball Projections
My raw numbers give the Boilermakers a small edge (+1.5) juxtaposed with the opening line of +2. Given the concerns at both ends, I would not rush to the window to place a wager. Instead, bettors should explore living betting odds, with the potential for many runs if these teams catch fire from the perimeter. Good luck with your bets on Alabama vs. Purdue odds!
- Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord — with over 5,000 community members and our staff sharing bets daily.
Latest College Basketball News
Related Content
RELATED ARTICLES
