Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Published at March 28, 2025
Even a record-setting three-point barrage from Alabama can barely dent Duke's March Madness odds. The Blue Devils are favorites, quite a hefty number for a No. 1 vs No. 2 matchup. But that's the state of things when you have a dominant team with the sport's consensus best player. What do Cooper Flagg props say about his likely outcomes versus the Crimson Tide?
Alabama presents the stiffest challenge Duke has faced in the NCAA tournament. The Crimson Tide set a tournament record with a 25-for-51 shooting performance from deep in demolishing BYU.
Will Duke finally face some adversity? The Blue Devils have cruised through the tournament thus far, although Arizona made them earn it. The Wildcats hung around for a half before Duke pulled away for a reasonably comfortable win in the second half.
Alabama has KenPom's No. 4 offense. According to Torvik's numbers, they take 3s at a top-40 rate and shoot them pretty well (35.6%). Combine that with the No. 1 adjusted tempo, and the variance the Crimson Tide brings could be Duke's undoing.
Cooper Flagg Props: Hit The Overs Again?
After starting his March Madness without any need for a big performance -- Duke was a massive favorite in its first two games -- Flagg turned up against Arizona. He posted a monstrous 30-6-7 line, three blocks, and one steal.
Is it time for another statement game?
Well, Alabama's combination of pace and 3-point shooting prowess has the total sky-high at . Alabama has a solid defense (27th in KenPom), but the sheer volume of opportunities afforded to Flagg by the matchup points to looking to his overs.
How much of that is baked into the numbers, though? Certainly, Flagg's points prop has been inflated a bit. At 23.5, it's a couple of buckets higher than his per-game average.
His rebounds and assists, however, don't seem to be affected as much. As long as Flagg avoids foul trouble against Alabama's potent offense, he's got a good shot to go over these figures. Waiting on a possible steals market could pay off as well. Per Torvik, Alabama has middling ball security (140th in adjusted turnover rate). Flagg will have another chance to pile up some "stocks" in this one.
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