AL Wild Card Odds, Picks, Predictions: Tigers At Astros, Royals At Orioles
With the 2024 MLB postseason almost underway, let’s examine my picks for the AL Wild Card Series odds. Both matchups, involving the Astros against the Tigers and Orioles against the Royals, commence on Tuesday. They also feature significant injuries. You’ll find a full breakdown of each one below. Check out TheLines.com’s podcast preview for these series here.
Click any odds below to place a bet, and you’ll be eligible to register for the best MLB promo codes! At the bottom of each series, I’ll add any wagers I’ve made.
astros vs. tigers: game 1 & series odds
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Overcoming One-Run ‘Luck’
Although Houston has a streak of reaching the ALCS in seven consecutive seasons, Detroit’s run to the playoffs is even more noteworthy. According to FanGraphs, the Tigers had a playoff probability of 0.2% on Aug. 11 before going on a 31-13 run over the final 44 games.
However, recent history regarding positive variance isn’t on their side. Detroit has played an MLB-most 55 games decided by one run. The Tigers also tallied a league-high 37 wins in these situations. The Marlins, Brewers, and Orioles paced baseball in this category last season before they were swept in the wild-card round.
Touting dominant starting pitching and an elite bullpen does not always correlate with postseason success. Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, the eventual Cy Young award winner, will oppose fellow southpaw Framber Valdez in Game 1. Moreover, Detroit owns the third-best bullpen ERA (2.40) and seventh-lowest FIP (3.24) over the last month.
Conversely, the Astros mashed left-handed pitching in the second half, producing a top-five wOBA (.338) and wRC+ (123). But the status of slugger Yordan Alvarez, who will reportedly take batting practice at Monday’s workout, is unknown.
Alvarez hit .308 with 35 homers, 86 RBIs, and a .959 OPS while finishing deadlocked with Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. for the fourth-highest fWAR among position players. He suffered a sprained right knee when he slid into second base on Sept. 22 in Houston and missed the rest of the regular season.
Bets For AL Wild-Card Odds
For the time being, I’m sitting out this series. Mo Nuwarrah, my podcast co-host, said he would bet on the Astros’ series price if it loses Game 1.
Related: Brewers vs. Mets Game 1 Pick
orioles vs. royals: game 1 & series odds
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Royal Rebound?
Like the first set of AL wild-card odds, the headline-worthy Orioles aren’t nearly as fascinating as their opponent. Kansas City’s home/road splits catch the eye, owning the 12th-best wOBA at Kauffman Stadium while tying with the Guardians for the ninth-lowest away from home.
Additionally, the Royals’ lack of depth is evident after first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino went down with a thumb injury. Since Pasquantino’s absence began on Aug. 30, the Kansas City offense has ranked last in the majors in every slash line category.
Kansas City reportedly expects Pasquantino (thumb) to hit in the cage on Monday. The team will see how he feels on Tuesday before determining if he’ll be included on the wild-card roster.
Another concern is whether the Royals’ starting staff can keep the Orioles’ bats at bay. Baltimore has accrued the highest ISO across MLB, clubbing the second-most home runs behind Atlanta. That may be problematic for Royals starters Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, two pitch-to-contact arms positioned to start in Game 2 and a potential Game 3.
The Orioles’ lineup could carry them into the division series after they were swept by the World Series champion Rangers last season. Nevertheless, the Royals have some advantages in Game 1 for these AL wild-card odds.
Lefty Cole Ragans, who boasts a 3.14 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 186.1 innings, will start the series opener. Per my numbers, Ragans is undervalued against veteran Corbin Burnes, who showcases a 2.92 ERA despite his 3.55 FIP. Kansas City owns the league’s best defense (via Statcast’s OAA metric) and an improved bullpen, sporting a 2.72 FIP over the last month.
Bets For AL Wild-Card Odds
I may bet on Kansas City to win Game 1, assuming we get word that Pasquantino is near full health. Bookmark this article to stay updated on potential bets for AL wild-card odds.
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