2025 AFC Championship Opening Odds: Chiefs vs. Bills Spread, Moneyline, Total

, ,
Written By Juan Carlos Blanco | Last Updated
AFC Championship Opening Odds

The AFC championship game is set, and it shapes up as another chapter in the epic postseason story of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. The two quarterbacks will meet for the fourth time in a playoff setting, but only the second time with the conference title on the line.

The Lines offers a first-look preview of the game, along with opening odds from top sportsbooks.

Conference Championship odds: Spreads, moneylines, totals

AFC championship opening odds: Spread, moneyline, total

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City ChiefsChiefs -1.5Bills +105
Chiefs -120
47.5

AFC Championship analysis 

Buffalo Bills (+1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

Another January, another instance where Patrick Mahomes stands in the way of Josh Allen’s quest to play for the Lombardi Trophy. Buffalo ensured that was the case by following up the Chiefs’ divisional-round win over the Texans on Saturday with its own hard-earned victory against the Ravens on Sunday evening. Allen and Co. will be looking to bring some juxtaposition to the recent pattern in the series between the two teams. While the Bills have beaten the Chiefs in four consecutive regular-season meetings, including three straight at Arrowhead, they’ve lost each of the last three postseason clashes, including the last two by a total of nine points. 

The Chiefs’ aforementioned 23-14 win over the Texans in their divisional-round matchup Saturday was also Andy Reid’s 300th overall. Mahomes essentially only needed “playoff” Travis Kelce, a sprinkle of Xavier Worthy and a solid defensive effort to get over the hump, as he didn’t complete a single pass to the trio of DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. He’s much more likely to need all hands on deck against Buffalo’s potent offense, however, particularly given the fact that the Bills picked him off and sacked him twice apiece while limiting him to 196 yards in a Week 11 win at Highmark Stadium. 

The Bills are 2-2 ATS as road underdogs since the start of the regular season and 5-7 against the number in playoff games overall since Josh Allen became a full-time starter in 2019. Buffalo’s playoff losses to Kansas City in the Allen-Mahomes era have come by a total of 23 points, with the largest having come by 14 in January 2021.

The Chiefs are 13-6 ATS in playoff games since Patrick Mahomes became a full-time starter in 2018, but they’re only 3-6 against the number as home favorites since the start of the regular season.

The AFC title game has opened with an over/under of 47.5 points. 

RELATED ARTICLES