ACC Tournament Odds, Picks, Predictions: Why I Bet Clemson Over Duke & North Carolina
The 2024 Atlantic Coast Conference men's basketball tournament tips off Tuesday in Washington, D.C. The victor will earn an automatic berth, perhaps with a bid stealer keeping its March Madness odds alive. Let's handicap and analyze the best championship picks for ACC tournament odds. Remember that Duke and North Carolina — both favored to win at different sportsbooks as of this publishing — won't play until Thursday's quarterfinals. Read on for how I'm betting on this conference tournament.
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2024 ACC Tournament Odds
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ACC betting tips: the favorites
The best ACC Tournament odds for Duke to win it are . North Carolina's most alluring price is .
The Tar Heels emerged victorious at Cameron Indoor as five-point underdogs on Saturday, sealing their first outright ACC regular-season title since 2017.
North Carolina boasts a veteran-laden roster, as RJ Davis, Armando Bacot, and Harrison Ingram lead the charge. Nevertheless, graduate transfer Cormac Ryan was the offensive initiator in the upset win over the arch-rival Blue Devils, accruing a game-high 31 points with six triples.
Although UNC showcases the fourth-rated adjusted defensive efficiency (per Haslametrics), its performance is slightly overstated. That's because it ranks No. 324 nationally in open 3-point attempt rate allowed. Therefore, opponents should have shot better than 30.7% from behind in the arc in ACC play.
On the flip side, Duke accrued eight wins over the last 10 games. Most of them came against subpar conference foes.
Meanwhile, road Wake Forest (see below) and offensively inept Virginia aren't much to write home about. Hence, metrics highlighting their rebounding and transition defense aren't adjusted for the opponent.
Just take UNC, which finished plus-11 on the glass and generated 19 fast-break points (94th percentile). Those same issues reared their ugly head versus Clemson, Arkansas, and Arizona.
Injuries To Monitor
Among ACC tournament odds with a first-round bye, the status of Wake Forest sharpshooter Demari Monsanto is unknown. The 6-foot-6 senior wing has only suited up in 11 games this season. Not only is Monsanto reportedly dealing with a knee injury, but he was also a no-show for the Demon Deacons' senior night, making his presence a major question mark.
Remember that Wake Forest displays stark home-road splits, going 16-1 straight up with a 41.8% 3-point clip in Winston-Salem, N.C. — juxtaposed to a 3-10 record while shooting 32.7% from downtown in road and neutral site games.
Elsewhere, Virginia Tech center Lynn Kidd sat out Saturday's win over with a hamstring injury. Kidd delivers a team-high 6.6 rebounds per game and is an efficient post-up scorer. His absence would be a costly development in the quarterfinals versus Florida State.
As for longshot ACC tournament odds, Miami (FL) guard Nijel Pack sat out Miami's last four games in February with a knee injury. Pack then re-injured it in Wednesday's home loss to Boston College before missing the regular-season finale. His availability for the opening of the ACC tournament is undetermined.
Despite Miami's uber-talented roster, its already shortened rotation can't afford to have Pack in street clothes.
Eli's ACC Tournament Pick
After betting on Clemson's Final Four odds almost a month ago, I believe the Tigers are still one of the most undervalued teams across college basketball.
Tigers coach Brad Brownell has constructed a five-out offense — centered around the do-it-all PJ Hall. At the start of ACC play, they dealt with negative 3-point variance at both ends. However, their offensive and defensive efficiency metrics rank in the 91st percentile or higher since Feb. 6. That date coincides with Jack Clark's return to the starting lineup, beginning with a road victory at North Carolina.
Clark's ability to switch onto every position has supplied Clemson with its most lethal defensive look, supporting the numbers above. Its 10-2 record with Clark in the starting five does them even more justice.
Additionally, the Tigers settle in the 24th percentile of KenPom's luck metric. It represents the deviation in winning percentage, regarding their actual and expected record.
With Clark working his way back from multiple injuries in mid-January, Clemson dropped a trio of one-possession games. A pair of them were one-point losses to Virginia and Duke, which it will presumably face on Thursday and Friday. This strand of coin-flip defeats typically indicates negative luck, especially given Clark's pronounced value.
Already well-positioned for the NCAA tournament, the Tigers clearly have a higher ceiling with Clark healthy. Don't forget about their 10-1 mark in non-conference play, including wins over Alabama, South Carolina, Boise State, and TCU.
Final Thoughts
Hopefully, you jumped on Clemson's ACC tournament odds when they opened. If not, I'd bet on the sixth-seeded Tigers at 10-1 or better. I was able to nab 15-1 on Saturday night and shared it in our Discord.
Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord and go to the #roles server to receive instant notifications whenever I place a wager. Just turn push notifications on for your Discord app. The best available odds on Clemson winning the ACC tournament are .
Pittsburgh and Wake Forest have more motivation with their NCAA tournament hopes hanging in the balance, yet my raw numbers make Clemson closer to +750, good for an 11.8% implied probability. That's a fairly significant edge at 10-1 or longer.
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ACC Tournament Bracket
Unlike Atlantic Sun tournament odds, there is no reseeding once the semifinals roll along. Sift through the official bracket below.
ACC Tournament Schedule
- First Round: Tuesday, March 12
- Second Round: Wednesday, March 13
- Quarterfinals: Thursday, March 14
- Semifinals: Friday, March 15
- Championship: Saturday, March 16
How To Watch ACC Tournament
The ACC Network will broadcast the entire first round before ESPN and ESPN2 take over the rest of the way. Saturday's title game will get underway at 8:30 p.m. EST on ESPN.
You can subscribe to the audio-only version of the show on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.
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