ACC Tournament Odds: Are Duke Blue Devils Odds Warranted?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on March 7, 2023
ACC Tournament Odds

The ACC men’s basketball tournament tips off on Tuesday, and one of 15 participants will earn an automatic bid into March Madness. We’ll take a look at all of the pertinent 2023 ACC Tournament odds, schedule, and how you can watch. It all begins on March 7, yet No. 4 seed Duke — the favorite to win the tournament — won’t take the court until Thursday.

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ACC Tournament Odds

Tournament Notes

As seen in the odds table, the Blue Devils, winners of their last six games, are +290 (courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook) to win their first conference tourney since 2019. That’s equivalent to a 26.32% implied probability. Led by former five-star freshmen Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, and Cam Reddish, this Duke team eventually fell to Michigan State in the Elite Eight.

In Jon Scheyer’s first year as the Blue Devils’ head coach, replacing Hall of Famer Mike Krzyzewski, saw the program finish with its best adjusted defensive efficiency rating since since 2019-20 (per KenPom). Their late-season run was sparked by gifting the lead guard duties to the 6-foot-5 Tyrese Proctor. It doesn’t hurt that Kyle Filipowski and Derrick Lively, two 7-foot freshmen, play alongside one another, either.

Still, there are a pair of glaring concerns for Scheyer’s offense. For starters, its perimeter scoring rate ranks No. 265 in D-I. That metric implies that opponents will utilize a matchup zone against Duke — and likely have success employing it.

The Blue Devils are also producing the second-highest turnover rate in ACC play. While Proctor delivering a more sizable presence than fellow point guard Jeremy Roach, his miscues can’t be ignored.

Combine those variables with Duke placing No. 60 in KenPom’s “luck” factor. This department showcases the deviation in winning percentage, regarding their actual record and their expected record. It incorporates the correlated gaussian method. Its close-game positive variance, going 8-3 straight up in matchups decided by six points or fewer, certainly plays a role.

Which ACC Tournament Odds To Target?

Although North Carolina (the national title favorite entering the season) will be a popular bet, requiring a deep run in the tournament to play its way into the Big Dance, its floor spacing isn’t trustworthy enough. More importantly, it’s overvalued in the betting market.

For context, the Tar Heels are +2800 to advance to the Final Four for a second straight year. That’s the same price as San Diego State. The Aztecs possess a much greater chance of reaching Houston, as they’re already locked into the field to begin with.

Virginia Tech, which accomplished this feat last season, is worth considering for an ACC tournament longshot wager. Still, I don’t trust the Hokies defensively enough — despite their bulky number.

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ACC Tournament Schedule

  • First Round: Tuesday, March 7
  • Second Round: Wednesday, March 8
  • Quarterfinals: Thursday, March 9
  • Semifinals: Friday, March 10
  • ACC Championship: Saturday, March 11

How To Watch

Every round, for ACC tournament odds, can be viewed on an ESPN channel. On March 11, the ACC tournament title game will tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Here is the rest of the conference tournament schedule.

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Browse College Basketball Odds Across Sportsbooks

Compare odds across legal sportsbooks below and click the odds to bet now. Browse March Madness odds, more conference tournament odds, and props in the dropdown menu. You can price shop with our daily college basketball odds board as well.

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Eli Hershkovich

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