AC Milan Vs. Tottenham Hotspur: 2022-23 Champions League Round Of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on February 13, 2023
Champions league odds

The UEFA Champions League round of 16 kicks off on Tuesday, Feb. 14 with AC Milan vs. Tottenham Hotspur. Bettors can catch the broadcast at 3 p.m. EST on various streaming platforms like fuboTV, Paramount+ and Univision. The winner has the edge before the two meet again in the second leg on March 8 in England. As part of TheLines‘ soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match.

AC Milan Vs. Tottenham Hotspur Champions League Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. 

If the aggregate-goal score after two legs is tied, there will be two 15-minute periods of extra time. However, it’s possible for a Champions League match to go to extra time with a Leg 2 score that was not tied. In this case, three-way moneyline bets for Leg 2 are graded for the team that leads after 90 minutes. 

If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out on the team to move on to the next round, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

AC Milan Team Preview

Although last season saw celebratory scenes at the San Siro, the current defending Serie A champions have had little to celebrate since. Champions in name but they are playing like anything but. 

With Stefano Pioli’s men being just another club blown away by Napoli on the domestic front, their focus has shifted to success on a continental level. When you look at their recent league form you can understand why. Only negative headlines have emerged of late from the red and black half of Milan.

At this point, missing out on next year’s UCL competition looks like a real possibility. That is, of course, unless they win the competition. And like upcoming opponents Tottenham, that looks like their best chance to secure an invite.

An outside chance admittedly, but this is what makes this competition so fascinating. And if manager Pioli can tap into what led his players to last year’s Serie A success, it may just offer redemption on a European front. 

Tottenham Hotspur Team Preview

There may be questions over the long-term future of Antonio Conte at Tottenham. But, that will not stop the Italian from trying to be the one man who finally breaks the club’s lengthy trophy drought. One that stands at 15 years and counting. And with only this and the FA Cup serving as the competitions where silverware can finally be snared at the end of the season, Conte may well have to do things the hard way.

Although he may not make the trip to Milan because of illness, you can guarantee he will be kicking every ball while recuperating.

Of course, it was no Conte, no problem over the weekend. Tottenham secured a hugely important win over Manchester City in the Premier League. Such success has reignited their hopes of returning to next season’s Champions League.

A top-four finish in the Premier League would secure that, but so would lifting this trophy in just a few months. After reaching the final four years ago, the club has already gotten a glimpse of the promised land.

Now, though, they must deliver on their promises and make safe passage to the last eight. With Harry Kane recently breaking the club’s record for all-time goals, he would love nothing more than to add to his burgeoning tally of 267.

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Since the UCL draws for new matchups after the round of 16, there’s no set bracket for fans to follow just yet.

AC Milan Vs. Tottenham Hotspur Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

AC Milan6127+597.3+1.7

Matchup History

Although the two teams have only met on four separate occasions, the current head-to-head record does not make for good reading for AC Milan. With the Italian outfit yet to get the better of Tottenham, they will hope for better fortunes on Valentine’s Day.

Of the four continental clashes that have taken place, Spurs have managed to win twice and avoided defeat in the others. The most recent pair of matches came in the 2011 edition of the Champions League. The North London outfit earned a 1-0 win at the San Siro.

That first leg victory set up the return tie at White Hart Lane as a tense one. If Harry Redknapp’s men could keep a clean sheet, they would be guaranteed a place in the last eight. Thankfully for Tottenham supporters of a nervous disposition, a 0-0 scoreline graced the marquee. And this meant that AC Milan was dumped out of the Champions League at the round of 16.

Could this be a precursor to future events?

AC Milan Vs. Tottenham Hotspur Champions League Odds: Bets To Consider

Tottenham To Win: +195

Even though AC Milan won last season’s Serie A title, their defense of the scudetto has been non-existent. Admittedly, Napoli has been a class apart from everyone else, but Stefano Pioli’s men currently find themselves a considerable distance from the leaders.

Not only that, but their form since the World Cup break has been borderline dreadful. A 4-0 defeat to fellow Champions League hopefuls Lazio was bad enough. A 5-2 hammering from Sassuolo was even worse.

At the time of writing, the San Siro outfit has not won any of their last five Serie A outings (Editor’s note: they did prevail 1-0 against Torino on Friday). This is the kind of form that Tottenham will be confident of worsening when the two teams meet on Tuesday.

Especially as their own recent form has taken something of an uptick. Getting the better of Manchester City in the Premier League could prove the pivotal moment of the season.

With their tails up before the upcoming trip to Milan, backing the away win at +195 offers a tremendous opportunity to earn some value in the Champions League Round of 16. And who does not enjoy a bit of that?

Over 1.5 Goals: +150

The last two meetings between AC Milan and Tottenham have generated just a single goal in 180 minutes of Champions League soccer. Then again, these two ties occurred 12 years ago.

However, there is something that can inform our decision on the total. Hugo Lloris has been ruled out of action for six weeks. Although the former French captain has been far from his best this season, his absence will still be a massive blow.

Especially as replacement Fraser Forster is not the most agile when it comes to playing between the sticks. This will give AC Milan’s attack reasons to be cheerful on Tuesday.

Then again, their defense will give Milan supporters reasons to be fearful. And when you add Harry Kane into the equation, the Tottenham captain will fancy his chances against such a porous backline.

This is why I have also opted for two or more total goals in this one. And when you consider that I have also backed the Tottenham win, a 2-1 result for the away side may also be the perfect score to tie the two bets together.

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