AC Milan Vs. Napoli: 2022-23 Champions League Quarterfinal Odds, Expected Goals

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Written By Dan Tracey | Last Updated
Champions league odds

AC Milan and Napoli continue the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals on Wednesday, April 12. The match begins at 3 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on streaming platforms including fuboTV, Paramount+ and Univision. The winner will have the edge before the second leg, which takes place April 18 in Napoli. As part of TheLines‘ soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match.

AC Milan Vs. Napoli Champions League Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. 

If the aggregate-goal score after two legs is tied, there will be two 15-minute periods of extra time. However, it’s possible for a Champions League match to go to extra time with a Leg 2 score that was not tied. In this case, three-way moneyline bets for Leg 2 are graded for the team that leads after 90 minutes. 

If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out on the team to move on to the next round, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

AC Milan Team Preview

When AC Milan was paired with Napoli in this season’s Champions League quarterfinal draw, most observers would have believed this to be something of a foregone conclusion. That was, until the two sides met recently in Italy’s Serie A.

Because with Napoli acting as the runaway league leaders, they would welcome Stefano Pioli’s men and look to take another step closer to being crowned champions of Italy. Unfortunately for the Naples-based outfit, they received the business end of a 4-0 defeat.

That result stunned people not only on domestic shores but across the continent. And although Napoli fans will offer up a certain caveat — their beloved side has certainly dropped down a gear in the league — that 4-0 reverse does tilt the balance of this upcoming tie.

After getting better of Tottenham and subsequently progressing out of this season’s round of 16,  Milan now finds themselves in the last eight for the first time in 11 years. Admittedly, the red and black half of the city will be considered one of the true underdogs when it comes to outright victory in 2023. But like Napoli, they will take pleasure in how the bracket from here to the final has formed.

A week or so ago, Napoli would have been the clear choice for bettors and sportsbooks alike. Now though, that impressive showing just a week or so ago may see a few more wagers go in the direction of Milan. 

Napoli Team Preview

When you look at the names truly considered members of Europe’s elite, you would not find Napoli as a card-carrying member of the club. However, with the way they have played this season, they may soon gatecrash the party.

No doubt, Luciano Spaletti’s men have been the most exciting team to watch this season. And with a first Serie A title in more than 30 years all but secured, the time has come to conquer the continent.

One also gets the feeling that this could be Napoli’s one and only opportunity to truly break European soccer’s glass ceiling. If they fall short in 2023, this team may begin to fall apart. With the likes of Victor Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia rising in stature with each week that passes, pair now find themselves on the shopping lists of many teams’ recruitment departments. Due to Napoli’s rank in the European soccer hierarchy, there is every chance that their biggest names will be plucked off in the summer. That is, unless the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium outfit goes on to win the Champions League for the first time. 

You certainly cannot rule that out after looking at the bracket for the last eight and beyond. Spaletti’s men have certainly received the easier half of the draw. Failure to reach the final would certainly be considered the biggest opportunity missed.

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Image via UEFA Champions League official site

AC Milan vs. Napoli Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

TeamMPGFGAGDxGxGAxGD
AC Milan8137+6128.2+3.9
Napoli8256+1921.79.9+11.8

Matchup History

The two teams are yet to meet in the Champions League. But, with the pair both being members of Serie A, each side will know how the other operates. This is why it is set to be such a fascinating encounter. 

AC Milan vs. Napoli Champions League Odds: Bets To Consider

Napoli to win ()

I mentioned above that Napoli was on the wrong end of a 4-0 loss to AC Milan recently. And although it may have just added more balance to this tie, there is a sense that Spaletti’s men were already looking ahead to this encounter.

Because although that 4-0 loss looks massive in the context of simply looking at results, the context of Napoli all but winning this season’s edition of Serie A is forgotten. Such is the gap at the top, they can easily afford to apply the brakes on a domestic front.

Wind things down a level or two back home, and keep yourself as fresh as possible for a European conquest. That will be the mantra from the manager. And soon we will see if his players have adhered to the message from above.

Not only that, but Napoli will feel that they have a score to settle after their recent domestic drubbing. A score that can be settled by earning themselves a first-leg advantage at the San Siro and making life a lot harder for AC Milan.

There may be not a great deal of difference between the two teams in terms of the sportsbook’s odds. But the key is that Napoli is the slight favorite at plus odds and even away from home, this is too good for me to ignore.

Personally, I feel that the sportsbooks have read too much into that recent 4-0 win for Pioll’s men. I am not complaining though, as I am getting more juice when it comes to backing Napoli. 

Over 3.5 Goals (+260)

Not only do I think Napoli will win but there will be plenty of goals to go alongside it. They may have lost 4-0 in Italy’s Serie A a week or so ago, but I honestly would not rule out the same size victory in Milan.

Because on most occasions this season, Napoli has been simply devastating in attack. They average more than two goals per league game in Italy, and they have scored 25 goals in this season’s Champions League. This means Napoli is not only averaging 3.13 goals per Champions League encounter, but they also rank as the top scorers in this season’s competition. This will certainly have AC Milan concerned before kickoff. 

At the same time, Milan may have their uses when it comes to my second bet. Although I cannot see them winning at the San Siro, a goal in consolation is not outside the realm of possibility either.

Therefore, I have decided to back over 3.5 goals this coming Wednesday. Four or more is the deal and this could come in a 3-1 away win or even a more emphatic 4-0 victory. Truth be told, a 2-2 draw would also work but it would scupper the bet above.

However, I do not think it is going to be an encounter that sees the spoils shared. Not only am I confident that Napoli win the first leg, but they also create a lead that almost makes the second leg rather redundant.

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