Aaron Rodgers Rumors Tracker: How Speculation Is Impacting NFL Futures Markets

Posted By Brett Gibbons on July 26, 2021 - Last Updated on July 27, 2021

Another day, another Aaron Rodgers rumor.

The latest is from NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, who tweeted Monday that Rodgers “indicated to people close to him” that he will be playing for the Green Bay Packers this coming season. Rapoport’s tweet comes two days after Rodgers and star Packers WR Davante Adams both hinted at a “last dance” on Instagram, but as of Monday afternoon there has not been any concrete information coming from either the Packers or Rodgers regarding his playing status for 2021.

The wild ride that was the Packers betting market this offseason is worth noting, and may not yet be over. This article will follow the landmark reports and how those events moved Packers (and other NFL teams) futures markets each step of the way.

Update: ESPN’s Adam Schefter also had an update on Rodgers’ status Monday afternoon, tweeting: “Packers are offering concessions and are close to an agreement that would bring Aaron Rodgers back to Green Bay for at least this season, sources tell ESPN. Deal is not done but it is close.”

Packers prices on the move

Here are the best current Packers prices. Click on the price you like to bet now.

July 26: Aaron Rodgers indicates that he will play for Green Bay

Monday’s news prompted sportsbooks, including DraftKings, to pull some futures on Rodgers and the Packers. The futures that did remain up immediately fell in favor of Green Bay; their Super Bowl odds were cut from +2800 to +1400 within minutes and their odds to win the NFC jumped from +1800 to +800.

Win totals (previously at 8.5), odds to make the playoffs (-140 to miss the playoffs), and division odds (they were second at +175) were pulled. The line for their Week 1 matchup against the Saints was also pulled, where the Packers had been 3.5-point underdogs.

PropOdds (as of July 26)Odds (as of July 25)Odds (as of April 29)
Regular season winsOTB8.5 (-110)11 (-110)
To win Super Bowl LVI+1400+2800+1200
To win NFC+800+1800+550
To win NFC NorthOTB+175-110
To make playoffsOTBNo (-140)OTB

July 12: Packers futures begin downward slide

On July 12, the Packers were among the favorites in the NFC to win the Super Bowl at +1700. They were also +850 to win the NFC, fourth among conference teams at the time. However, over the next two weeks those futures began a rapid downhill slide.

Ultimately, they bottomed out at +2800 to win Super Bowl LVI and +1800 to win the NFC (July 25). Their projected win total fell over the course of the offseason from 11 to 8.5 and their standing as the NFC North favorite was lost. Minnesota (+150 as of July 25) became brief favorites in the division over Green Bay (+175).

April 29: Adam Schefter draft night report

There were previous rumblings that Aaron Rodgers wasn’t happy with his situation in Green Bay – mostly in response to their first-round selection of Jordan Love in 2020 – but there wasn’t much in the way of a call to action until April 29. Just hours before the first round of the NFL Draft kicked off, ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted that Rodgers had told team officials that he did not want to return to the Packers this season.

Before Schefter’s tweet, Green Bay was among the favorites in the NFL to win Super Bowl LVI (+1200). The Packers are coming off back-to-back NFC Championship game appearances and 13-win seasons. But with Rodgers’ status up in the air, Packers futures began a downward spiral.

Aaron Rodgers futures market movement

Here are the best current Aaron Rodgers futures prices for the 2021-22 season. Click on the price you like to wager now.

The reigning MVP returned to being one of the frontrunners for the award on Monday at DraftKings Sportsbook. Before Rapoport’s tweet, Rodgers sat at +2000 to win this year’s MVP award – behind players like Justin Herbert and Matthew Stafford. Rodgers’ odds jumped to +1400 after the report, putting him behind only Patrick Mahomes (+500), Josh Allen (+1000), and Dak Prescott (+1200).

His odds to win Offensive Player of the Year remained unchanged at +1800.

How other NFL teams’ futures have moved

Following Schefter’s Draft night tweet bomb, NBC Sports’ Mike Florio reported that an “unimpeachable source” confirmed to him a wish list of teams Rodgers would like to be traded to. The teams were the Las Vegas Raiders, San Francisco 49ers, and Denver Broncos (notedly, not necessarily in that order).

Through rumors and reports, the Broncos became the frontrunners for Rodgers. DraftKings Sportsbook listed the Broncos (+200) as the favorite team other than the Packers to have Rodgers in uniform in 2021-22. Denver’s Super Bowl LVI odds jumped from +6600 longshots to an incredible +1400 and Denver garnered the third-most bets to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM.

As the offseason progressed, Denver settled into a more modest +3500 to win Super Bowl LVI. That mark remained unchanged through the latest news on Monday.

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