Report: Aaron Rodgers, Packers Negotiating; Big Favorite To Stay

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on March 1, 2022
Aaron Rodgers

While the NFL is mostly in a holding pattern until the new league year begins in a few weeks, there is an Aaron Rodgers development.

Ian Rapoport reported Aaron Rodgers and his reps are working on a deal with Green Bay that would potentially see him remain with the Packers on a short-term deal. Let’s check in on futures prices revolving around the back-to-back MVP.

What Are The Odds Aaron Rodgers Returns To Green Bay?

DraftKings Sportsbook has a market up for Aaron Rodgers’ next team. Keep in mind these numbers need to be taken with a heaping helping of salt. The limits are likely small. But, it’s the closest thing we have to a market reflection on Rodgers’ destination for the 2022 season.

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Green Bay
Bet now
-330
Denver
Bet now
+350
San Francisco
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+800
Indianapolis
Bet now
+1000
Pittsburgh
Bet now
+1200
Tampa Bay
Bet now
+1400
Tennessee
Bet now
+2000
New Orleans
Bet now
+2000

The market has prices for the entire league, but these are the eight teams considered to have the best chance of landing Rodgers. Without adjusting for vig, that’s about a 76% chance Rodgers returns to Green Bay.

The fact Rodgers’ team is working with the Packers on a deal that would see him return in the short-term has to be considered a positive for their chances here.

It’s a bit of a surprising development after he didn’t sound especially excited to return in his post-game presser following the playoff loss. In fact, he called it a “tough decision” and seemed reflective of his time in Green Bay almost as it was now in the past.

Who will take GB Packers 1st snap in 2022 regular season?

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Aaron Rodgers
Bet now
-330
Jordan Love
Bet now
+300
Any Rookie QB
Bet now
+750
Jameis Winston
Bet now
+800
Marcus Mariota
Bet now
+1000
Carson Wentz
Bet now
+1200
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Bet now
+1200
Jimmy Garoppolo
Bet now
+1200
Gardner Minshew
Bet now
+1200

How Have Packers Futures Odd Moved?

Here’s a look at how the odds for Packers futures have moved starting when DraftKings Sportsbook released the first 2022-23 Super Bowl markets during this year’s playoffs:

Opening OddsOdds As Of Feb. 13Current Best Price
+1000+1600

The market initially looked skeptical of Green Bay, perhaps drawing pessimism from Rodgers’ post-game comments. The line climbed but has slowly started to shorten in the weeks since.

Green Bay has an unusually wide range of outcomes for an NFL team coming off multiple 13-win seasons.

Rodgers have obviously won the last two MVPs. Even if you think he has overperformed his talent level after he looked clearly in decline prior to that, he seems almost certain to be a top-five QB, top 10 at the very least.

Bringing back Rodgers would mean almost certainly bringing back superstar WR Davante Adams, at least on a one-year franchise tag.

Combining that with their talented and youthful defense, the Packers have an inner circle Super Bowl contender. Their needed fixes would be relatively minimal and shouldn’t be too hard to find, things like cornerback depth and a quality second wide receiver.

Current Packers Futures

Two things to remember:

  • The market had the Packers as Super Bowl favorites going into this year’s playoffs. They spent the majority of the season with a price in the single digits around +600.
  • Aaron Rodgers said he wants to make a decision prior to the beginning of free agency. Negotiations can begin March 14.

Given these two things, the Packers at +1500 would seem to be much too long a price if you believe Rodgers will return. And the time to get in on that price might be ticking away.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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